Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[IceSpear]

Looks like CA-48 won't end up being all that close.

[IceSpear]

This is a disaster for Republicans in CA.

Remember when Republicans laughed about Hillary winning the popular vote because "California doesn't matter."

LOL

[IceSpear]

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It's hilarious how arrogant these Republicans in Clinton districts were, to actually think that they were re-elected because they were beloved. They were elected to be a check on President Clinton, and what they ended up getting was lockstep foot soldiers for President Trump who vote with him 99% of the time. So they got tossed out on their sorry asses. So enjoyable to watch. Even a "far left bad fit Elizabeth Warren protege" handed Mimi her ass, LMAO.

[IceSpear]

Imagine someone telling you 3 years ago that Elizabeth Warren's protege would defeat an incumbent Republican in Orange County, CA in a district Romney won by double digits.

Through Trump, all things are possible.

[IceSpear]

#Dominating

I remember when the pundits assured me this was a pure toss up race. Clearly Rohrabacher's 30% of the vote in the jungle primary was a major sign of strength.

[IceSpear]

MidTerm Election Turnout 2018 per Dave Wasserman from Cook thus far

110,506,863 Votes

There are 2M I think to count in CA. Still, that's a pretty INSANE Turnout for a MidTerm.

That's pretty crazy. The turnout is much closer to a typical presidential election than it is to a typical midterm.

2018 estimate: ~113 million
2016: ~129 million
2014: ~78 million
2012: ~122 million
2010: ~87 million
2008: ~123 million
2006: ~81 million

[IceSpear]

Yeah, I never understood why people thought Valadao and Hurd were unbeatable juggernauts. I didn’t even move these races out of the Toss-up category when it appeared that Democrats had given up on CA-21/TX-23.

Valadao made sense given his past margins and his 28 point win in the jungle primary. Hurd... not sure what they were smoking there with the absurd Hurd +15 polls in samples where Trump was popular

It seems like the California jungle primary is nowhere near as predictive of the eventual result as the Washington jungle primary is.

[IceSpear]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

[IceSpear]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Speaking of moronic DCCC decisions, IL-13. Why exactly did we NOT target Davis? That race just sat at Lean R the entire cycle despite it being a Trump +5 or so district with a completely unremarkable incumbent. Unsurprisingly, Londrigan lost by around a point with minimal support.

They were too busy making sure Wexton won by 12 rather than 10 to target these seats.

[IceSpear]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

Only if 2020 is another Dem wave. If it's not, they'll be limited to only a few opportunities (at best) to play offense.

[IceSpear]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

Horn is a vastly underrated candidate here at Atlas. As long as OKC continues trending Democrat, that seat will get bluer.

Horn starts at tilt R for 2020 but yeah she isn't DOA like peterson.

Peterson isn't DOA. He's an underdog but can still win if Democrats do very well and he actually tries to.

Just like Bredesen wasn't DOA?

Peterson isn't going to outperform the Democratic nominee by 30+ points again, lol. He's DOA. Feel free to quote this post in 2 years if I'm wrong, but I won't be.

[IceSpear]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

Horn is a vastly underrated candidate here at Atlas. As long as OKC continues trending Democrat, that seat will get bluer.

Horn starts at tilt R for 2020 but yeah she isn't DOA like peterson.

Peterson isn't DOA. He's an underdog but can still win if Democrats do very well and he actually tries to.

Just like Bredesen wasn't DOA?

Peterson isn't going to outperform the Democratic nominee by 30+ points again, lol. He's DOA. Feel free to quote this post in 2 years if I'm wrong, but I won't be.

Completely different things you're trying to compare here, but ok.

No it isn't. It's Atlas Dems being hacks and insisting they can win an unwinnable race, exactly the same thing. And if I recall correctly, the same two people in this thread saying Peterson isn't DOA were the same people insisting Bredesen still had a chance until the bitter end. So it only makes the comparison even more fitting.

Just accept Peterson is gone. It's one seat, who cares? I know it annoys Atlas D hacks, but it is indeed possible for Republicans to win elections, especially in places where Trump did/will landslide by 30+ points.

[IceSpear]

Mia Love was so opposed to Trump's bigotry that she voted with him 99% of the time. Very brave of her.

[IceSpear]

<Sigh> I kinda like Hurd. I wish he were in a safe R seat instead of almost any other TX congresscritter in such districts.

Maybe he could move to Galveston and primary Gohmert?

You'd want Hurd to lose by 50+ points and get humiliated?

[IceSpear]

Looks like CA-21 will be the final race to be decided. Will it be D+39 and 234-201 or D+40 and 235-200?!

[IceSpear]

Valadao is scum for having the audacity to vote 99% of the time with Trump in a Clinton +16 district. He deserves to be humiliated by losing to a random bankrupt carpetbagging gringo.

[IceSpear]

Valadao is scum for having the audacity to vote 99% of the time with Trump in a Clinton +16 district. He deserves to be humiliated by losing to a random bankrupt carpetbagging gringo.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Valadao should move to OK-03 and run there instead. He already votes like he represents the Oklahoma Panhandle.

[IceSpear]

Good thing Tim walz district was lost. He voted like he was from Ca 12th in a trump +15 district.

Agreed, he's much better off as governor.

But he actually did have a 20% score, so nowhere near as bad as Valadao.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/JVLast/status/1065332106660913154

Trump actually did help the GOP in this election by getting his base out. I can only imagine how ugly it would've been for the GOP if he didn't have that ability.

[IceSpear]

btw anyone know why TJ Cox raised 2 million this cycle?
Thats a pretty damn good raise for some bankrupt gringo who carpet bagged after seeing he couldn't win in the 10th

TJ Cox is now an unbeatable titan because he took down another titan.

He unironically is though. This seat is gone for the GOP once it flips, and unless it somehow becomes a D vs. D race, I don't see how Cox loses, lol. And D vs. D seems unlikely since Republicans still have a sizable base in the district.

[IceSpear]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

[IceSpear]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

Based on past results, Rossi was not eligible for Unbeatable status.

Neither was Young Kim, but that didn't stop Atlas.

[IceSpear]

Maffei also underperformed pretty badly in 2012 too, so it wasn't just political environment or Katko's "candidate quality."

[IceSpear]

A lot of these California races have gone from D wins to D blowouts, as well as R blowouts to more modest R victories over the past few weeks. Levin is winning by 12, Rouda is winning by 7, Hill is winning by 8...and they're not even done counting yet!

[IceSpear]

Hill might win by double digits, lol.

RIP Unbeatable Titan Steve Knight