Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.
Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.
It does?
Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?
Around this point in 2010, Republicans lead by 3-6 points.
And '94?
Beats me, but it was relatively accurate in 2008, 2010, and 2012. That seems more relevant than an election from 2 decades ago from before poll aggregation became a thing.