Which state is more likely to flip in a Hillary Clinton vs Jeb Bush election?

[IceSpear]

Well, if Clinton rolls to an electoral college and popular vote win in 2016 with Obama's approval ratings in the low 40's, then I will genuinely be surprised.  If the American voting public has lost confidence in Obama, it's hard to see that not transferring, at least in part, to the heir apparent of the party.  We'll just have to see.

If McCain can get 46% while Bush's approval was ~25%, why can't Hillary get 50% when Obama's approval is ~43%?

[IceSpear]

Well, if Clinton rolls to an electoral college and popular vote win in 2016 with Obama's approval ratings in the low 40's, then I will genuinely be surprised.  If the American voting public has lost confidence in Obama, it's hard to see that not transferring, at least in part, to the heir apparent of the party.  We'll just have to see.

If McCain can get 46% while Bush's approval was ~25%, why can't Hillary get 50% when Obama's approval is ~43%?

Hmm.. That's an interesting point, but what about Al Gore getting just 48% in 2000 when Bill Clinton's approval was in the 60s? Whatever percentage Hillary wins will ultimately have to do with the national mood and how she is viewed compared to the GOP candidate.

Yup, that's exactly what I meant. Incumbent president approval is overrated as a factor in an open seat election. It only matters heavily when that president is running for re-election.