KY-Mason Dixon: Bevin Trails by 8

[IceSpear]

Kentucky polls are about as reliable as Nevada polls. And no polls are reliable a year before the election anyway.

[IceSpear]

Republican Governors when they unpopular trend to lose see Ernie Fletcher.

I know it wasnt an incumbent but Mary Fallin had a 13 percent approval and the GOP still held the governorship

In a double digit landslide during a D+9 Democratic wave no less.

[IceSpear]

Safe R because of POLARIZATION

Careful, these were the same type of posts people made to mock my prediction that OK-Gov was safe R whenever a good poll for the Democrats came out.

[IceSpear]

Safe R because of Racist hicks

Kansas wasn't safe r because neoliberal suburbs revolted.

Indeed. Racist KY Hicks are about to deliver Atlas another painful lesson, just as the Racist OK Hicks and Racist TN Hicks did.

[IceSpear]

Safe R because of Racist hicks

Kansas wasn't safe r because neoliberal suburbs revolted.

Indeed. Racist KY Hicks are about to deliver Atlas another painful lesson, just as the Racist OK Hicks and Racist TN Hicks did.

Yeah, just like those racist hicks in ME and MT, who couldnt vote for Democrats even if their life depended on it.....wait.

At this point, racist hicks and polarization have become buzz words to dismiss races that could or have the potential to be competitive, with all the nuance of a children's story book. Not only are these situations radically different:

(TN had a popular former governor running against a no-name, so of course they would be inflated early)

(The candidate running, and I cant stress this enough, wasnt Mary Fallin, it was the, according to polling, moderately popular Stintt. Not only that, as ONProgressive has stated, Drew Edmonson never got more than 44% in polling, ever)

You cant just slap the same argument onto every race(especially since its already fallen apart, see MT, SD, NY, New England, CA, etc.) as nuance exists in the political world. Every race is different, and has its own set of factors. For this one, you have Bevin, the incumbent, unpopular governor, vs the presumptive Democrat Beshar, the current AG. Will Beshar win? Probably not, but he still has a great chance, and dismissing this race outright from the start is just setting yourself up for failure.

Uh, what in the world do ME and MT have to do with KY? Not only did I not predict those races were safe R, I predicted Democrats would win them. So that does nothing to debunk the Racist Hick Theory.

Every state has Racist Hicks. Some more than others. In Kentucky, just as in Oklahoma and Tennessee, there are enough Racist Hicks to make the state unwinnable for Democrats barring pedophilia or some other similarly extreme situation. It's not that complicated.

If you're a popular incumbent like Manchin that got grandfathered in before Racist Hicks began to view all Democrats as members of an anti-white hate group, then you might be able to survive. But aside from that, if you're a Democrat in a state with a Racist Hick majority, you're up sh**ts creek without a paddle.

Oh, and Fallin still would've won if she was up for re-election.

[IceSpear]

I already see some poster bumping this thread in mid/late Nov '19 with a simple "LOL" after Bevin is reelected by double digits.

No need to wait, I'm already LOLing at it.

Are the “Safe R Kentucky” people just going to ignore the fact Conway never polled at 48, and got the exact vote share polls said he would, or does that ruin their narrative?

It’s Lean R, not Safe R.

Actually, Conway led Bevin by 11 points (and was at 48%) in a May poll, which was a mere 6 months before the election as opposed to this poll which is 11 months before the election.

Bevin's campaign in 2015 was so hilariously awful it honestly made me believe that he was trying to lose that race. He’s an awful candidate who was saved by the environment and a very mediocre opponent

And he still won in a landslide because it's Kentucky. What does that say?

I'll certainly concede (and I'm sure IceSpear will too) that Bevin could lose if multiple polls still show him down by 8 (with Beshear near or above 50%) in September or October. As I said, it's one very early poll, and Kentucky polls aren't the most reliable.

Agreed, though even September is too early. Remember that Bredesen was leading even in a few September polls, and we saw how that worked out, with him getting BTFO by double digits even in a D+9 Democratic wave.

Really difficult to say this far out, seems like this election (if it becomes nationalized as everything has since 2016) could end up being dissatisfaction over the budget and pensions (recall that Bevin has slashed teacher benefits and has also substantially slashed healthcare) vs "loyalty to Donald Trump". Perhaps people will finally be fed up over all of these budget cuts of which I am not sure Kentucky has seen in a long time, or polarization has finally reached a point where even gubernatorial races are pulled in on how the President is doing in a State.

Gov. Edmondson can attest to the fact that polarization doesn't matter in gubernatorial races and that local issues matter most. That's what Atlas told me when I was continually mocked for calling that race safe R.

[IceSpear]

Really difficult to say this far out, seems like this election (if it becomes nationalized as everything has since 2016) could end up being dissatisfaction over the budget and pensions (recall that Bevin has slashed teacher benefits and has also substantially slashed healthcare) vs "loyalty to Donald Trump". Perhaps people will finally be fed up over all of these budget cuts of which I am not sure Kentucky has seen in a long time, or polarization has finally reached a point where even gubernatorial races are pulled in on how the President is doing in a State.

Gov. Edmondson can attest to the fact that polarization doesn't matter in gubernatorial races and that local issues matter most. That's what Atlas told me when I was continually mocked for calling that race safe R.

Please stop acting like you alone were the one person who thought Republicans were going to win that race. That isn't true and you damn well know it.

I didn't say I was the only one who thought Republicans were going to win. But there was a substantial portion of people that thought Edmondson would win, and the majority of the people that thought Stitt would win still thought it was a competitive race or a toss up that would end up relatively close. I was the only person to call it safe R and predicted a Stitt landslide, and was relentlessly mocked for it whenever MUH POLLS came out showing it as a close race.

[IceSpear]

Safe R because of Racist hicks

Kansas wasn't safe r because neoliberal suburbs revolted.

Indeed. Racist KY Hicks are about to deliver Atlas another painful lesson, just as the Racist OK Hicks and Racist TN Hicks did.

Yeah, just like those racist hicks in ME and MT, who couldnt vote for Democrats even if their life depended on it.....wait.

At this point, racist hicks and polarization have become buzz words to dismiss races that could or have the potential to be competitive, with all the nuance of a children's story book. Not only are these situations radically different:

(TN had a popular former governor running against a no-name, so of course they would be inflated early)

(The candidate running, and I cant stress this enough, wasnt Mary Fallin, it was the, according to polling, moderately popular Stintt. Not only that, as ONProgressive has stated, Drew Edmonson never got more than 44% in polling, ever)

You cant just slap the same argument onto every race(especially since its already fallen apart, see MT, SD, NY, New England, CA, etc.) as nuance exists in the political world. Every race is different, and has its own set of factors. For this one, you have Bevin, the incumbent, unpopular governor, vs the presumptive Democrat Beshar, the current AG. Will Beshar win? Probably not, but he still has a great chance, and dismissing this race outright from the start is just setting yourself up for failure.

Uh, what in the world do ME and MT have to do with KY? Not only did I not predict those races were safe R, I predicted Democrats would win them. So that does nothing to debunk the Racist Hick Theory.

Every state has Racist Hicks. Some more than others. In Kentucky, just as in Oklahoma and Tennessee, there are enough Racist Hicks to make the state unwinnable for Democrats barring pedophilia or some other similarly extreme situation. It's not that complicated.

If you're a popular incumbent like Manchin that got grandfathered in before Racist Hicks began to view all Democrats as members of an anti-white hate group, then you might be able to survive. But aside from that, if you're a Democrat in a state with a Racist Hick majority, you're up sh**ts creek without a paddle.

Oh, and Fallin still would've won if she was up for re-election.

Not disagreeing with your ACTUAL electoral predictions ... but assuming "hick" implies rural, there is literally not a state in the nation with a "Racist Hick Majority," Icespear.

Who said hick had to mean rural? There are plenty of Racist GA Hicks in Forsyth County, for instance.