Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[IceSpear]

If the the dems steal this seat I swear to God I will never forgive them for this.

I'm sure you would've voted for Democrats in the future if they didn't "steal this seat", lol.

[IceSpear]

Whatever happened with NC's maps getting struck down? Is that still a thing? If so, this election could end up being even more irrelevant.

[IceSpear]

I don't really see any reason why McCrory could beat Cooper in a rematch considering he couldn't even win re-election in 2016 of all years. It'll probably be close though.

[IceSpear]

I think whether or not McCready wins is dependent on if Dems can keep their special election overperformances going. I mean, keep in mind that Harris, who was a tainted and weak candidate in his own right even before the scandal, probably won even without the fraud during a D+9 Democratic wave.

[IceSpear]

Considering Harris likely won even without the fraud in a D+9 Democratic wave year, it makes sense that Republicans would be at least a bit favored. But the election will be an interesting test of the political environment and seeing whether or not Republicans were able to close the enthusiasm gap, and if so to what degree. If it still ends up being a close race, much less if McCready actually wins, it'll be pretty clear that the GOP is struggling to improve their position much if at all since last November. Not that it matters all that much since 2020 is still an eternity away.

[IceSpear]

According to Politico, a district that voted 13 points to the right of the country in 2016 and 10 points to the right of the country in 2018 is a "bellwether." Uh...if you say so guys. The GOP is also apparently "fretting" about McCready's "two year long head start." Basically, this article should be titled: "GOP doing very well in the expectations setting game"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/28/trump-gop-north-carolina-election-1476636

My favorite line:

The election is serving as a testing ground for Trump’s 2020 message and strategy. Bishop has worked to nationalize the race, labeling McCready a “socialist”

It's over. Bishop by at least 20.

It's like the GOP doesn't even realize that calling every generic Democrat a "socialist" for decades has made the accusation have about as much impact on the median voter as Democrats calling Trump a Nazi does.

[IceSpear]

Wait, McCready did the same or even better in the suburbs but is going to do worse overall because of a rural collapse? What a shock. Who ever could've predicted this?! It's just SO out of the blue and unprecedented!

[IceSpear]

I think the biggest takeaway from both elections is that the urban/suburban vs. rural divide is likely to intensify in 2020.

I'm sure the usual suspects will continue to bury their heads in the sand though.

[IceSpear]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

[IceSpear]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Yes because as we all know all of rural America has a large Lumbee population......

It wasn’t just NC-09. Greg Murphy's margin in NC-03 slightly exceeded Trump's margin in 2016, if I’m not mistaken.

Not to mention literally the exact same trend happened all across the entire country in 2016 and 2018. I mean, how much more evidence do you people want? lol

[IceSpear]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Yeah this was 2016 and 2018 trends on steroids lol. I was expecting erosion in Robeson and the other rurals, but not this bad. On the bright side, if a statewide Dem is doing that well in metro Charlotte the state should be a tossup still.

I think it's fairly obvious at this point (well, it already was really) that 2020 is going to be a cage match between the rural vs. urban/suburban swings. The former won the day in 2016 and the latter in 2018, so it's best two out of three. lol