How will Beshear do in Elliot County?

[IceSpear]

Bevin wins. Not sure about the margin though.

[IceSpear]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

That was my #bold prediction back in December too!

#Populist Beshear will win dozens of rural Appalachian counties again if nominee!

Ice what's your bet on elliot? I'm going Tilt r unless Adkins is the nominee then I think its lean d.
Previously I would have said likely but the manchin btfo in the coal counties made me change my mind.

My "bold" prediction is that Beshear wins only three counties: Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin. Maybe if he's lucky he'll win them by a large enough margin to not get BTFO statewide too badly, but I wouldn't count on it. Atlas will be dismayed because clearly he was supposed to sweep Appalachia just like Appalachian Heroes Mark Warner, Ted Strickland, Jack Conway, Richard Ojeda, Phil Bredesen, Amy McGrath, Alison Lundergan Grimes, Sherrod Brown, Joe Manchin, etc. #ILearnedNothingFrom2016Or2018

[IceSpear]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

That was my #bold prediction back in December too!

Sadly, it still is a #bold prediction, and I'm sure the next time a "strong" Democrat runs against a "weak" or "unpopular" Republican in a dark red state or district, predicting that said Democrat will lose badly will be #bold.

I never realized Governor Kobach was elected, Governor Jealous was elected, and Governor Noem and Governor Lamont won by 60-40. Bevin can easily win, but govs always underpreform the baseline when they or their predecessors have bad approvals. Similarity, they overpreform when they or their opponent is very popular. Because in recent Governor elections, partisanship is on average only half as strong as when you are voting for a washington slot, and that half is up from only a third/fourth as strong in old times.

Nobody is denying this. But when your baseline is R+30 in a state that is continually trending to the right, well...