With both candidates now decided, rate GA-Gov

[IceSpear]

Lean R

[IceSpear]

Kemp is ridiculous and obnoxious.  He literally aired ads about his truck.

Running vapid ads about your truck never works.

https://youtu.be/nnZw6sm_yAY

As far as being "ridiculous and obnoxious" vs "talking about the issues", I can think of a very recent high profile election where that was the case, and it didn't turn out very well for us, in Georgia or otherwise.

[IceSpear]

Kemp is ridiculous and obnoxious.  He literally aired ads about his truck.

Running vapid ads about your truck never works.

https://youtu.be/nnZw6sm_yAY

As far as being "ridiculous and obnoxious" vs "talking about the issues", I can think of a very recent high profile election where that was the case, and it didn't turn out very well for us, in Georgia or otherwise.

Notice how Scott Brown talked about ISSUES in that ad about his truck.  Brian Kemp was just talking about what a gun toting rural rube he is.

YUGE difference.

If anything, Kemp's ad was more focused on policy. He'll round up illegals in his truck and no libs are taking his guns. Sounds pretty concrete to me, as opposed to vague platitudes like "concerned about our country's direction" and "the government keeps getting bigger."

[IceSpear]

He literally aired ads about his truck.

Abrams is talking about actual issues.

So Lean R, then?

LOL.

Jon Tester's haircut is the biggest issue in Montana.

[IceSpear]

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

This is based on what exactly?

Kemp managed to go from a fringe candidate whose coalition were the toothless hillbillies of the state to Georgia GOP Superstar thanks to Drumpf's endorsement.

Kemp was going to win regardless. He still won the early vote by double digits. Trump just made it an even bigger landslide.

[IceSpear]

Lean R to Likely R.

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

Trump's numbers are worse in Georgia than any surrounding state.

Abrams is leading in polling and Kemp is a nutcase. Lean D.

Is she pulling in >50%? If not it's meaningless.

That's a literally meaningless benchmark in polling. Undecideds should not be expected to all go for Kemp.

It's not a matter of undecideds--Georgia is a 50%+1 rule state and Dems don't win runoffs in Georgia--or Abrams (or any Democrat) to win they'll have to avoid one.

The democratic coalition is higher turnout that it historically and this is a wave year. The idea that she would necessarily do much worse in a runoff is unsupported.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2008&f=0&off=3&elect=6

[IceSpear]

Lean R to Likely R.

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

Trump's numbers are worse in Georgia than any surrounding state.

Abrams is leading in polling and Kemp is a nutcase. Lean D.

Is she pulling in >50%? If not it's meaningless.

That's a literally meaningless benchmark in polling. Undecideds should not be expected to all go for Kemp.

It's not a matter of undecideds--Georgia is a 50%+1 rule state and Dems don't win runoffs in Georgia--or Abrams (or any Democrat) to win they'll have to avoid one.

The democratic coalition is higher turnout that it historically and this is a wave year. The idea that she would necessarily do much worse in a runoff is unsupported.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2008&f=0&off=3&elect=6

why does everyone always bring up 2008? That was 10 years ago, and GA has changed in those 10 years. No one is looking at MO and saying "MO was close in 2008, we should be able to win it in 2020".

Because the same reasoning for why a 2018 runoff would be competitive applies to 2008. Wave year, Democrats more enthusiastic, etc. etc.

There's also the fact that Democrats have vastly underperformed in Georgia special elections.