SC GOV 2018- megathread... James Smith (D) vs Henry McMaster (R)

[IceSpear]

The fact Haley Nimrata Randhawa only won by <5% in 2010, a large R wave year, shows how SC is n't as much even more of an R stronghold deplorable as than many believe.

[IceSpear]

It wouldn't be the biggest upset in the world.  I think we'll have to wait until October to see if there is a real trend.  The Democrats run fairly strong in the state (Vincent Sheheen pulled 47% in the disastrous year of 2010) and Smith fits in rather well with the electorate.

Only because of Nimrata Randhawa.

[IceSpear]

If James Smith cannot beat Henry McMaster ... Dems will not have a prayer at winning Governorship for a long time to come!

WHY the hell aren't there any polls?!

Polling volume in general has been extremely low this year, particularly for races that aren't seen as competitive. It's been declining for a while, but I think the upset in 2016 took yet another hatchet to the polling industry, even though the polls weren't actually as far off in the end as it seemed they were initially.

[IceSpear]

Jim Hodges (D) won in 1998.  That was 20 years ago.

SC is actually trending Democratic somewhat, moreso than MS, but no one seems to pick that up.  The white voters moving to SC from other states are a more elastic electorate than the MS white vote.

The problem is that the Charlotte suburbs in the Upcountry behave more like the Bible Belt version of the Wisconsin WOW counties than they do Cobb/Gwinnett, the OC, or NOVA.  Not to mention there's enough rural vote that Dems have to figure out how to cut into.

It'll help if Republicans ever give them another assist by nominating someone named Nimrata Randhawa again.  But Henry McMaster? No dice.

[IceSpear]

I guess if rumors that Lindsay Graham is aiming for Attorney General are correct... Graham will likely be campaigning for McMaster pretty hard. If McMaster were to lose- any chance of a Graham Attorney General will go up in smoke (since Smith would appoint his replacement).

Maybe far fetched... but this could be one reason the President wants to wait until after the election to fire Rosenstein (so he could see all of the options available- and not prematurely screw himself out of a Senator)

Linds would be the most fabulous Attorney General ever.