Let's Play a Game: Tell me why you think Trump is favored in November WITHOUT using polls

[President Johnson]

Inb4 riverwalk says because the economy is getting worse.

[President Johnson]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

Not for 2023 and into 2024:

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/workers-paychecks-are-growing-more-quickly-than-prices/

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/06/chart-wage-growth-beating-inflation

Also economists mostly don't expect a recession for 2024. Just some are saying the risk isn't "off the table", which is barely a prediction.

https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-recession-forecasters-strength-ed49d9bfa9a26b6301065b990169d387

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/deutsche-bank-no-longer-expects-us-recession-2024-2024-02-06/

[President Johnson]

I am dissatisfied with the responses I've gotten so far. Too much of what you guys think people are feeling, and not enough hard facts and real-world indicators. "Joe Biden is old" is not a serious argument.

The economy getting worse is a serious argument. Real wages are down from when Biden took office, and it doesn't even factor in the increasing financing costs. Hiring rates have crashed to 2014 levels and are very close to entering Great Recession rates.

No serious person thinks the economy is getting worse. Stocks are at record-highs, unemployment is at record-lows and GDP is scorching. The US economy is one of the few major ones that have rebounded from the lows of the pandemic.

I can confirm the international part. Japan is in a recession that lost its status as third largest economy to Germany. And Germany itsself is stagnant or in a mild recession. Everyone wishes we had the same growth rates as the US has right now (or some of our Southern European friends).