FL-27: Hurricane Donna to hit Miami next Tuesday

[IceSpear]

Just be honest Jeppe, the reason you support Donna is the same reason you support Nixon, Pressley, Graham and Riamondo.

This is hardly news. Jeppe has openly said the only things he cares about in a candidate is a pro-choice woman

Yeah, I wasn't aware that Jeppe has ever denied this fact lol.

[IceSpear]

So something I just learned upon looking up her Republican opponent that shocked me, well for one she is gorgeous:


But the shocking thing is that she is 56 years old! I was so sure she had to be one of those 30s/early 40s candidates, once I found her actual age my jaw dropped.

Not that that is a reason to vote for her, but quite frankly I wouldn't mind her winning so a non-terrible candidate can win in 2020 as long as the Democrats still win the House. If not then hopefully Shalala is just running at her age so she can add "member of US House" to her bragging list and retires after a term. She is by far the worst Democratic candidate running in a competitive district this year. The only one who'd be able to challenge her for that was that pro-Trump DA in Pennsylvania, but he thankfully lost the primary in a pleasing upset.

Iron Deadbeat Jailbird, Leslie Cockburn, and T.J. Cox are worse, though it's a stretch to call these districts "competitive." Then again, it's a stretch to call FL-27 "competitive" too.

[IceSpear]

I am endorsing the cute lady because i like her policies

Donna Shalala thanks you for your endorsement.



Everyone knows GGILFs are all the rage these days, GILFs are so last year.

[IceSpear]

T J Cox lives in a District 2 Districts to the North of the District he is trying to represent.

Randy Bryce is a strong candidate, and IceSpear trolling on the topic is very annoying.

He's deeply flawed, but he's also a strong fundraiser and inspires the activist base. I feel as if his scandals are overrated, remember Dubya was arrested for DUI.

If it wasn't for Dubya's DUI he would've won comfortably, not lost the popular vote and almost lost the electoral college*.

And Solid, you unironically thought that Paul Nehlen would get a higher percentage of the vote than Cathy Myers, so forgive me if I don't consult you as an expert on this race (or anything, for that matter.)

*potentially actually did

[IceSpear]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

[IceSpear]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

That literally would have been true for Moore as well if he wasn't a pedophile. And you're not helping your case with the Iron Deadbeat Jailbird comparison. The fact that some people entertain the idea of Shalala losing while Bryce simultaneously wins is downright hilarious.

[IceSpear]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

That literally would have been true for Moore as well if he wasn't a pedophile. And you're not helping your case with the Iron Deadbeat Jailbird comparison. The fact that some people entertain the idea of Shalala losing while Bryce simultaneously wins is downright hilarious.

Much like how under no scenario could Feingold lose while Reid won...

Races don't always stay the same. WI-01 could rapidly become Safe R, or it could become a Tossup. Who knows. In FL-27, Salazar clearly has the momentum and a credible poll shows her down only 4.

As for Moore, he was only leading Jones by single digits before the allegations. Jones could have won even without them.

Also interesting you don't believe candidate quality matters in FL-27 but Bryce's flaws somehow doom him to defeat.

Uh, Moore lost by 1 point even as a pedophile. He obviously would have won if he wasn't a pedophile. Unless you're suggesting being a pedophile helped him? Or that it had no effect, which would contradict the rest of your post, as it would be perhaps the most extreme example ever of candidate quality being completely irrelevant.

Remind me again which of Shalala's problems are as bad as multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, multiple delinquent child support payments, and your own brother starring in an against you. Any Democrat would've had an uphill fight in WI-01 due to the fundamentals of the district, Jailbird's problems just took it from long shot to no shot. And yeah, maybe Shalala could underperform what you'd "expect" a Dem to win this seat by, but there's no way in hell she's anywhere near bad enough to actually lose a Clinton +20 open seat during a Dem wave year.

[IceSpear]

Indeed. I'd triage her immediately.

She should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

That literally would have been true for Moore as well if he wasn't a pedophile. And you're not helping your case with the Iron Deadbeat Jailbird comparison. The fact that some people entertain the idea of Shalala losing while Bryce simultaneously wins is downright hilarious.

Much like how under no scenario could Feingold lose while Reid won...

Races don't always stay the same. WI-01 could rapidly become Safe R, or it could become a Tossup. Who knows. In FL-27, Salazar clearly has the momentum and a credible poll shows her down only 4.

As for Moore, he was only leading Jones by single digits before the allegations. Jones could have won even without them.

Also interesting you don't believe candidate quality matters in FL-27 but Bryce's flaws somehow doom him to defeat.

Uh, Moore lost by 1 point even as a pedophile. He obviously would have won if he wasn't a pedophile. Unless you're suggesting being a pedophile helped him? Or that it had no effect, which would contradict the rest of your post, as it would be perhaps the most extreme example ever of candidate quality being completely irrelevant.

Remind me again which of Shalala's problems are as bad as multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, multiple delinquent child support payments, and your own brother starring in an against you. Any Democrat would've had an uphill fight in WI-01 due to the fundamentals of the district, Jailbird's problems just took it from long shot to no shot. And yeah, maybe Shalala could underperform what you'd "expect" a Dem to win this seat by, but there's no way in hell she's anywhere near bad enough to actually lose a Clinton +20 open seat during a Dem wave year.

Polling exists, you know. Shalala or Steil could easily lose their lead.

Also, no Democrat cares about Bryce being arrested for DUI or having his brother criticize him. Democrats do care about being completely out of touch with your constituents.

Roy Moore probably wouldn't have lost without the allegations, but his win would have been narrow.

So voters in WI-01 don't care about Iron Deadbeat Jailbird's arrests, DUIs, delinquent child support payments, and getting slammed by his own brother, but voters in FL-27 care about Shalala being old and not speaking Spanish. Sounds legit.

Also, these races don't happen in a vacuum. House races especially tend to get caught up in the political environment. If Dems are losing FL-27, I highly doubt they're having a good night at all, much less one good enough to carry WI-01.

[IceSpear]

Only if you classify winning by 10-15 points as "narrow."

He only won his Supreme Court election in 2012 by like what, 2 points or so? And that was with Obama at the top of the ticket. He was a weak and controversial candidate all around. I think it's possible he would have had another narrow win, all things considered. At the very least there seems to be more reason to believe that than a 10-15 point win.

He won it by 4 points, but keep in mind many of those results Vance got in rural Alabama were not reproducible due to a) polarization since 2012 and b) the fact that it was a federal rather than a localish/statewide election. Notice despite doing 5 points worse overall and being exposed as a pedophile, Moore still got big swings in his favor from 2012 in much of rural AL.

 (thanks Adam Griffin!)

[IceSpear]

Does Hillary speak Spanish? I guess she must if she won this district by 20 points.

#SpeakingSpanishMatters

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/donnashalala/status/1054856290126716929

Hillary Clinton is campaigning for the sh!ttiest democrats of 2018, Shalala, Menendez, I wanna barf. I just dislike Hillary so much, she needs to go away.

It could be a bonus because of whatever sympathy has been generated by the assassination attempt.

What's hilarious is that the Twitter replies to Shalala are overwhelmingly positive.

None of the replies are in Espanol though. RIP Shalala

[IceSpear]

Does Hillary speak Spanish? I guess she must if she won this district by 20 points.

#SpeakingSpanishMatters

Speaking Spanish matters for running for Congress, but not for polling states with a high Latino population.

Speaking Spanish matters to Nate Cohn, but only if you're an 87 year old Cuban who supports Salazar.

[IceSpear]

Hurricane Donna hit early in the evening.

LOL at all the #hottakes in this thread about how Dems could lose this seat even in a megagigatsunami. Or lose it at the same time they're winning FL-26 and WI-01.