I simply cannot see a scenario where the GOP wins this race unless turnout in northern VA is extremely low. Republicans have done nothing over the last year to show us they want to let go of Trump era politics.
Youngkin looks like such a smug rich white d-bag I associate with suburban Republicans so I fear he may connect with people like Trump didn't.
Even if he does win back some votes, Biden carried it with almost 70% of the vote. Even with a huge swing to get it back down to the ~60% Democrats usually get would be a huge feat for Youngkin