This reminds me of Harry's insistence Barbour couldn't break 55% or whatever.
To be fair Jesse Helms never got over 55% either. I think Josh is probably right on this. Even Bush failed to break 55-56%.
Dole in a much better year against a much weaker candidate only got 53% in 2002.
Jesse Helms was so polarizing that it was impossible for him to get over 55% of the vote. His ceiling was 53% and his floor was probably 48%. Kay Hagan is not winning this election, period, unless Dole has some scandal come out. While she isn't the greatest senator in the world, she hasn't done anything to warrant her being voted out of office. She'll get around 54% of the vote or so to Hagan's 45% and move right along with her life. The only person that would've beaten Dole in this race is Mike Easley, but rest assured, he doesn't want to run and probably never will.
Kay Hagan isn't a stronger candidate than Erskine Bowles. Bowles had some experience, while I have no idea what Hagan is. We can argue this all day. Hagan won't beat Burr either. I think he'll break the streak because 2010 will be (hopefully) a GOP year where the environment will be much nicer to the GOP. If Easley does run, Burr would probably lose.
