Did Susan Collins just announced her retirement?

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state in an era of increased polarization, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

[IceSpear]

Let’s see a poll in like a week or two and then talk

Does it matter what her approval rating is 2 years in advance? A year ago she had sky high approvals due to her vote against Trumpcare. Even if they are low now, that's plenty of time for them to recover, especially with more high profile moderate posturing. Americans have the attention span and long term memory of a schizophrenic drugged up goldfish.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

You are a joke around this forum because you didn't bother to do basic research.

Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin weren't even in the senate. Claire McCaskill was up again the the joke Todd Akin.

Donnelly voted for it when he was in the House, Einstein.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

You are a joke around this forum because you didn't bother to do basic research.

Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin weren't even in the senate. Claire McCaskill was up again the the joke Todd Akin.

Donnelly voted for it when he was in the House, Einstein.

My mistake.

Donnelly was up against "rape is something God intended to happen" Mourdock.

So what's the excuse for Nelson, Tester, and Brown? If Obamacare was such an impotent factor that it can be counteracted by a mere "muh Connie Mack was a weak candidate" or whatever, then clearly it didn't have anywhere near as much impact as you thought.

It's pretty obvious there was little to no penalty for voting for Obamacare two years after the fact. There may have been a penalty for Democrats who voted for it later that year in 2010. Similarly, Collins might be in trouble if the election was in a month. But it's not. 2 years is plenty of time to forget and for other issues to become far more salient than this one.

[IceSpear]

Eh, I mean, it's not like voters flat out don't care about a politician's record. Even if the voters forget about something from 2+ years prior, or perhaps never knew to begin with, they can be educated about it during the election. To say otherwise ignores politicians we know have lost primaries for being insufficiently liberal/conservative or making some other bad decisions. Lipinski almost lost his, and probably in large part because someone just called him out on his record for once in an actual campaign that had actual resources. McCain's 2016 margin was significantly smaller than past elections and it's clear his record had turned some people on him. Crowley lost because it turns out the people wanted something different and he got a proper challenger in a year where liberal energy was off the charts. And this puts aside the fact that yes, sometimes people do remember past slights and hold it against politicians for years. I still know people who won't let Liz Warren off the hook for not endorsing Bernie in 2016. I talked to them about this last week. And these are not super political people either. I still can't believe they care so much about some stupid endorsement that wouldn't have made a difference anyway 2 years later.

I get what you're saying, and I usually agree with you on a host of issues, but I think you don't give voters enough credit here. Kavanaugh's confirmation is a big issue to Democrats, and Maine may not be a Solid Democratic state, but it's not really a purple state either. If Democrats polarize against Collins, and conservatives still remain skeptical of her because she doesn't do literally everything they want, she could definitely be in trouble. Whether that will actually happen though, we'll just have to see. I'm not convinced it will, but I'm not convinced it won't either. I do think it's possible.

Let’s see a poll in like a week or two and then talk

Does it matter what her approval rating is 2 years in advance? A year ago she had sky high approvals due to her vote against Trumpcare. Even if they are low now, that's plenty of time for them to recover, especially with more high profile moderate posturing. Americans have the attention span and long term memory of a schizophrenic drugged up goldfish.

I mean, I’d err on the side of Maine voters having retarded goldfish syndrome in two years, but it also wouldn’t be the first time a once-popular Senator/Governor in a state that leaned against their party suddenly saw their stock plummet among the state’s voters over a given issue. I don’t think we can completely rule it out.

I was being a bit hyperbolic in my initial statement, but it's still true that someone predicting something won't matter for an election 2 years in advance is going to be correct far more often than someone predicting something will matter for an election 2 years in advance. So I'm always going to side with the odds here. I mean really, just think of the dozens (hundreds? thousands?!) of things people thought would be relevant to the 2016 election in 2014 that ended up not mattering in the slightest bit.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

You are a joke around this forum because you didn't bother to do basic research.

Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin weren't even in the senate. Claire McCaskill was up again the the joke Todd Akin.

Donnelly voted for it when he was in the House, Einstein.

My mistake.

Donnelly was up against "rape is something God intended to happen" Mourdock.

So what's the excuse for Nelson, Tester, and Brown? If Obamacare was such an impotent factor that it can be counteracted by a mere "muh Connie Mack was a weak candidate" or whatever, then clearly it didn't have anywhere near as much impact as you thought.

It's pretty obvious there was little to no penalty for voting for Obamacare two years after the fact. There may have been a penalty for Democrats who voted for it later that year in 2010. Similarly, Collins might be in trouble if the election was in a month. But it's not. 2 years is plenty of time to forget and for other issues to become far more salient than this one.

Nelson and Brown won reelection in 2012 when Obama won their state.

Trump is probably not going to win Maine in 2020.

Nelson would've easily still won in a landslide even if Obama lost Florida. Obama won Florida by 1 point while Nelson simultaneously won by 13 points. Brown also likely would've won even if Obama lost Ohio considering he outperformed him by a few points. And that still doesn't explain Tester.

[IceSpear]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

Uh, excuse me...when are my takes ever not reasonable?

I'm old enough to remember when Dems vowed to make Chuck Grassley pay for obstructing Garland...then within a week Trump did/said something stupid and distracted them with shiny objects, they all forgot, Grassley was a "reasonable sane moderate" again worthy of tons of crossover support, and then they got unceremoniously BTFO. And this was a mere 8 months before the election rather than 2 years! I fully expect something similar this time. In a month people will probably forget Kavanaugh's name and be focusing on Trump calling brown kids monkeys or something, and they'll love Susan Collins again because she had the "courage and bravery" to be a "maverick" and release a strongly worded statement condemning him for his tone.

[IceSpear]

Comparing Collins to Grassley is a bit disingenuous IMO. Grassley may have gotten some crossover support, but he has never built himself up as an honorable, consensus builder like Collins.

Normally, I agree with you, Icespear, about certain events/votes being overblown. But I don't think that is the case with Collins. It doesn't mean she will lose in 2020, but I don't think things will go back to normal for her after her vote yesterday.

Grassley always got tons of crossover support, even in 2016 despite all the Dems' impotent threats. Why? Because he was a "reasonable sane moderate" next to Great Satan Trump. The only thing Collins has to do is wait until the voters forget who Brett Kavanaugh is (won't take long) and do more faux posturing against Trump, and suddenly all the dullards will eat it up and love her again. People here need to keep in mind that we're all in the top 1% of political awareness. We're all in our own little bubble here. Most American voters are dumb, uninformed, and only start really paying attention like a month before the election.

[IceSpear]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

Uh, excuse me...when are my takes ever not reasonable?

I'm old enough to remember when Dems vowed to make Chuck Grassley pay for obstructing Garland...then within a week Trump did/said something stupid and distracted them with shiny objects, they all forgot, Grassley was a "reasonable sane moderate" again worthy of tons of crossover support, and then they got unceremoniously BTFO. And this was a mere 8 months before the election rather than 2 years! I fully expect something similar this time. In a month people will probably forget Kavanaugh's name and be focusing on Trump calling brown kids monkeys or something, and they'll love Susan Collins again because she had the "courage and bravery" to be a "maverick" and release a strongly worded statement condemning him for his tone.

Do you believe Collins will win reelection in 2020, if she runs again? Your overall pessimism about America and the American electorate seems to be relatively well justified at this point.

She could retire or lose the primary. If she runs and wins the primary then yeah, I think she wins. Maybe not by the gaudy margins she usually gets, but Maine will probably be within single digits again, so I don't see her having much of a problem getting the needed crossover votes for victory. Especially once she releases strongly worded statements condemning Trump for using the N word on Twitter in October 2020.

[IceSpear]

Tom Allen wasn’t a serious challenger to Collins? That’s news to me.

And 2008 was a context that was favorable to Rs?