The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[President Johnson]

Biden's inner circle indeed says he's planning on running for reelection.

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1558785571341975555

[President Johnson]

Bernie Sanders leaving the door open to a third White House campaign.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Monday said he hadn’t yet decided whether he will make another bid for the White House.

“That’s a big — you know, I haven’t made that decision,” Sanders said on “CBS Mornings.”

Give it a rest, man, even if Biden doesn't run.

[President Johnson]

On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

Biden already said he's going to run, or intends to run. Should his deteriorate, Harris would absolutely run. She'd start out as the frontrunner for the nomination. Might not be the homerun she hopes for, though her winning the nomination then is still way more likely than not. So the chance neither of these two is on the ticket is marginal.

[President Johnson]

Even if Biden runs- there is a good chance he loses in the Primary. Although this almost never happens... Age/ concern over health capacity ... is one reason that makes this situation different. I also think the risk of losing- is a big reason Biden may end up not running (to ensure he ends long career at President... rather than risk ending a ousted in Primary).

But nationwide polls are very important. The early primaries will set the tone:

The latest NH Primary had Biden in 2nd Place by 1pt (with only 16% support). Harris is in 7th or 8th place with about 6% support.


Also- Iowa isn't naturally fertile ground for Biden. In 2020 Iowa Caucus, he finished 4th (with only 14%). Harris did not meet the threshold to get any votes.

Biden. Will. Not. Lose. A. Primary.

There won't even be a serious challenger. Maybe some fringe left-winger like Nina Turner that gets nowhere. Even Liz Warren and Ro Khanna de facto endorsed Biden for reelection.

[President Johnson]

News on Pompeo:

https://twitter.com/ngaudiano/status/1592246097334128642

[President Johnson]

Whatever that means...

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1594711487947210753

[President Johnson]

Gavin Newsom has told the White House that he won't challenge Biden in 2024.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has won three elections in five years in America’s largest state, is apoplectic about his party’s messaging defects and follows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the right-wing media ecosystem with a zeal that would put some opposition researchers to shame.

But Newsom wants the word to go forth: He’s not going to challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2024.


“I’ve told everyone in the White House, from the chief of staff to the first lady,” he recounted to me as we sat on the top floor of California’s now-ceremonial governor’s mansion on election night.


His message to Ron Klain and Jill Biden over the summer — when he visited Washington amid growing speculation, and considerable West Wing irritation, that he was plotting a primary challenge — was to count him as a firm supporter of Biden’s reelection: “I’m all in, count me in,” he said he told them.

Newsom relayed the same to Biden himself on election night.

If Biden wants to run again - which is very likely - nobody serious is going to challenge him. Just some leftist weirdo that will get like three percent or even drop out ahead of any ballots cast.

[President Johnson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/leezeldin/status/1597714722442588161?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

He's running? Or is this about the RNC chair?

More seems like RNC Chair. Isn't he actually under consideration for that? I admit that he was a case to make for that job.

[President Johnson]

Some sources now claim that Jill Biden is fully on board for 2024, after she seemed more cautious earlier this year, now that the president's decision/announcement is looming:

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1608123642486951936

[President Johnson]

FOLKS:

https://twitter.com/amieparnes/status/1611728150483845121

YEEEEES, Baby! Best news of the year yet. DARK BRANDON 2024!

[President Johnson]

Breakinghttps://mobile.twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1611318483177857024

Other than maybe Liz/Dick Cheney, who in the Republican Party wants Bolton to run? He's not even to going to win the support of 99% of NeverTrumpers.

He just wants attention.

[President Johnson]

Biden likely to announce 2024 reelection bid "not long after" State of the Union address

President Biden is likely to announce his bid for reelection "not long after" he delivers his State of the Union address on Feb. 7, a source with knowledge of the ongoing planning confirmed to CBS News.

The exact date of Mr. Biden's announcement has not been finalized yet, according to the source, who said, "This has always, always been our plan. State of the Union first, candidate later."

[...]

[President Johnson]

CNN today reports that DeSantis doesn't intend to say whether he runs or not before May.

As Trump blusters, DeSantis builds his case but tells people to ‘chill out’ with 2024 talk

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, already a master at sidestepping questions about his political future, is proving equally adept at tiptoeing around Donald Trump as he builds a case for his party’s nomination in 2024.

As Trump staged the unveiling of a third presidential campaign, DeSantis in public and behind closed doors this week has avoided directly responding to the former president – or even mentioning him by name – while still drawing sharp contrasts between the two Republican figures.

[...]

DeSantis’ remarks this week provide an early window into his strategy for navigating Trump ahead of a potential primary matchup. Those close to the Florida governor believe he does not intend to announce his plans before May, CNN previously reported. In the meantime, they expect him to avoid direct confrontations with the former president.

[...]

[President Johnson]

Stuart Rothenberg with a good article surveying the potential GOP field, peppered with Stu's usual wit.  A sample:

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is considering a run. He has a chance, but only if aliens take over planet Earth and install him as the GOP nominee. A down-the-line conservative, Hutchinson tries to be reasonable and doesn’t yell much. That eliminates him.

https://rollcall.com/2023/03/13/the-incredible-shrinking-gop-presidential-field/

Asa Hurchinson will be the Bobby Jindal of 2024.

[President Johnson]

Biden team eyes Delaware for 2024 campaign HQ -sources

WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's team is leaning toward basing his 2024 re-election campaign in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware, and is considering at least three people to serve as his campaign manager, Democratic sources familiar with the matters said.

Biden, who has said he intends to run for re-election but has yet to make a formal announcement, travels regularly on weekends to Wilmington, making it a natural place for political work outside of the White House in Washington.

Philadelphia, home to Biden's 2020 campaign operations, has also been under consideration, the sources said. Biden spent part of his childhood in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and travels regularly to the political battleground state for events.

...

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-team-eyes-delaware-2024-campaign-hq-sources-2023-03-22/

I was curious about the candidates for campaign manager, if anyone else is here they are:

The candidates include Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs and a deputy campaign manager of Biden's 2020 campaign, Jenn Ridder, who served as national states director for Biden's 2020 campaign, and Sam Cornale, executive director of the Democratic National Committee.

Senior White House advisers Mike Donilon and Anita Dunn are expected to be closely involved in political strategy going into the re-election as well.

Jen O'Malley Dillon, who served as Biden's campaign manager in 2020, has ruled out returning to the role in 2024, two sources said.

Dillon probably prefers staying in the White House as she became Deputy Chief of Staff in 2021. Maybe Biden at some point hires her as first female Chief of Staff later on.

[President Johnson]

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp will not run for President in 2024.

Wonder if he has his eyes on the Senate race in 2026.

Very much possible. Maybe he banks on Biden winning reelection by defeating Trump again, which would be a more favorable 2026 climate for him to run.