FL - Florida Atlantic University: Trump up 23 over Rubio and Cruz

[IceSpear]

Imagine if Rubio came in 3rd. Never gonna happen, but man...

[IceSpear]

If this breaks down to a 65/35 Clinton win, she will win the delegate count in Florida approximately 160-86. Couple this with North Carolina (she realistically could win the delegate count there 75-46) and both these states can give her a net +100 delegate advantage without Illinois, Ohio and Missouri. Bernie really needs to close the gap here or else any small wins won't matter with such a large deficit in NC and Fla on Tuesday.

It would actually be around a 139-75 gap (I'm guessing you included the superdelegates.) But yeah, it is essential that Bernie doesn't let Hillary run away with FL and/or NC. He needs to keep the margins somewhat respectable.  Or alternatively, win his own blowouts in OH/MO/IL, but that seems unlikely. In this post I gave VERY generous estimates to Bernie on the post March 15th states to manage a near tie in delegates, but even that is dependent on him not losing major ground on Tuesday. If she nets a substantial amount of delegates Tuesday, the race is over.

[IceSpear]

If this breaks down to a 65/35 Clinton win, she will win the delegate count in Florida approximately 160-86. Couple this with North Carolina (she realistically could win the delegate count there 75-46) and both these states can give her a net +100 delegate advantage without Illinois, Ohio and Missouri. Bernie really needs to close the gap here or else any small wins won't matter with such a large deficit in NC and Fla on Tuesday.

It would actually be around a 139-75 gap (I'm guessing you included the superdelegates.) But yeah, it is essential that Bernie doesn't let Hillary run away with FL and/or NC. He needs to keep the margins somewhat respectable.  Or alternatively, win his own blowouts in OH/MO/IL, but that seems unlikely. In this post I gave VERY generous estimates to Bernie on the post March 15th states to manage a near tie in delegates, but even that is dependent on him not losing major ground on Tuesday. If she nets a substantial amount of delegates Tuesday, the race is over.

She already as a +200 pledged delegate lead. If she adds another 100 on Tuesday, there is no reasonable mathematical formula to get Sanders to the nomination. Even if you want to make things competitive, there is no way Hillary gets blown out (we're talking 60/40 and above) in the large, delegate rich states left like NY, NJ, PA and CA. So, in theory, he can stay in the race and try to win "states" but in reality, he can't get the numbers to add up.

Agreed for the most part. She's actually ahead by +220, and I'd argue that a net of 50 or so would be enough to close the curtains on this primary. Bernie's Michigan miracle kept him alive. Now he's going to need a few more miracles to remain viable.

[IceSpear]

If this breaks down to a 65/35 Clinton win, she will win the delegate count in Florida approximately 160-86. Couple this with North Carolina (she realistically could win the delegate count there 75-46) and both these states can give her a net +100 delegate advantage without Illinois, Ohio and Missouri. Bernie really needs to close the gap here or else any small wins won't matter with such a large deficit in NC and Fla on Tuesday.

It would actually be around a 139-75 gap (I'm guessing you included the superdelegates.) But yeah, it is essential that Bernie doesn't let Hillary run away with FL and/or NC. He needs to keep the margins somewhat respectable.  Or alternatively, win his own blowouts in OH/MO/IL, but that seems unlikely. In this post I gave VERY generous estimates to Bernie on the post March 15th states to manage a near tie in delegates, but even that is dependent on him not losing major ground on Tuesday. If she nets a substantial amount of delegates Tuesday, the race is over.

She already as a +200 pledged delegate lead. If she adds another 100 on Tuesday, there is no reasonable mathematical formula to get Sanders to the nomination. Even if you want to make things competitive, there is no way Hillary gets blown out (we're talking 60/40 and above) in the large, delegate rich states left like NY, NJ, PA and CA. So, in theory, he can stay in the race and try to win "states" but in reality, he can't get the numbers to add up.

Agreed for the most part. She's actually ahead by +220, and I'd argue that a net of 50 or so would be enough to close the curtains on this primary. Bernie's Michigan miracle kept him alive. Now he's going to need a few more miracles to remain viable.

So pretty much winning OH and MO while keeping the average margins in the other states around/under 10?

Pretty much, though there's some flexibility of course. He could get blown out in FL, but win OH/MO/IL and come surprisingly close in NC.