McCain/Sanford vs. Obama/Sebelius

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

McCain 303
Obama 235

Obama does better out west but McCain does well in the NE with the help of Lieberman in Connecticut. He takes Pennsylvania and New Hampshire by small margins.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

After listening to his speech tonight, I am sure he will not win the general election. He is VERY liberal, oh my God. His speech sounded like a socialist talking! There's no way he gets by the general election. I actually think he may be a weaker candidate, once people learn about his plans, than Hillary. evilmexicandictator may actually be right with his map. He's way too liberal, my goodness! He makes Kerry look conservative!

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Uh-huh.

Why does that seem so far fetched? He's very popular in Connecticut.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

After listening to his speech tonight, I am sure he will not win the general election. He is VERY liberal, oh my God. His speech sounded like a socialist talking! There's no way he gets by the general election. I actually think he may be a weaker candidate, once people learn about his plans, than Hillary. evilmexicandictator may actually be right with his map. He's way too liberal, my goodness! He makes Kerry look conservative!

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Uh-huh.

Why does that seem so far fetched? He's very popular in Connecticut.

A. get over yourself...your not funny
B. He might be liked in Connecticut[so you think]...but your party doesnt hold a very favorable view of him. If he campaigns for him [in the northeast...and as possibly his Veep] you can kiss McCain numbers in New England goodbye.

A. Why do you think I am being funny? I'm not joking--Obama sounded extremely liberal tonight. Why can't you accept other people's views on him? Why are Obama supporters so thin skinned? The election will not be a cakewalk. All of his policies are extremely left winged. Are you going to deny that?

B. Lieberman won't be McCain' veep. McCain is popular in the NE for a Republican and Obama doesn't do as well as Hillary. I'm just saying, it's possible, just like Obama supporters claim that Obama will win VA, OH, IA, NM, NV, NC and FL.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama:  364
McCain:  174

Obama continues his charisma orgasm and pulls most independents and many liberal Republicans over.

I think people are really underestimating the chances of a possible landslide.

We're too used to the bitter divide of the past 15 years.

Remember how bitterly divided Germany was during the Weimar Republic only to be unified in the blink of an eye by a very charismatic racist nut job.  Only this time the unification is positive.

Obama will do well in the west because that is where the young people are.

NC would flip before Tennessee and Kentucky would if Obama is the nominee. But I'm not going to argue .. it's only possible for Obama to win in this fashion. McCain might as well not even run. But I'm a hack and people who think Obama will win are not.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama:  364
McCain:  174

This is getting really out of control. I am serious when I say you ought to look into help.

Stop being a hack, Phil. You know this is what will happen. It is you and I that need to get help for our racism.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The Republicans in this thread are being ridiculous. Poll after poll shows Obama doing better than McCain, crushing him in a number of supposed swing states. Obama is young and inspiring. McCain is old and negative. The economy is plumetting and McCain has tied himself to an unpopular war. Also, I don't know if the Republicans here know this, but there were some elections in US history where the winner netted more than 300 EVs.

The general election is nine months away. He is the 'it' candidate right now. Once people start learning about his record, I can assure you the tone will change. Right now the far left wing of the party is in control and pushing him forward.

Obama:  364
McCain:  174

This is getting really out of control. I am serious when I say you ought to look into help.

Stop being a hack, Phil. You know this is what will happen. It is you and I that need to get help for our racism.

Because only this registers with you people:

anything less shall never happen...EVAR
not even the devine powers of Obama the Almighty can save his homestate...

Please, in the maps I made I gave Obama CO, IA, IL, the NE sans NH and Penn, etc.. you're being ridicules now.

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The same can be said about McCain. People don't know that he's flip-flopped on issue after issue. People don't know the extent to which he is tied to the Bush administration, to its failed economic policy, to its failed foreign policy. McCain is still the "maverick", the moderate Republican who's a complete repudiation of Bush. People still haven't seen him debate or speak.

Also, every time Obama campaigns in a state, every time people get to know him, his poll numbers go up. McCain, meanwhile, is a lackluster campaigner who can't raise money without flip-flopping and running to lobbyists and only won the nomination because of a split in the conservative vote.

Once Republicans learn more about Obama, they will unite behind McCain. I think Michelle Obama helped spark that today when she proudly announced to the world that she hasn't been proud of this country at anytime before today.

And beating the "Iraq is a failed state" won't make as much sense when Iraq is having more elections by November and the generals on the ground are saying that Al-Qaeda is on the run and violence continues to drop. And, if Bush is withdrawing troops by then, the Democrats argument is moot point.

The war may have been wrong, but why keep living in 2003 and saying "We need to get out now" and ignoring what is currently going on. Pulling out and leaving a power vacuum in the Middle East for Iran isn't the best thing for this nation.

Also, the President has little control over the economy. The tax cuts got us out of a recession in 2002 and brought the government record revenues. People were making money. The President, whether it be Obama or McCain, will have little control over it. I can promise you that raising taxes on businesses and the wealthy is a wonderful way NOT to grow an economy. It's impossible to grow it from the bottom up. Raising the minimum wage, taxing the hell out of the rich will not lead to a better economy. The poor who get all that money will not be investing it, that's for sure.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

OMG LOLZ MCCAIN RULEZ CUZ HE SURVIVES TILL THE ELECTSHUN!@#!I#!  OBAMA SUCKS!#@!  I HATE THINGS OTHER PEOPL ELIKER#

Very mature. That's exactly the way Phil and I have been acting throughout this thread.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Um... I think that McCain winning Connecticut or Pennsylvania or Wisconsin is more "insane" than winning the west or Virginia. I think most people would agree that a candidate of the incumbent party winning during a recession, an unpopular war, and the term of a 28% approval-rating President is "insane."

When did I say that everyone knows Obama? I was making the point that no one really knows McCain or Obama yet. There is still plenty of time for both candidates to be defined. But, so far, whenever Obama is introduced to new voters, they like him, despite what the Clinton machine (which I would argue is more powerful, more smoothly run than whatever Karl "the Republicans will hold congress in 2006" Rove throws at us) has tried.

When you first hear Obama speak, you do feel inspired. Even I like the way he speak .. the same with Huckabee. But good speeches don't equate to great leaders. People are voting based on what he says.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

In 2004, an incumbent president during a time of war with a decent economy barely defeated a lackluster candidate. Again, whoopee.

LOL the spin!

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Haha, right. Ok.

You seriously think that Bush's defeat of John Kerry was some masterful political task, that only a genius like Karl Rove could have accomplished? Riiiiight...

Okay, you can dismiss my point, but it's valid. On the issues: Iraq? Obama. Iran? Obama. Healthcare? Obama. The economy? Obama. The environment? Obama. What issues is McCain more mainstream than Obama on?

The GOP picked up many congressional seats in 2004. The war wasn't going well and Bush's approval rating was below 50% at most points during the election, yet he won with 51% of the popular vote and won Ohio and Florida by safe margins. The GOP also countered the HUGE Democratic voter turnout pushes by the media to vote for Kerry which people said would blow away the GOP. And guess what, they did it.

I'm done arguing. It's obvious that no one here will ever believe Obama has any negative aspects at all. He's better on just about every issue known to man. He's going to magically talk to rogue states and terrorists to reach peace agreements. Wow. It's a lost cause to win an argument with you all. It's clear you believe Obama will win in a landslide and only he can do it. Only he can do anything worthwhile.

He's a far left candidate and yet everyone believe he is some how mainstream. His victory speech tonight, in which he tried to explain some of his positions, was essentially telling everyone that he was a traditional liberal, left wing candidate. How anyone can dispute that is beyond me--and it isn't just helping the poor. His whole platform is one of a leftist.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

AHDuke99,

You're ridiculous, and it's obvious that you're not listening to any of us.

NONE OF US are saying that Obama is some perfect, negativeless anomaly. Only you're saying that.

The fact is, despite your ridiculous far-right attacks on mainstream policies like a minimum wage and a pull-out from Iraq, it is your candidate, not ours, that sits far, far away from the center.

Have you not been reading this thread, or am I just seeing things? You just said Obama would be better than McCain at just about everything. Sounds like he's pretty perfect to me.

Obama is a good speaker, but is an empty head in an empty suit. 

The guy was at the top of his class at Harvard Law and was the editor of the Harvard Law Review. He is the most naturally intelligent candidate on either side.

Last time we elected an intellect as President, things didn't turn out that well. Good scholars don't make good Presidents.

You seriously think that Bush's defeat of John Kerry was some masterful political task, that only a genius like Karl Rove could have accomplished? Riiiiight...

You forget the accomplishments they made with Congressional races?

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"The economy," "Healthcare," "The environment"...it's pointless to argue this with you. You are so set in believing that vague Obama is so mainstream on such general topics.

Er... they would have gained 0 seats if not for the illegal redistricting in Texas. How is tying, if not for cheating, an accomplishment?

Alright, more specific issues, if you'd like. Universal healthcare? Obama. Minimum wage? Obama. Taxes? Obama. Terrorism? Obama. Pulling out of Iraq? Obama. Pursuing alternate energy? Obama. Seriously, name me some issues that McCain is more mainstream than Obama on.

Very nice example. Universal healthcare is the mainstream norm now? If it is so greatly demanded, why can't be pass it tomorrow? Higher minimum wage will only make job hunting for teenagers tougher because it is they who make minimum wage. Economics 101 tells you that. That won't raise the standard of living, and most full time workers make more than minimum wage. It will increase unemployment. Taxes? Higher taxes are a better thing? That's your opinion. Terrorism? What does that even mean? Losing in Iraq is the best choice? Taking the word of a madman is a good thing? I know I don't trust them. Alternate energy? Well, since McCain supports greenhouse caps as well, I guess that's a tie.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama wins all the Kerry states + Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and probably Missouri.  Florida is possible but unlikely.

.

Oh Please. I'll give you Colorado, Iowa and Nevada, but Ohio and Virginia as sure bets? Probably Missouri? And, of course, McCain has no chance at any blue states. I can't believe I am the hack! This is outrageous...

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Just like Edwards delivered North Carolina for Kerry in 2004?

Oh Please. I'll give you Colorado, Iowa and Nevada, but Ohio and Virginia as sure bets? Probably Missouri? And, of course, McCain has no chance at any blue states. I can't believe I am the hack! This is outrageous...

Dude, we're in 2008, not 2004. Things have actually changed over the past four years.

Dude, I am aware of that. But saying those states are sure things is very erroneous. Is it impossible? No,he could win them all, but to claim today, 9 months from the election, that he will carry all of those states, it's ridicules.

The Obama cult has become more creepy than the Ron Paul cult.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

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So the generals on the ground saying Al-Qaeda is on the run and the government making progress is just irrelevant to the whole scheme of things? How would pulling out now and causing chaos help matters? We'll have to deal with it at some point. Maybe it was wrong to go in, but why make it an even bigger mess now?





But I can't argue this all night. It's been fun.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

keystone phil, you are dramatically overstating the importance of 'experience' in an election. People vote for who looks to be the best person, not who has the longest CV. The Presidency isn;t a Lifetime Achievement Award.

Though of course, McCain's supposed experience itself is overrated, but that's another story.

Why does Obama automatically win the "best person" title? How do you know he is a better person than John McCain? I could name many reasons on why McCain is a better person than Obama. Could you do the same for Obama? Or is it just because he is an eloquent speaker?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

keystone phil, you are dramatically overstating the importance of 'experience' in an election. People vote for who looks to be the best person, not who has the longest CV. The Presidency isn;t a Lifetime Achievement Award.

Though of course, McCain's supposed experience itself is overrated, but that's another story.

Why does Obama automatically win the "best person" title? How do you know he is a better person than John McCain? I could name many reasons on why McCain is a better person than Obama. Could you do the same for Obama? Or is it just because he is an eloquent speaker?

McCain sold out to the right. After what happened in South Carolina, he should hate George Bush. And he does. Of that I'm sure. But he refuses to make that clear. Instead, he kisses up to Bush and the establishment. It's not going to help him in the general. No sirree.

You saw what happened when Huckabee came out and said the Bush administration used a bunker mentality when going at foreign policy. There was an outcry. If McCain came out and said he hated Bush and everything about him, it would not help him in the general election. It would alienate a lot of his support than the independents could not make up for. Where you Democrats like it or not, most Republicans still respect and like Bush enough to stand up when someone attacks him.

McCain will not campaign with Bush though. That has already come out to the media, though he may employ him to fundraise at different venues.

McCain needs to right to win the election, just like Obama needs the extreme left to win for the Democrats. It would be stupid to piss them all off. It's not like they love him right now anyway. Attacking Bush wouldn't score many points in their books.


And btw, Clinton is the only Democrat who would carry Arkansas in the general. They will not vote for Obama.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

keystone phil, you are dramatically overstating the importance of 'experience' in an election. People vote for who looks to be the best person, not who has the longest CV. The Presidency isn;t a Lifetime Achievement Award.

Though of course, McCain's supposed experience itself is overrated, but that's another story.

Why does Obama automatically win the "best person" title? How do you know he is a better person than John McCain? I could name many reasons on why McCain is a better person than Obama. Could you do the same for Obama? Or is it just because he is an eloquent speaker?

McCain sold out to the right. After what happened in South Carolina, he should hate George Bush. And he does. Of that I'm sure. But he refuses to make that clear. Instead, he kisses up to Bush and the establishment. It's not going to help him in the general. No sirree.

You saw what happened when Huckabee came out and said the Bush administration used a bunker mentality when going at foreign policy. There was an outcry. If McCain came out and said he hated Bush and everything about him, it would not help him in the general election. It would alienate a lot of his support than the independents could not make up for. Where you Democrats like it or not, most Republicans still respect and like Bush enough to stand up when someone attacks him.

McCain will not campaign with Bush though. That has already come out to the media, though he may employ him to fundraise at different venues.

McCain needs to right to win the election, just like Obama needs the extreme left to win for the Democrats. It would be stupid to piss them all off. It's not like they love him right now anyway. Attacking Bush wouldn't score many points in their books.


And btw, Clinton is the only Democrat who would carry Arkansas in the general. They will not vote for Obama.

It's too late now. He should have done it long before. His insincerity has been so obvious for months that the public no longer trusts him. The right does (to some extent), but not the independent voters he banked on 8 years ago. And the war doesn't help.

You're probably right about Arkansas, though I could see a huge national Democratic swing and the Clintons campaigning heavily for Obama.

I highly doubt the Clintons will be out campaigning for Obama. This election was supposed to be hers. The only reason she ran for the Senate was because she wanted to be President. The Clintons didn't deliver Arkansas for Al Gore or John Kerry. Obama's race won't win him any votes there, either.

Race will matter in this election. It will hurt him in places like West Virginia, Kentucky, southern Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.. Should it? No--but it will. 

Also, I haven't seen any evidence that the public does not trust McCain. He's still doing very well among independents and can thank them for his nomination. Yes, turnout of the Democratic side has been higher in most of the primaries, but we'll see how that translates to the general. If anything, 2004 proved that the Republicans can play the turnout game just as well, if not better, than the Democrats. But I realize that 2008 is not 2004 .. before someone says that to me again.