OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[President Johnson]

That's surprising. Given the fact the races is likely/safe Republican, this isn't necessarily good news since Portman is one of the more sane senate Republicans.

[President Johnson]

What a coward.

[President Johnson]

Ryan could win, but it will be very close

I'm not sure. That might be the case in a Democratic wave year or even a neutral one, it just doesn't look like 2022 will be such.

[President Johnson]

Fivethirtyeight has an interesting article about this race today.

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1560628723891818496

Ohio is the type of Senate race that Democrats shouldn’t have much business competing in. The state is increasingly red, having voted for former President Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in 2020. True, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown was reelected in Ohio in 2018 — but that was in a strongly Democratic environment that is unlikely to be replicated this November, in what’s expected to be a Republican-leaning year.

[...]

Our election forecast is … confused. The Lite version of our forecast, which just uses the polls, sticks to our polling average and has Ryan as a slight 56 percent favorite.1 The Classic version, which incorporates “fundamentals” such as Ohio’s Republican lean and Ryan’s fundraising advantage so far, puts Ryan’s chances at 39 percent and Vance as a slight favorite. And the Deluxe forecast, which also accounts for expert race ratings — in essence, the conventional wisdom that the race is an uphill climb for Democrats — has Ryan’s chances at 21 percent, making Vance a clear favorite.

[...]

This relatively narrow polling advantage for Ryan is also coming at a time when Ryan is using his fundraising advantage to dominate the airwaves. Reinforcements are coming for Vance, though, so Ryan might lose that advantage by November.

So does Ryan have a chance? Yes, absolutely. But I think the Deluxe version of the forecast probably does a pretty good job of pegging Ryan’s chances to roughly 1 in 5.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1562864169858134017

Jesus Christ. They're using the same vocabulary as Putin in Ukraine? They don't even try to hide anymore, aren't they? And did he actually call for rape? The party of "law and order" and "family values" strikes again.

It's just too unfortunate it won't change much, remains a Likely Republican race.

[President Johnson]

I really have Indiana 2012 vibes. An above average democrat candidate who decided to run because they destroyed his district with a ing bad republican candidate.

I don't think that should be enough but After all Donnelly overperformed Obama by 15 points sooooo

You could be onto something, though things have changed from a decade ago. In terms of polarization, it has gotten worse and states more partisan. Let's be honest, Akin in Missouri and Murdock in Indiana would win this year, or would have won in 2020.