MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[IceSpear]

Claire McCaskill will end up like Blanche Lincoln in 2018, it would've happened in 2012 but she lucked out with Akin. I have no doubt she will be crushed should she run for re-election, I just hope Dems realize this early and not waste too much $$ here.

Uh, no. At worst McCaskill would've performed similarly to Obama, so a 9-10 point loss. Lincoln lost by 20+ points.

Even against a non Akin she probably would've won narrowly considering the pro D climate that year. If even Tester, Heitkamp, and Donnelly could win, I don't see why she wouldn't have.

[IceSpear]

McCaskill's husband is in the ICU for heart surgery per her twitter. I hope he gets better. If doesn't, I could see McCaskill retiring. Morbid, I know, but something to consider.

Dems would likely have a better shot of holding the seat if she did retire, assuming Kander took her spot.

[IceSpear]

I think that Kander wouldn't do as well at this point, honestly. His national tours and promotional events would make for devastating attack ads for the Missouri GOP, whereas last year Kander looked way more middle-of-the-road and nonpartisan in his fantastic campaign against Blunt. I doubt he could replicate anything near his performance among Conservatives or leaners next year, however. McCaskill will rally a strong ~45% of the electorate around her and, if she can convince just a few right-leaners in rural areas that Hawley isn't as clean-cut as he sells himself, I could see her holding her seat. It's not a good shot either way, but Kander is not an upgrade and might be a significant downgrade at this point.

So they have 1 year of ammunition against Kander vs. 12 years of ammunition and voting record against McCaskill.

[IceSpear]

Kander could no longer win. His high profile criticism of Trump and all Republicans will not be popular. Nationalization of races in Red and blue states hurts the opposite party of the state.

McCaskill has not criticized Trump and Republicans?

[IceSpear]

So I took the recent poll apart by Demographics, and put it back together with what the likely actual Demographics will be, and Claire McCaskill is leading by 6% under the most conservative estimations possible.

Wow it's only January and people are already seeking to 'unbias' the polls.

It's called unskewing.

[IceSpear]

I can only imagine the reaction from Republicans if Air Claire wins once again, smashing "rising star" Hawley to pieces in the process, lol.

[IceSpear]

Craig O'Dear, a Kansas City attorney, is seriously exploring an Independent Senate bid. Ugh.

Nobody cares about these obscure independents outside of Atlas.

[IceSpear]

Damn...he so mad at Hawely:

Eric Greitens takes aim at Republicans, leaves liberal measures on midterm ballot

Lol, we're seeing from Greitens and Blankenship what would happen if a) The GOP turned their back on Trump, b) Trump lost the primary.

Looks like it really was in their best interests all along to be his butt licking peons.

[IceSpear]

http://www.kctv5.com/story/38353443/unofficial-results-arthur-defeats-corlew-handily-in-missouri-senate-special-election

Democrat Lauren Arthur won a special election in the northland - this is a PICKUP for Democrats and she won by 20 (!!!) points. To give you an idea on how big this is, the Republican incumbent won this race in 2016 62-37. Greitens is really dragging down the Republican ticket, it is a matter of whether they're able to reverse the bleeding by November.

Race Change: Toss-Up -> Lean McCaskill

Damn that is some swing.

Yeah, and it is relatively promising in the sense that if Democrats can start winning places like Clay and Platte regularly on the statewide level, it will ups go a long way towards bringing back the state into the periphery of competitiveness. Republicans are close to maxed out in the rurals.

After 2016 I’m skeptical of claims that the GOP rural vote is maxed out

While it is true that most people vastly underestimated how much further the Democrats could fall in rural areas for 2016, it's getting to the point where mathematical reality rather than pure conjecture is settling in. There's literally not much room for them to gain. Places like Leslie County, KY actually swung D in 2016 because of this. Compare to Missouri, where even in 2012 Obama was getting in the 40s/high 30s in quite a few rural counties.

[IceSpear]

wait, who would even vote for him?

Greitens had an approval of over 70% of Missouri Republicans at the end, so you do the math

Do you think Greitens is more popular than Hawley among MO Republicans to this day?

[IceSpear]

wait, who would even vote for him?

Greitens had an approval of over 70% of Missouri Republicans at the end, so you do the math

Do you think Greitens is more popular than Hawley among MO Republicans to this day?

Fortunately for Claire, she doesn’t need Greitens to win over a majority of Republicans over Hawey Doody 😉. So the point is moot.

Yeah, I was just curious.

[IceSpear]

CA-SEN: SAFE D ---> SAFE R

[IceSpear]

Hawley's campaing has finally started running ads, where up to this point it had all been outside groups pouring in against McCaskill. McCaskill's campaign has been on the air, unchallenged, since April.

I had a brief interaction with someone on one of the news websites that I frequent, who is convinced that Hawley will beat McCaskill. I told them that the polls have shown McCaskill in the lead, and that she has been working vigorously towards reelection. They however, countered by saying that Hawley hasn't been officially nominated and hasn't really started to campaign, and that McCaskill is doomed. That of course, seems to be a grave misinterpretation of that race.

People have been predicting the end of McCaskill’s political career since 2004.

Well, if you keep predicting it long enough, eventually you'll be right.

Yeah, if nothing else she'll eventually die. Though maybe her corpse could win re-election like Carnahan.

[IceSpear]

Well the primary is Tuesday. I've sort of been wondering if Hawley might actually lose. I don't think there is actually that much enthusiasm for him among Republican primary voters, and I have seen a lot of signs touting other candidates.

Whatever anti-Hawley vote there is is going to be split between the large pool of other candidates, so I highly doubt it.

[IceSpear]

Race is not a toss up. Courtland Sykes will likely be the nominee

Why do you think that?

Hawley has run a completely milquetoast, feeble campaign, Greitens was still popular with the GOP base who may feel Hawley betrayed him, and Sykes is exactly the type of personality that appeals to GOP primary voters. The complete dearth of polling for the primary as well means we have no idea how the race actually looks. Sykes probably won't atcually win but I expect him to do way better than anyone expects

Well, that was certainly a low energy prediction, lol.

[IceSpear]

Considering all the bad press Hawley's been getting for his lazy campaign, it doesn't surprise me he massively underperformed.

[IceSpear]

In 2012, Dems cast ~290k votes and the GOP cast ~603k, more than double. This time it is ~606k vs. ~664k.

RATINGS CHANGE: Safe R in 2012 -> Safe D in 2018

[IceSpear]

Hawley is so pathetic lol. He still might win anyway though just because of how the rurals don't like black people kneeling even as they vote to keep their union rights with 3-1 margins.

How come you're pessimistic about Air Claire's chances? I'm not convinced she'll win or anything, but I'm far more worried about Heitkamp and (especially) Donnelly.

[IceSpear]

Hawley is so pathetic lol. He still might win anyway though just because of how the rurals don't like black people kneeling even as they vote to keep their union rights with 3-1 margins.

How come you're pessimistic about Air Claire's chances? I'm not convinced she'll win or anything, but I'm far more worried about Heitkamp and (especially) Donnelly.

Why?

ND is far more Republican than MO and Cramer is a stronger opponent than Hawley (though that's not saying much.) You could argue Heitkamp is a stronger candidate and more personally popular than McCaskill which I'd agree with, but overall I'd bet on McCaskill winning before I'd bet on Heitkamp.

[IceSpear]

"MO turning into ND" just sounds ridiculous

Well the person who said it is ridiculous, so it's only fitting.

[IceSpear]

I can not believe we will see clean missouri, 12 dollar minimum wage, and medical weed pass yet an incumbent Democratic Senator could well lose in a Democratic wave.

Don't forget right to work getting overwhelmingly rejected!

It's almost as if Republicans vote based on identity politics, white resentment, etc. rather than Randian economic philosophy, union busting, or prohibition.

[IceSpear]

Poll Internal out, Hawley up by seven now.

Fixed.