Q is questionable, and I'm not only saying this when they come with a hilariously Republican friendly poll or Biden at 33% approval rating. Warnock may very well win, but it won't be by ten. Not even by five in a year like this. Tossup until proven otherwise.
Yes, I’m not sure how they do it, but Quinnipiac always manages to inflate the lead of a certain candidate/party in these "shock polls."
If Warnock holds on in GA, I'd think Dems would be favored to hold the Senate. If Warnock wins by this margin (unlikely), I'd call it a certainty.
I disagree with this — I think Democrats are more likely to lose AZ/NV/PA (and obviously WI) than GA in the Senate. Agree on the second point, though.
However, Republicans apparently nominated a weak candidate in Pennsylvania with equally poor favorables and isn't their frontrunner in Arizona some guy who wants to privatize Social Security? Kelly and Fetterman are strong candidates, though they can still lose easily in a political climate not favorable.
