🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[President Johnson]

More polling after the train disaster and the subsequent anti-government protests:

Interview poll:

33.7% ND (-2.9)
29.4% Syriza (+0.2)
10.8% PASOK (-0.2)
  6.6% KKE (+1.1)
  5.1% EL (+0.2)
  4.2% MeRA25 (+0.5)
  1.8% ED (nc)
  8.4% Others (+1.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 9 March 2023. Polled 1,305 voters.

GPO poll:

35.2% ND (-3.1)
30.6% Syriza (+0.7)
11.0% PASOK (-0.1)
  8.0% KKE (+0.8 )
  3.9% MeRA25 (+1.2)
  3.6% EL (+0.2)
  1.7% ED (+1.7)
  6.0% Others (-1.4)

Poll conducted between 6 and 8 March 2023. Polled 1,000 voters.

I guess that would win ND just a plurality of seats, despite getting an extra 50 for coming in first.

[President Johnson]

After following this a little closer over recent weeks and with my Dad still considering who to vote for (he currently stays in Greece in our summer domicile near Thessaloniki), I'd actually support for ND in this election. While Mitsotakis had some smaller issues, his administration still put Greece on a path to lasting economic growth, promoted innovation of new businesses and renewable energies and finally balanced the budget (there was even a surplus last year). Mitsotakis also pursued a strong pro-EU and pro-Western course, handled the Covid pandemic relatively well. I guess he's also culturally moderate enough for me. With the moderate left still not a major force, I think a return to Syriza with their reckless spending proposals and plans for nationalization would be toxic for the Greek economy and cause international turmoil.

Lots of challenges remain, but I believe Mitsotakis overall is better suited to tackle them than the alternative. While I doubt it will happen, a coalition of ND and the center-left parties "Movement for change" would also be far from the worst outcome.

[President Johnson]

Tsipras is so desperate and so shameless that he literally begged publicly the former Golden Dawn voters to vote SYRIZA this time because they are both anti-establishment parties.
Now tell me again that the horseshoe theory is wrong.

Who are you going to support/vote for? PASOK?

[President Johnson]

Well, it's at least kind of relieving to see polling is not only broken in the US. Polls not only underestimated ND support, it drastically overestimated SYRIZA. I never thought Tspiras would perform that poorly. At least PASOK is recovering from their dramatic losses following the financial crisis, albeit far away from pre-2010 strength.

It's unfortunate coalition governments are so unusual in Greece and there seems to be little desire for a ND-PASOK government with a solid majority. Mitsotakis is most likely winning a majority of his own in a July snap election and I'd be fine with that either.

I wonder whether his administration will stay in office until the snap election, or whether a technocrat cabinet will take over in the meantime? In 2012 and 2015, there were technocrat governments appointed in the meantime.

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether his administration will stay in office until the snap election, or whether a technocrat cabinet will take over in the meantime? In 2012 and 2015, there were technocrat governments appointed in the meantime.

There will be a caretaker government whose sole responsibility will be to conduct the new election.

This is really kind of weird. In Germany (and I guess most other European countries), the previous government just stays on as a caretaker. Technically there's not even a deadline for formation of a new government. After the failed Jamaica talks in 2017 and later formation of another grand coalition, Merkel and her third cabinet continued on an acting capacity from October 2017 to March 2018 before the Bundestag reelected her.

[President Johnson]

I read it in the Greek Elects twitter page. Why were pollsters afraid of being bullied by Syriza if they showed the real voting intentions rather than the ones they presented that overestimated the party?

Because that's how SYRIZA and its army of online trolls operate. They harass and bully anyone (journalists, pollsters, academics, political rivals, etc.) who says anything they dislike. It's no wonder why they still feel such affinity for right-wing parties, even Golden Dawn.

SYRIZA also governed in a coalition with the right-wing populist ANEL Party. Twice, after both elections in 2015.

[President Johnson]

A map of the results by municipal unit:


The key:

#Kyriakoslide

[President Johnson]

Latest poll by GPO:

44.5% ND (+0.6)
18.9% Syriza (-2.0)
12.4% PASOK (+0.2)
  6.9% KKE (nc)
  3.7% EL (+0.5)
  3.7% PE (-1.0)
  3.1% NIKI (-0.5)
  2.7% MeRA25 (+0.5)
  2.2% Spartans (new)
  1.9% Others (-0.5)

Poll conducted between 12 and 14 June 2023.

I guess ND would easily get over 160 seats in this scenario. #Kyriakoslide

[President Johnson]

Congrats to Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has been a pretty good prime minister after all, especially for a center-right one.

Tspiras has become a total joke at this point, especially for apparently not resigning after getting blown out a third time.

[President Johnson]

Is the good right wing performance because many view Mitsotakis and ND going too far to the center?

Kind of. ND though is more of a "liberal-conservative" party or center-right, not right-wing. Mitsotakis is currently the only center-right leader I'd actually vote for.

[President Johnson]

#Kyriakoslide



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:June_2023_Greek_legislative_election_-_Municipal_Units_Results.png

[President Johnson]

Now with Tsipras out of the picture, what could be the future of Syriza? Could the possible contenders for the leadership "revive" the party or is this the "end" for the party's aspirations as the main alternative to ND?

I can't see any of the hopefuls reversing SYRIZA's return to 3% and protest party status. For all his faults the guy was a master manipulator and tactician, not unlike Trump, and had successfully stifled any dissent.

 

I hope you're right and PASOK gains back the status of the major center-left force in Greece. At least they wouldn't govern with a party like ANEL.

[President Johnson]

First poll in 11 years in which PASOK is the second biggest party:

Opinion Poll for Action24:

38.5% ND (-0.6)
16.0% PASOK (+3.7)
14.7% Syriza (-2.6)
10.6% KKE (+1.1)
  5.9% EL (nc)
  3.9% NIKI (-0.7)
  3.0% Spartans (-0.6)
  2.5% PE (-0.9)
  2.4% MeRA25
  2.5% Other parties (-1.8 )

Poll conducted between 13 and 15 November 2023. Polled 1,011 voters.

Finally, we are returning to normality. I hope that by next summer SYRIZA is reduced to single digits.

Agreed, though it's still a long way for PASOK to be competitive with ND I guess. Fortunately latter hasn't turned to the right like others in Europe (like Les Republicains or Tories) have.