🇩🇪 Germany: ⬛️ CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for 2021

[President Johnson]

I'm split 50/50 between predicting Laschet or Söder. If Söder, I'm pretty sure Laschet will become a federal minister and leave Düsseldorf.

That being said, I hope Laschet will be the candidate, because he's preferrable in any way possible. Obviously Olaf Scholz is my preferred chancellor, but I have lost faith in the SPD's ability to win. It's actually kinda sad that the federal election won't be a contest for the chancellorship since it's plain obvious neither the SPD or Greens have a chance of taking the chancellorship. The Union has a lock on winning the most seats by far. Next government will be Union and Greens, like in Austria.

[President Johnson]

I'm split 50/50 in predicting Laschet or Söder. If Söder, I'm pretty sure Laschet will become a federal minister and leave Düsseldorf.

That being said, I hope Laschet will be the candidate, because he's preferrable in any way possible. Obviously Olaf Scholz is my preferred chancellor, but I have lost faith in the SPD's ability to win. It's actually kinda sad that the federal election won't be a contest for the chancellorship since it's plain obvious neither the SPD or Greens have a chance of taking the chancellorship. The Union has a lock on winning the most seats by far. Next government will be Union and Greens, like in Austria.

Given how CDU-SPD still adds up to a majority, never underestimate the masochism of the SPD. Maybe they think 15% is still too much and won't stop grand coalitioning until the fall below the threshold

Barring that yeah I guess it is a near certainty that CDU-Greens (or CDU-SPD if the SPD is masochistic enough) will be Germany's next government.

CDU-FDP doesn't seem to be high enough for a majority, any deals with AfD are not happening, red-red-green doesn't add up to a majority.

The SPD is 100% done with the "grand" coalition. It won't happen again, especially now that Greens are strong enough for a two party coalition with the Union. It would have worked in 2017 already, if the FDP didn't back off. The party has moved to the center and Armin Laschet is much easier for them than the conservative Merz. Even Söder has lately shifted towards more environmentalist policies in Bavaria.

[President Johnson]

Hopefully Merkel again

No, she is 100 % retiring. She didn't file a candidacy in her own district.

Probably a stupid question but just in general, does the Chancellor have to be a member of the Bundestag (like in Britain, where ministers have to be MPs or Lords), or is that just a constitutional convention?

They don't have to be (in some states such as NRW that's the case. Ironically in 2017 Laschet almost failed to win his district - That could've prevented him from becoming Governor in theory, but I guess another Landtag Member would've just resigned so he could assume the office...).

Still, as far as I know, every single Chancellor has also been a Bundestag member. The fact that she doesn't run for reelection in her district just underlines that she is serious with retiring this year.

Ministers don't have to be Members of Bundestag either, and it happens relatively frequently that non-members of Bundestag get appointed to the Cabinet. In Merkel's 3rd Cabinet, Johanna Wanka (Education) and Heiko Maas (Justice) were such cases, in the current Cabinet Horst Seehofer (Interior), Olaf Scholz (Finances) and AKK (Defence).

Not exactly correct, Kurt Georg Kiesinger indeed was not a member of the Bundestag during his chancellorship (1966-1969). However, he was a member before (1949-1958) and after (1969-1980).

[President Johnson]

Looks like Laschet is getting less popular since he was elected. Is that because of something pandemic related or just people getting to know him and not liking what they see? Could it give Spahn a chance as the "Stop Söder" candidate?

Has Söder said publicly he wants to become Chancellor, or is there still a chance he prefers to stay in Munich?

Söder also lost support in recent weeks, especially from within his own party. Several county officials and major city mayors are unhappy with his strict handling of the pandemic and demand an opening strategy for businesses.

I think Spahn has no chance, given how medicore he has handled the pandemic now. It's no just the vaccination mess, Merkel also intervened on his testing strategy (something that, according to observers, would lead to a minister's resignation in normal times). He's currently also under fire for hosting a dinner with business leaders a few months ago, just before he himself was tested positive for the virus. He definitely wants the top-job, but I think he's not up to it.

[President Johnson]

RIP Armin. He's not getting it with these terrible numbers.

[President Johnson]

Laschet is a nice guy, but politically, he just doesn't have it. He got lucky in 2017 by winning a state election against a tired Hannelore Kraft. If he somehow becomes chancellor by vetoing Söder's candidacy and edging out SPD and Greens for a black-green coalition, I predict that his chancellorship won't last for a full term. Probably the shortest tenure in the federal republic since 1949.

[President Johnson]

The statement from today that both would be "available" is kinda ridiculous. They're pretty bad in messaging at this point.

Originally a joke by the Heute-show, I actually think the Union would be best off with nominating Parliamentary Leader Ralph Brinkhaus. He seems more competent than Söder and Laschet and his even not hesitated to criticize the government for Covid management. He also ousted his predecessor Volker Kauder few years ago against Merkel's explicit will.

[President Johnson]

I think the odds are now favoring Laschet not just because the CDU is the larger party, but because the CDU can't stab their newly elected leader in the back by bypassing him in favor of the wannabe Bavarian king. This would immediately damage Laschet's standing as party leader. Also, what's he supposed to do then? Just stay in Düsseldorf while Söder sits in the chancellery? Become a federal minister? That doesn't work. At the same time, many CSU politicians at the local level want Söder to stay in Munich. Yes, there are the polls, but polls are polls. And I could easily see the Union rebound once the vaccination campaign goes full steam in the coming months.

Here's what I would do in Söder's position and what I think is not that unlikely: Decline the candidacy and let Laschet run. He still has a good chance to win the election. Subsequently, Söder could sabotage Laschet from Munich with political maneuvers, mockery through the media or outlandish political proposals. There's a long history of feuds between the CDU and CSU leaders, especially Kohl vs. Strauß and Seehofer vs. Merkel. However, Kohl and Merkel were skillful tacticians and I'm not sure Laschet is capable of the same (although I like the guy personally, unlike Söder who's kinda arrogant). Söder could actively work behind the scenes to bring Laschet's chancellorship down in the middle of his term and force him to quit. Consequently, Söder himself could say "I told you so" and assemble wide support to replace Laschet as chancellor.

[President Johnson]

Also, Söder's numbers are inflated by the perception of being a "dedicated fighter against corona" by proposing "hard measures" all the time and then using every loophole possible while the actual management by the Bavarian state government is quite meh.

Agree, actually NRW isn't doing any worse just by looking at hard numbers and objective facts. Söder is just better in pretending to be the master pandemic manager.

[President Johnson]

Wait, is there a chance that CDU/CSU actually loses? I don't keep up with German politics as much as I should, it Merkel no longer popular? I know she's retiring, but I have a hard time believing that the SPD can pull out a win here.

Not the SPD, but the Greens will win if the CDU/CSU nominates Laschet.

SPD is just 3.5% short of the Greens in the most recent poll. I don't give up hope for Chancellor Scholz, the most qualified candidate in race. However, I expect there to be Union-Green coalition under Chancellor Laschet.

[President Johnson]

Example: If CDU/CSU decides that Söder is the Spitzenkandidat. The election takes place on September. After that, CDU/CSU+Grünen+SPD decide to build a coalition and elect Laschet to be the Kanzler. Is this legal?

Yes, it regularly happens in the Federal State of Bremen, that the Spitzenkandidat of the winning party (= SPD) won't become the Senate President (= "Governor") of Bremen.

The SPD also wasn't the strongest party in the elections of 1969, 1976 and 1980, and Brandt and Schmidt became chancellor with support of the FDP.

In 2011, CDU got 39% in BaWü and still went into opposition because Greens (24%) and SPD (23%) formed a coalition. All that matters is a coalition with a functioning majority.

[President Johnson]

Yesterday, the CDU/CSU Bundestag group - basically - endorsed Söder at a (regular) closed-door meeting in the Reichstag with him and Laschet as "special guests", both of whom delivered a speech in front of the parliamentarians, after which more contributions were made in favor of the Bavarian Governor.

Not that surprising, given the Union's main intention has always been to stay in power at any cost. And some of their members look at the polls and make the simply calculation that just a few points less could cost them their seat. However, I think they're making the mistake to assume the political climate today will be the same in September. If things go somewhat right, the pandemic will be under control and the main challenge no longer immediate measures to stop the spread of Covid, but how to build a post-pandemic economy, pay back the debt and fix the structural problems the pandemic has painfully revealed. Not saying this is automatically bad for Söder though.

One way or the other, I still fail to see how the CDU could not insist on Laschet. Not supporting him for chancellor would immediately damage his standing as newly elected leader. Otherwise, they're going the SPD path with a new leader each one or two years.

[President Johnson]

Reiner Haseloff, CDU Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt, today says the decision for a chancellor candidate should be based on polls, de facto giving an endorsement for Söder. So far the highest ranking CDU politician to do so.

It's noteworthy that he's from an Eastern state, in which many CDU politicians and observers think Söder would fare better than Laschet, who's much closer to Merkel's political style and her positions. Haseloff is up for reelection in June and his CDU-SPD-Greens coaltion is just holding a bare majority.

[President Johnson]

There were talks over night today, with still no decision being made. According to news sources, Laschet insisted on his candidacy since the CDU is the larger party and their leadership backs him. However, Söder is citing polling numbers. I think he wants a vote in the parliamentary faction similar to 1980, which he might actually win.

The biggest error the parties made, and especially Laschet, is not determining how a decision should be made. Through party leadership, within Bundestag members, a member referendum (which is now too late). Söder kinda played Laschet with these stunts now, which proves my point that Laschet has weak political instincts (and I actually like him as a person). Even if he becomes chancellor, I expect Söder to "sabotage" him one way or the other from Munich so that he has to quit somewhere in the middle of the term. Then Söder has an "I told you so" moment and sort of emerges as the Union's "savior".

[President Johnson]

Still no decision, but Söder has arrived in Berlin for a conversation with Laschet in person. Meanwhile, the JU (Youth Wing of CDU/CSU) has endorsed Söder.

[President Johnson]

Still no decision, but Söder has arrived in Berlin for a conversation with Laschet in person. Meanwhile, the JU (Youth Wing of CDU/CSU) has endorsed Söder.

Also, the Lower-Saxon CDU has endorsed Söder; at a quickly convened video conference of all county chairs and all members of the state executive committee, ca. 70% of the conventioneers backed Söder - as against state chair Bernd Althusmann, who endorsed Söder in his capacity as a member of the federal executive board.

Meanwhile, the CDA, the economically liberal employees' wing of the CDU/CSU, has endorsed Laschet. The speaker of those "lunch pail" Christian Democrats is Karl-Josef Laumann, who "happens" to be the Social Affairs Minister within Laschet's cabinet.

Yeah, it feels like there has been major shift towards Söder in the last 24-48 hours. Or at least his backers are coming out of the woods now.

[President Johnson]

So there is no decision expected today either. After a three hiour long conversation last night, both sides did not come to an agreement. Seems like Söder wants a vote in the parliamentary group, which would favor him.

Edit: Söder will give a press conference later today.

[President Johnson]

So... Söder's press conference today saying "the decision is up to the CDU" leads me to two possible conclusions: Either he has tactically withdrawn to end this thing after the Greens have announced Baerbock but doesn't want to say so publically, or he has positioned his CDU backers to come out in tonight's chairboard meeting and don't give Laschet the unanimous vote of confidence the latter asked for. The second option would actually be a brilliant political move to let it look like the CDU is calling on him by accepting the "offer" to run. I doubt this would immediately lead to Laschet's withdrawl, but could very well force a vote in the Bundestag faction tomorrow. Söder's supporters are already collecting signatures from within to hold such a vote, which the CSU leader would in all likelyhood win.

[President Johnson]

Here we go: According to Bild live, Laschet backs down and accepts that Kreisvorsitzendenkonferenz (district chairperson conference) is necessary (but still wants a decision in the Vorstand first).

People (including myself) have consistently underestimated Söder. Devious, evil guy, but he has been one step ahead of his opponents at every turn. Anyone thinking he just accepts the Bundesvorstand as the arbiter of his fate without engineering it to break Laschet has, I am afraid, perhaps yet again underestimated him.

If true, Söder has it in the bag. And as much as I like Laschet as a person, he got outmanuvered by the CSU leader who earned victory then. At least Söder is more polarizing as a candidate after the Merkel years and I actually think he would be tougher to handle for Putin, Erdogan and alike than Laschet would be (let alone Baerbock).

[President Johnson]

So if Laschet isn't the nominee for Chancellor, will he resign as leader? What's the point of a party leader who isn't the Chancellor? What role would he play?

It would be difficult, but I can't see him being run out of town as a leader this early with Söder as party leader. However, his standing would be "damaged", which is the real dilemma for the CDU. Their base and Bundestag members mostly want Söder, but stabbing Laschet in the back would be problematic as well.

CDU chancellors usually were always party leaders at the same time. Erhard and Kiesinger took over a few months into their terms. However, SPD chancellor Helmut Schmidt was never party leader throughout the eight years of his tenure. His predecessor Willy Brandt was leader beyond Schmidt's term. Schröder took over the SPD a few months into his term after Oskar Lafontaine quit in a dispute with the chancellor. In 2004, Schröder turned leadership to Franz Müntefering to save his chancellorship amidst backlash against the Agenda 2010. Obviously a CSU chancellor would be something new as their previous two chancellor candidates lost the election (Kohl outmaneuvered Strauß in 1980 by forgoing the nomination since he knew the Union wouldn't win; he later replaced Schmidt by flipping the FDP).

If Söder becomes chancellor, I believe Laschet will stay in Düsseldorf as win reelection as Minister-President in 2022.

[President Johnson]

I wonder what this stunt has accomplished now if Söder actually backs down now? He could have done so a week ago. However, there's a chance he won't. And while I personally prefer Laschet, I'm not sure anymore whether Söder wouldn't be better for two reasons: First, after the Merkel years and depolarizing, lame politics, Söder would at least be more polarizing, just like Kohl was. And second, as I wrote already, I see Söder as someone better equipped to handle autocrats in the world. We need someone who's doing straight talk with Erdogan and Putin.

On the other hand, Laschet's low approvals and Baerbock's inexperience may give Scholz an opening as the true alternative. All he needs is gaining a few points in a volatile environment and surpass the Greens while the Union drops well under 30%.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: According to Tagesschau, Söder wants to accept CDU chairboard vote.

Lmao. What has this accomplished now?

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1384431474032746497

[President Johnson]

Söder should have insisted for a "primary" by allowing all CDU and CSU members to vote for their preferred candidate a few months ago. He would have won such a vote in all likelyhood. One way or the other, it would have given the winner more legitimization than this backroom deal which is clearly against the will of members, Bundestag members and the electorate as a whole. Laschet also could have prevented this drama by immediately insisting on the candidacy after winning the CDU leadership. I think both have damaged themselves.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, I wonder whether that poll is an outlier. Definitely wouldn't bet on the Greens for an election five months out. They could end like Martin Schulz (polls often overestimate the party anyway). Laschet's speech today was actually pretty solid and a pitch for the political center. But, he has a lot of work to do and nominating a candidate against the base's will is problemtic at least.

However, if it was just Laschet vs. Baerbock, I'd prefer Laschet quite easily.

[President Johnson]

I actually wonder what happens if (big if, but still) these numbers last into early summer and show that the Union would surge with Söder? Maybe we could see a revolt to force Laschet out and replace him with Söder.

I wouldn't go as far as calling Laschet a clown; he's not a bad guy and certainly qualified to serve, but Söder more represents strong leadership to an electorate crying out for leadership in these times. I actually feel bad for Armin.