Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/pragatipal6/status/1498168588858920960?s=21

This would definitely cross the reddest of red lines. The question is what could be done without start WWIII? My first thought was Biden sending the CIA to "take care" in Moscow, though that would definitely have severe consequences.

Definitely shows how rotten to the core Putin is. I hope this war ends his reign very soon because Russian elites have enough of his delusion and madness.

[President Johnson]

I think the decisive factor in this war is going to be - can Russia gain enough ground control in Ukraine, quickly enough, to outrun sanctions and gain an upper hand, vis a vis what they would gain in a settlement right now? Do they think they can? If they don't think they can, they settle for sure. If they aren't sure, it depends. If they do think they can, they are unlikely, perhaps very unlikely, to settle.

Not sure, Putin seems determined that his demands are met and Ukraine can never agree to these terms. Even if the Ukrainian military is defeated, underground resistance in asymmetric warfare will continue. I think this conflict won't be over until Putin is done, ergo removed from power. In one way or another.

[President Johnson]

So Putin apparently insists on his maximal demands? I really don't see a solution as long as this guy is in power.

[President Johnson]

Nord Stream is deader than disco.


https://mobile.twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1498673016552796166


Incredible how much money was shoveled into that financial grave.

It's beyond embarrassing how Schröder is conducting himself here. An embarrassment for Germany and for the Social Democratic Party. And I'm saying this as someone who always approved his chancellorship.

[President Johnson]

It's beyond embarrassing how Schröder is conducting himself here. An embarrassment for Germany and for the Social Democratic Party. And I'm saying this as someone who always approved his chancellorship.

Is there any discussion, in Germany of course, regarding Merkel's legacy on Nord Stream 2?

Not really about Merkel herself, but more generally the approach towards Russia. Merkel recently came out with a strong statement condemning the war and backing the Scholz government, which is largely supported by the CDU/CSU opposition as well.

However, Merkel is not remotely comparable to Schröder, as she isn't on Putin's payroll. Merkel always seemed uninterested in any such business activities or enrichment in general. There are reasons to criticize her tenure, but her personal integrity was never in question. Certainly something I credit her for.

[President Johnson]

Apple to suspend product sales in Russia. Furthermore, RT and Sputnik are banned from Apple app shop.

https://twitter.com/markuspreiss/status/1498771139325313029

[President Johnson]

So, what do people think might be the endgame here? Ultimately it feels like, if the combatants remain only Russia (plus Belarus) and Ukraine, Russia is likely to win the conventional war eventually, even if it takes them months to occupy the whole country. On the other hand, in the last few days, the European powers (and the US, operating behind the scenes) seem to have committed themselves quite far towards a position where Russia cannot be allowed to win the conventional war. Right now, that doesn't mean direct intervention because the Russians aren't about to win, and clearly there are high hopes on the European side that the Ukrainians can ultimately repel the Russian forces without direct military intervention by the rest of Europe. But what happens if, as is more likely, the Ukrainians eventually start to crumble under the pressure? Given the implicit commitments by the UK, France, etc. to preventing Russia from winning, not to mention the strong pressure from Poland, Romania, the Baltics, etc. and popular sentiment in all of the above countries, it feels like a European intervention would have to happen at some point. I think we all hope it doesn't come to that, but isn't that starting to feel inevitable? Not now, and maybe not until May or so, but at some point?

No. Everybody who sits in the government of a NATO or EU country knows perfectly well what a direct NATO-Russia military confrontation would mean and could result in. Western sanctions are also not designed to necessarily prevent a Russian win in Ukraine, since everybody in these governments already assumes that a Russian victory will sooner or later be likely. The purpose of the sanctions is punishment as well as deterrence against future Russian trangressions against other European countries, maybe coupled with the hope that the sanctions might create enough pressure in and on Russia to make them withdraw from Ukraine. But everybody knows that that last part is a gamble that could go either way.

Or simply that the power elites and oligarchs, whose assets tank badly, at some point make an attempt to remove Putin from his throne. I think a lasting solution to this conflict can only happen without Putin. There won't be any kind of normalized relations with the West either as long as he's in the Kremlin. He basically burned down all bridges and lost all remaining credibility.

[President Johnson]

So, what do people think might be the endgame here? Ultimately it feels like, if the combatants remain only Russia (plus Belarus) and Ukraine, Russia is likely to win the conventional war eventually, even if it takes them months to occupy the whole country. On the other hand, in the last few days, the European powers (and the US, operating behind the scenes) seem to have committed themselves quite far towards a position where Russia cannot be allowed to win the conventional war. Right now, that doesn't mean direct intervention because the Russians aren't about to win, and clearly there are high hopes on the European side that the Ukrainians can ultimately repel the Russian forces without direct military intervention by the rest of Europe. But what happens if, as is more likely, the Ukrainians eventually start to crumble under the pressure? Given the implicit commitments by the UK, France, etc. to preventing Russia from winning, not to mention the strong pressure from Poland, Romania, the Baltics, etc. and popular sentiment in all of the above countries, it feels like a European intervention would have to happen at some point. I think we all hope it doesn't come to that, but isn't that starting to feel inevitable? Not now, and maybe not until May or so, but at some point?

No. Everybody who sits in the government of a NATO or EU country knows perfectly well what a direct NATO-Russia military confrontation would mean and could result in. Western sanctions are also not designed to necessarily prevent a Russian win in Ukraine, since everybody in these governments already assumes that a Russian victory will sooner or later be likely. The purpose of the sanctions is punishment as well as deterrence against future Russian trangressions against other European countries, maybe coupled with the hope that the sanctions might create enough pressure in and on Russia to make them withdraw from Ukraine. But everybody knows that that last part is a gamble that could go either way.

Or simply that the power elites and oligarchs, whose assets tank badly, at some point make an attempt to remove Putin from his throne. I think a lasting solution to this conflict can only happen without Putin. There won't be any kind of normalized relations with the West either as long as he's in the Kremlin. He basically burned down all bridges and lost all remaining credibility.

Even if the oligarchs did overthrow Putin, there is no guarantee that whoever replaced him won't be far worse, so I'm not really sure that's what we should be hoping for. When strongman dictators are removed from power there is always going to be a power vacuum to replace them, and situations like that can lead to some pretty unsavory people taking advantage of that vacuum.

Any successor would most likely operate from a much weaker position though. Russia's economy will be in shambles and they need at least some goodwill from Western countries and from China to rebuild it, and neither will be "for free". So there wouldn't be much room for any adventures in Ukraine and elsewhere and a new Russian government would have to focus on making sure their own economy is at least stabilized to a certain degree.

[President Johnson]

Russian Ministry of Defense claims 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers killed, 498 Russians.

https://twitter.com/DrAlakbarov/status/1499073100067000320

In the first 10 days of the invasion of Iraq the US had 65 deaths. Even if you were to believe the Russian numbers, which I don't, they've had a much worse time of it than the US did in 2003.

The US was able to pull of the entire invasion with less than 200 fatalities

Yeah, and if you take the US occupation of Iraq as a comparison and put this in perspective, you would expect even greater losses during a Russian occupation given how incompetent they have handled this. Furthermore, there was at least a decent number of Iraqis celebrating Saddam's end. Zelenskyy has like >90% behind him now, even in Eastern Ukraine which was more pro-Russia so far.

[President Johnson]

Russia is basically doing a pariah state speed run at this point.

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1499102820011843587

Putin is making Russia great again.

[President Johnson]

Zelenskyy owns Putin big time:

https://twitter.com/LBCNews/status/1499454221523030017

[President Johnson]

I like this message from Blinken.

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1499465379936186373

[President Johnson]

I think he stops at Ukraine, but I'd be very doubtful he tries for a NATO state.

Not sure, history has shown that appeasement never worked. The West should have been more forceful in 2014 already, and Putin way too long got away with cyber war, election interference and ordered killings in European cities. The lackluster responses to all these violation and the pathetic attempts by some German politicians - including from my own party - to get Norstream 2 done at all cost just emboldened him. He needs a clear stop sign now, and if he doesn't back down, needs to learn it the hard way. He has already ruined the Russian economy for years.

[President Johnson]

A no-fly zone over Ukraine almost guarantees escalation to at least a general European war if not a world war. I get that because of the way international diplomacy works we had to at least look like we were considering it to humor Zelenskyy, but there were a lot of people not involved in that process who've been stridently advocating for it even though they should really know better. Looking at you, natsec ghouls.

I'm extremely conflicted on the issue. It's definitely the right thing to do morally, and I would love to see Russians getting kicked out of Ukraine as long as they keep assaulting a peaceful neighbor country. The potential for an escalation would certainly be there, though backing down means that nuclear powers can pretty much do whatever they want, no matter how abhorrent it might be. It's anyone's guess how Putin would react to NATO countries enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Would he attack a NATO country? That would actually be suicidal.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1499827642522083332

"Elections"

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1499816840205602816

It seems that Putin also believes in "alternative facts"...

He's outright lying, as he lied to Scholz and Macron when they sat at the famous white table. They're also blatantly lying about the nuclear power plant incident, accusing Ukrainians of sabotage.

[President Johnson]

This is so weird... At 0:17, you can see Putin's hand just going through the microphone. He's not in the room with those people:

https://twitter.com/danbarker/status/1500125004062679041

Putin is so magic, he can touch and walk through things others can't!

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether, once this is said and done, Russia will be forced to pay reparations or whether there will be a dispute over the question of lifting sanctions, possibly beyond Putin's reign. Since this is an unprovoked attack on a sovereign country, Russia definitely must pay reparations to the government and the people of Ukraine for everything they have done.

[President Johnson]

Israeli Prime Minister Bennet on diplomatic mission: He met Putin earlier today and will later be hosted by Olaf Scholz. This comes just days after Scholz was in Israel for talks.

https://twitter.com/MKuefner/status/1500189614023319552

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether, once this is said and done, Russia will be forced to pay reparations or whether there will be a dispute over the question of lifting sanctions, possibly beyond Putin's reign. Since this is an unprovoked attack on a sovereign country, Russia definitely must pay reparations to the government and the people of Ukraine for everything they have done.

Sure, if the West wants to follow emotions instead of logic and reason, it should impose reparations.

Remember who was forced to pay reparations after WW1, and what that lead to?

There is a reason America didnt suck Germany/Japan/the Axis dry after WW2. They realized that it does not work, breeds resentment & instability, and ultimately leads back to square 1.

If Russia does manage to turn itself into a functional (somewhat liberal) democracy, the only sane thing to do is Marshall Plan 2.0.

One doesn't rule out the other. Russia is still rich of natural ressources and giving at least something to Ukrainians for the immense suffering inflicted on them. I'm not talking about punishing the regular Russian just trying to feed his family.

If the current regime and their elites were gone (big if), I guess that would benefit a lot of common people in Russia. Let's not forget many of them live in poverty while oligarchs enrich themselves from the ressources.

[President Johnson]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

Russia is failing miserably at meeting the benchmarks they themselves set. Even if they are ultimately successful, this has still been a huge disaster for them.

In the long run, absolutely. Even if Ukraine falls, occupation is a much harder business as has already been stated. It's almost impossible when >98% of the population is against you. In a country as large as Ukraine, they would have committ at least half a million troops.

Putin totally underestimated this, and since he's only surrounded by Yes-men, nobody told him the truth. I'm still surprised he didn't even take a lesson from history, as examples in Afghanistan for both the USSR and US have shown, or even Vietnam. Kinda reminds me of a scene in the movie Path to War, when presidential adviser (and later Defense Secretary) Clark Clifford, an early skeptic of the Vietnam War, said at a cabinet meeting around 1965 that about one million men would be needed in Vietnam, which left everyone else in the room speechless. He was proven right in the end, and Lyndon unfortunately didn't listen to him.

[President Johnson]

TikTok also pulling out of Russia:

https://twitter.com/TikTokComms/status/1500535437861048320

[President Johnson]

snip
All war crimes great and small,
Good people condemn them all.

“Both sides” assholes can f*** off and die.

There must be a special place in hell for Putin.

[President Johnson]

Russia could be just preparing for a big offensive, that’s probably why the frontlines have been stalled. A swift fall of several Ukrainian cities and much of Eastern Ukraine is conceivable very soon if this offensive begins.

Some observers in Germany suggested this as well, though I'm not sure how many actual soldiers and equipment the Russians have left to get in at this moment. My guess is just that they will increase horrific air bombing campaigns as happened in Syria since 2015.

[President Johnson]

Macron again phoned with Putin today, with the latter not backing down, according French sources. Israel's Bennett and Erdogan also spoke with Putin, with Erdogan demanding a cease fire.

https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1500525308985974787