Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

RIP Greedo
RIP Rossi fanboys

Remember when Rossi was such a Strong Candidate™ that he would beat Weak Candidate™ Shrill Schrier even in a Democratic tsunami because he carried the district a decade ago?

B-b-b-b-but Democrats have NEVER won this seat before!!! And Democrats haven't won NV-GOV since, like, forever man!

Another electoral truism bites the dust, Dino Rossi loses again. Refreshing to see Democrats finally win this seat, and come reasonably close in WA-03, showing that Herrera Beutler isn't some unbeatable titan.

Hopefully WA Dems get serious about defeating Herrera Beutler in 2020 and don't give her a free pass like they did from 2012-2016.

[IceSpear]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?! NUT.

Does anyone know how many votes are left to count in FL?

[IceSpear]

so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol

And "safe R" Amodei won by about the same margin as "toss up" Susie Lee, lol.

Why the pundits were moronic enough to think perennial loser Danny Tarkanian of all people had a chance at winning a Democratic held district in a Democratic year...I will never know.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Williams will end up doing better than Quist after all.

RATINGS CHANGE: Montana: #Populist -> Neoliberal Shill

[IceSpear]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?!

I thought this was quite obvious.

Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason.

I know I’ve been a little pessimistic and have been wrong on some things but does anyone seriously think that Bill Nelson has a snowballs chance in hell. All the votes are counted?...

Just because the news sites say "100% in" doesn't mean all the votes have been counted. Despite being "100% in" it went from 50.4-49.6 to 50.2-49.8 and now to 50.1-49.9. Nobody is exactly sure how many votes are left to count.

[IceSpear]

Remember when Weak Candidate™ Lucy McBath made that race likely/safe R? LOL!

[IceSpear]

Florida is an absolute mess, as always.

[IceSpear]

Okay, if Dems win AZ, I'm calling it a wave regardless of FL.

[IceSpear]

If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020.

Replace OH/IA with GA/AZ/TX. So much for the Sunbelt Strategy being a failure solely because Ossoff lost, LOL.

[IceSpear]

Just relax. If Mrs Sinema wins this, Nelson and Espy, too, it will be anybodies guess what's happening next. Maybe Donald has no love for McConnell anymore, and then tries to fire Mike Pence?

Espy isn't winning, lol.

[IceSpear]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

Congrats Rep-elect Rouda! Congrats Timmy! Goodbye Rohrabacher (R-Moscow)!

[IceSpear]

Anita Malik and Hiral Tipernini might get within single digits when all is said and done.

[IceSpear]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave.

[IceSpear]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave.

My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave.

It's definitely an outlier...but outliers happen. You wouldn't have expected Gary Peters and Tom Wolf to win by double digits in a Republican wave. Or Harry Reid and Michael Bennet to win re-election in a Republican wave. Pretty much everything outside of Florida is consistent with a wave.

[IceSpear]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave.

My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave.

It's definitely an outlier...but outliers happen. You wouldn't have expected Gary Peters and Tom Wolf to win by double digits in a Republican wave. Or Harry Reid and Michael Bennet to win re-election in a Republican wave. Pretty much everything outside of Florida is consistent with a wave.

In all four of those races, you would expect that result if you knew who their opponents were.

Sure, but you can say the same thing here. Scott is a popular incumbent governor who outspent Nelson by a bazillion dollars and will win by like 0.1% if he's lucky. In a "Dem ripple" this race wouldn't even be in question right now.

[IceSpear]

Filling in a bubble isn't rocket science people.

We're talking about American voters here. Don't be too hard on them.

[IceSpear]

I'm just going to assume all the media outlets have been ordered by the Kremlin to not call this for Rouda. He's obviously won.

[IceSpear]

Kim is almost certainly going to lose.

Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits?
Fun times.

Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7

It seems that was a good way to tell whether a poll was junk or not. All those polls showing him evenly split in Missouri and Indiana - junk. All those polls showing him evenly split or positive in districts he lost or in Nevada/Arizona - junk.

[IceSpear]

McSally might be reluctant to go full on nutcase because she’s smart enough to know it would hurt her in a 2020 race if voters perceive her as a sore loser

Unlike Trump and the peanut gallery, McSally isn't an idiot. She knows how elections in Arizona work. She barely lost through this exact same process in 2012 and barely won through this exact same process in 2014.

[IceSpear]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

Good thing you're always wrong then.

Feel like Maricopa is going to dash our hopes ugh.

lol. The concern trolling is getting stale, henster.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1061459142030827520

^^ good point

If it wasn't for gerrymandering, Dems probably would've been a lot closer to that 63 number.

[IceSpear]

The batch that Maricopa is going to drop today is supposedly pro-McSally.

Let's see how that plays out.

Pretty sure that's been said about every Maricopa batch lately, and yet they never end up being pro-McSally.

[IceSpear]

This is just the way AZ counts votes guys. It's nothing new. Just be happy that House control didn't come down to all these glacial California races.

[IceSpear]

You mean more late ballots, which have been pro Sinema this entire time, were pro Sinema again?!

I'm SHOCKED!!!!

[IceSpear]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

Meh. I mean, who else does the AZGOP really have? Ward? lol. Gosar? lol. Schweikert? lol. Lesko? Maybe, but her big underperformance in the special (and then the general to a lesser extent) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. McSally is still probably the best candidate in the lot.