Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Johnson]

Hardly a surprise, the talks produced no breakthrough.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1500917327742836744

[President Johnson]

Finally a true freedom trucker!

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1500838594671529993

I actually don't think this is a legitimate form of protest in Western countries.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1500751560166588416

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1501220756361035778?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

Let's hope this at least accelerates the end of Putin, as he has no viable exit path. He will have ruined Russia's economy for years and sacrificed thousands of Russian soldiers for practically nothing. Anyone in Russia with at least a little sense for reality must conclude that there's just no path forward with this guy.

[President Johnson]

IAEA has some concerns over Chernobyl.

https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1501273358599479299

[President Johnson]

oh ffs

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1501292668013404163

Guess who they borrowed that line from, that's right, the Americans! Where did those Iraqi WMD's end up anyway? Those trailers from those grainy satellite photos that were supposed to be bioweapons labs? The supposed Saddam deal to buy uranium from Africa that turned out to be a fabrication?

Without intention to downplay or whitewash Iraq, Putin's war is morally much more bankrupt than Iraq was.

[President Johnson]

The next one:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501299309907611653

[President Johnson]

Chernobyl is cut off electricity and the emergency power system, run by diesel generators, only lasts for about two days. Ukraine is calling for a cease fire in the region to repair the damaged power grid. At least reason to concern, although the IAEA says there's no immediate danger because the water tanks are enough for a cooling effect. I hope the Russians aren't that dumb, as they put themselves at risk here, too.

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1501531432031858690

https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1501545852715905029

[President Johnson]

German news sources already report that a member of Lavrov's delegation said there would be "no concessions at all." Probably this meeting is just a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501654121908211715

[President Johnson]

The US appears to give up on negotiating for the transfer of any Soviet jets and further argues that they wouldn’t be particularly useful: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60657155

It would have been much better if the various branches of the US government had communicated with each other before making overtures to Poland that they would consider too dangerous for their own country. If there was any chance of Poland making the transfer without US support, it is likely a lot smaller now that they know the US wouldn’t do it and would possibly abandon Poland in any conflict started over it.

John Kirby also claims the US is open to working with other allies to boost Ukraine’s air defences in other ways. Hopefully, this means medium-to-long range Soviet/Russian SAMs - but signs of this are scant. The $13.6 billion budget should cover back-fills for the countries that would be giving theirs up.

Meh, Putin will most likely see this as a sign of weakness. Exactly what should be a avoided. He's a thug and bully and only understands strength and determination.

[President Johnson]

Scholz and Macron continue to pressure Putin. Furthermore, it seems that former German chancellor and Putin buddy Gerhard Schröder is traveling to Moscow for talks. German government was not informed about this. In recent weeks, pressure on Schröder mounted to quit his jobs on the board of Rosneft and Gazprom.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1501973662253170689

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1501973968877723652

[President Johnson]

Good for Poland. (reply intentionally included)

https://twitter.com/SandersVoter/status/1501931057544839168

Lmao, they didn't rename the German translation below.

[President Johnson]

It's also being reported that Russia allowed to repair the electric grid so that Chernobyl can return to regular order.

https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1502023331125637129

[President Johnson]

That was long overdue:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1502351269868060673

[President Johnson]

Still a big if, but I wonder whether Ukrainian forces would try to reclaim Crimea in case they're successful in pushing the Russians out of the mainland with increased help from the West? If I were Ukraine, I'd seriously consider to do so.

[President Johnson]

Putin is screwed no matter what happens, and it seems his alliance with China is not going to pay the dividends he thought it would:

China Has Tools to Help Russia’s Economy. None Are Big Enough to Save It.
Any financial lifeline that Beijing can offer Moscow involves taking on risk and won’t have the power to reverse the damage of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies.

To help Russia evade sanctions, China would have to offer a viable substitute to the American dollar. But Chinese money — the renminbi — is barely used outside of China. Only 3 percent of the world’s business is done using the redback. Even Russia and China conduct their trade mostly in U.S. dollars and euros.

What’s more, the risks of helping Russia avoid economic ruin may be greater for China than any possible reward. Much of China’s own economy depends on the U.S. dollar and the financial edifice that underpins it. Chinese companies are active around the globe, using the American financial system to pay employees, buy materials and make investments. China is the world’s largest exporter, and is paid for its goods mainly in dollars.

Should Beijing run afoul of the sanctions against Russia, China’s own financial stability would be put at risk at a time when its leaders have emphasized caution. And besides, the few lifelines that Chinese leaders could feasibly offer Russia would not be strong enough to help the country survive a financial blackout from the United States and its allies.

(...) criticizing sanctions is one thing. Choosing to go against the global financial order and risk inviting sanctions at home is another. Beijing has already given some indication that it isn’t willing to do the latter. The Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — an investment bank that Washington sees as a World Bank rival — last week said it would put its lending to Russia and Belarus on hold over the war in Ukraine. Some Chinese banks have cut back on the financing of Russian commodities.

“Chinese banks are trying to cut their exposure to Russia,” said Raymond Yeung of ANZ Bank. “You can tell that the theory of China offering a financial alternative to Russia remains questionable.”

I know Putin made clear that he wanted to conquer all of Ukraine, and install a puppet in Kiev, but China may well force him to accept an East/West division of Ukraine (and Kiev) along the Dneiper.  And that, from the Russian perspective, is being optimistic, assuming they can even control eastern Ukraine. The Chinese are getting more and more discomfited the longer this war goes on.

And we (NATO and the United States) on our part can make the legitimate Ukrainian government accept this division despite their insistence they want their whole country back including Crimea.  

Vladimir Putin is an ex-KGB agent, not an economist.

He has pretty much stopped bothering about the Russian economy for years. At this point, he doesn't even have much of a domestic policy other than mass-surveillance and repression to keep his war machine going.

[President Johnson]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

Big if true. That would tell you things are going very poorly for Putin.

I seriously doubt China has any desire to get involved militarily in any shape or form. While they don't want to stab Moscow in the back, Xi has little interest in this war prolonging. Alone for China's economic investments in Ukraine and Western sanctions hurting the global economy, to which the Chinese are extensively connected.

[President Johnson]

German ministry of defense has made its first decision on how to use its new 100 billion Euro budget.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/1503299897868664833

This a very good decision. Our military equipment and jets have been quite pathetic for a long time and utterly unworthy of the fourth largest economy in the world and the most powerful country in Europe.

Anyway, Lockheed Martin can actually send a Thank You card to the Kremlin for this.

[President Johnson]

Clearly an American spy or Russian 5th columnist

Moscow Man

Not to be confused with Moscow Mitch.

[President Johnson]

Prime Ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slowenia arrived in Kyiv by train for talks.

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1503782996444340224

[President Johnson]

Just another "military target":

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1504141027879313412

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504170882985607174

[President Johnson]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

No NATO wouldn't mean no EU, though? Remember that this is was initially sparked the entire crisis in 2013/14. It was about an association agreement the European Union, not NATO. That's also why Putin's NATO argument was always a bunch of BS, he's not afraid of NATO, he's afraid of democracy. And strong democratic norms are a key precondition for joining EU.

[President Johnson]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

If this deal happens, hypothetically, do the sanctions end?

I don't think so and certainly hope not. The Russians have committed numerous war crimes and Putin is responsible for thousands of deaths. Just because he stops the killing after having failed to win the war, we can't just return to business as usual and pretend all of that never happened.

[President Johnson]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

Lmao, they lost more troops in Ukraine in a matter of two weeks than the US did in 18 years of Iraq. Nice try, Medvdev. If they didn't have nukes and the US Military got involved with drone strikes and a bunch of Special Forces supporting Ukrainian units, Russia would be thrown out of the country in a few short weeks, if not within days. He'd be the one put in his place.

I always found it hilarious how Russian leadership wants to be treated as an equal to the US and think the EU is a papertiger not even worth talking to, when it turns out their lousy economy is not even the size of Texas or Italy, let alone peanuts compared to the US or EU as a whole.