How many incumbent Republican Senators get Tea Partied out?

[IceSpear]

McDaniel has neo-Confederate associations, but that isn't exactly hurting him.

That doesn't hurt his conservative credentials, he still seems as conservative as before. J.D. Hayworth, on the other hand, was in an infomerical offering people free money! Also, I do not think Bevin will make it, because he asked the Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal for a bailout. Those kind of things hurt their conservative credentials.

Let's not forget that "family values Republicans" in SC voted for Newt Gingrich in a landslide.

[IceSpear]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

While they might seem close on paper, they really aren't. Mississippi voters are inelastic.

[IceSpear]

Republicans in Mississippi are far more inelastic than they are in either of those, regardless of the Presidential numbers.

In Congressional races, Mississippian Republicans have voted for good Democratic candidates over terrible Republican ones.  It is not out of the question that (after 6 more years of favorable demographic drift), one of those same 2 Democrats who already beat a terrible Republican candidate in an overwhelmingly white Republican district could beat another terrible Republican candidate in a statewide race, when the state as a whole is less Republican that MS-1.

That was before there was a black guy in the White House.

For "Black guy in White House effect", see Arkansas.