Are black voters more friendly towards establishment candidates in Democratic primaries? (user search)
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  Are black voters more friendly towards establishment candidates in Democratic primaries? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Are black voters more friendly towards establishment candidates in Democratic primaries?  (Read 877 times)
President Johnson
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« on: February 17, 2024, 02:58:28 PM »

It certainly feels that way and not just with regard to Biden's primary campaign in 2020. Even in his gubernatorial primaries, a main source of Cuomo's strength were black voters. Do black voters indeed tend to predominantly support establishment candidates in primary elections? And if so, why is that the case? I could imagine its related to age, since the black primary electorate tends to be older. And African Americans over 40 tend to be more in strong support of the Democratic Party as whole.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,462
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2024, 02:45:16 PM »

This is generally the case, especially in presidential politics. However, the black vote in Democratic primaries is not as monolithic or ideologically fixed as often stereotyped. There is a recent trend of black insurgent candidates doing quite well in or getting their primary base of support from majority-black precincts in downballot races where their primary opposition is a white establishment candidate (Jamaal Bowman, Summer Lee, and Brandon Johnson are a few examples of this phenomenon).

Black voters almost support the black candidate over a white candidate, regardless of ideology. So they supported far-left Brandon Johnson over centrist Paul Vallas and former Republican Eric Adams over establishment progressive Kathryn Garcia.

Not sure this is always the case. Back in 2007 and into 2008, Obama was actually behind Clinton with the black vote and his team was even upset black voters didn't automatically back him. It wasn't until he win in predominantly whit Iowa that African American voters begun to shift as they were assured he could win a national election. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the Maryland senate primary this year.

And although it's just the local level, it's quite fascinating Mike Duggan has managed to easily win several mayoral elections in Detriot which is over 80% black.
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