I'm not so convinced that she's not running that I didn't include her on the list. I'm just not convinced that she will run. There are a couple of reasons for this. First of all, everyone is talking about Hillary running except Hillary. There is very little reason to think that she will based on anything she herself has said or done. More importantly though, I don't know why she would. She's an exceptionally flawed candidate without all that great a record, numerous gaffes, and a ton of baggage. She's not going to get a free ride and just walk into the White House and she knows it. Why on earth would she give up what she's got now for a far from inevitable shot at the presidency?
I know, IceSpear, that you think it's dumb wishful thinking, but I assure you I've read all that you've read and considered all that you've considered and I would in fact welcome a Hillary candidacy. I've been saying for years that she's a paper tiger and that Gillibrand would be a much stronger candidate. Hillary very well may run. I am not omnipotent, but I am open minded enough to look at her potential candidacy objectively and see that she has more reasons to sit it out. However if she does run, she won't necessarily win. That's why she's not on my list of 5 most likely to win.
It's just a question of odds. If she runs, Gillibrand does not. So in order for Gillibrand to make the list but not Hillary, you'd have to consider her odds of running to be what? Like <10%?
As for what she's done to show she's running, she has certain individuals lined up for key positions on her campaign. That's further than nearly every other potential candidate on either side has gone. Her team is openly debating whether to launch the campaign in April or July. Why would they be debating such a thing if she hadn't already given them an indication she was going to run?
