Do you really think MS would be a Dem pick up...

[IceSpear]

Doubtful, but with McDaniel, there is an opening.

This.

His probability of pulling off the upset would be slightly higher than Corbett's odds of winning re-election.

[IceSpear]

Doubtful, but with McDaniel, there is an opening.

This.

His probability of pulling off the upset would be slightly higher than Corbett's odds of winning re-election.

I take this back. Childers' odds are now much better than Corbett's odds of winning re-election.

[IceSpear]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

I cannot buy that.  Polling that I've seen shows that McDaniel's up 12 and only a few points weaker than Cochran.

That was one poll. Another poll showed McDaniel performing 14 points weaker than Cochran. I'm guessing the truth is somewhere in between.

[IceSpear]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

I cannot buy that.  Polling that I've seen shows that McDaniel's up 12 and only a few points weaker than Cochran.

That was one poll. Another poll showed McDaniel performing 14 points weaker than Cochran. I'm guessing the truth is somewhere in between.

Could you link me to that poll please IceSpear?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mississippi_senate_race.html