NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[President Johnson]

A vacancy in the LG office could very well be an opportunity for Max Rose or Anthony Brindisi to make a comeback, as Hochul did after her half-term. Unlike in their house seats, their only worries would be in a primary.

I'd advise Hochul to pick a more progressive lt. governor to widen her appeal. That may even prevent a primary challenge. Maybe even Alessandra Biaggi, although she's not that experienced. But a female duo on the ticket would be interesting and their ideological lanes would be a good balance.

[President Johnson]

A vacancy in the LG office could very well be an opportunity for Max Rose or Anthony Brindisi to make a comeback, as Hochul did after her half-term. Unlike in their house seats, their only worries would be in a primary.

I'd advise Hochul to pick a more progressive lt. governor to widen her appeal. That may even prevent a primary challenge. Maybe even Alessandra Biaggi, although she's not that experienced. But a female duo on the ticket would be interesting and their ideological lanes would be a good balance.

Biaggi isn't progressive.

She was literally endorsed by AOC.

[President Johnson]

Hochul said she will pick a new Lt. Governor within the next two weeks. Let the speculation begin.

She also said it'll be someone most people are familiar with.

I think she also hinted it will be someone from Downstate by saying she likes diversity in the administration. I hope she names a sane progressive who can help in 2022.

[President Johnson]

I'd be really, really surprised if Williams is chosen. I'm not sure what to make of him, whether he's a Nina Turner leftist or more like a non-toxic progressive like Fetterman or Biaggi. If latter is the case and Hochul can get along with him and assign him with some duties he likes to undertake, it could be a good move and essentially shut down a left-wing primary challenge (I would assume both de facto run as a ticket then and endorse each other). Ideally both would run unopposed then. Hochul definitely has moved to the left in recent years, so their differences (maybe) could be worked out. Both would also demonstrate that they more care about the good of the state than past rivaleries, just like Biden-Harris.


On a sidenote, Kathy Hochul's path from the county level to become first female governor of the Empire State is quite unique by taking advantage of creepy men:

- She won her first congressional race after a Republican sending nude pictures to minors resigned in disgrace. Her win was a major upset as the direct was considered Safe Republican.

- Narrowly lost in 2012 in an even redder district to Chris Collins, who later resigned in disgrace and was pardoned by Trump. That loss saved her in the long run, as Cuomo would have picked someone else in 2014. She would have lost her seat that year for certain.

- The guy who picked for the second spot himself succeeded two governors of which done resigned in disgrace after a sex scandal and another one who was forced out after he tried to interfere in a domestic abuser investigation (didn't know that about Paterson). Additionally, the guy Cuomo defeated in 2010 (Carl Paladino) also had a sex scandal at the time.

- In 2018, high-profile attorney general Eric Schneiderman resigned in disgrace after it came out he abused women privately. Subsequently, he was replaced by Tish James, who conducted the investigation into Cuomo. Maybe Schneiderman would have protected Cuomo and later succeeded him?

- Now she becomes governor after Cuomo announced his resignation following allegations of severe sexual harassment.

- Furthermore, Cuomo actually tried to drop her off the ticket in 2018 by floating a congressional run for her old seat in Western New York. She rejected these talks and insisted to stay in Albany.

Hopefully next time it takes less for a woman to get the state's top-job. Anyway, I hope she also becomes the first woman to be elected to the position.

[President Johnson]

Literally no one should be surprised:

https://twitter.com/courtneycgross/status/1425785175141724161

YEEEES! Strongly endorsed! Let's go Queen!

It's good that she immediately made clear to have no intention of being only a placeholder. In the coming months she needs to demonstrate that she can govern effectively and change the political atmosphere in Albany in stark contrast to Cuomo's style. And given her experience and the relationships she has built over most recent years, I'm very confident she'll do exactly that.

DeBlasio would be a horrible candidate and a challenge from him would flop very badly as he's not even popular in New York City. I'm still hopefully Hochul can run unopposed or with just minor opposition in the primary. She'll definitely get some high-profile endorsements from Gillibrand, Schumer and the Clintons, which should carry a lot of weight. Then so can go on and clobber Zeldin or whatever clown the Republicans nominate.

[President Johnson]

Hochul will win easily, her problem is if deblasio challenges her,

No.

which is expected he doesnt. if he somehow won, you will see a republican governor from Ny

Also no.

Why I made this statement, she has zero donor base, deblasio does.

Not true at all (And that's from a few days ago, she isn't even governor yet):

https://twitter.com/JerryZremski/status/1423634712862629891
https://twitter.com/NBCNewYork/status/1424898325094993920

[President Johnson]

Both of these are downstate African Americans with a relatively progressive track record. It can only help her.

[President Johnson]

Hochul also confirmed to CBS that she'll name her L.G. after she takes office rather than during the transition, so unless she literally announces it during her inaugural address, ASC will end up serving as Acting L.G. for more than a few minutes.

Wouldn't an appointment require legislative approval here? Similar to the 25th Amendment? I just remember that Arnold Schwarzenegger had a longer fight over installing Abel Maldonado as his number two in 2009/10. But seems like each state handles this differently.

[President Johnson]

Kathy Hochul today is scheduled to meet not only with Bill DeBlasio, but also Jumaane Williams. Perhaps he's actually vetted for the number two spot?

https://twitter.com/SpecNews1Albany/status/1427609646961987589


Meanwhile, she's already building up for 2022:

https://twitter.com/therealjsolo/status/1427677801143017474

[President Johnson]

Im hearing Cuomo hasn't submitted a formal resignation letter and could possibly rescind his resignation? Is there any merit to this?

He didn't submit the letter yet, but I don't know why he has to do it right now? He could do it on August 23; sources say he's scheduled to be out by the conclusion of that day.

Impeachment procedings would resume immediately should be backtrack. But I don't see it. He has no base to govern anymore. Nobody in Albany support him.

[President Johnson]

This should answer the question (already posted in the resignation megathread):

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1427738159836708867

[President Johnson]

Williams also tweeted this, but I guess we just have to wait whom ultimately gets appointed. So far, her moves seem to confirm my earlier expressions she has more potential for successful governing than many expected.

https://twitter.com/nycpa/status/1427819112345001986

Actually doubt Williams is chosen for lt. gov. One of the black lawmakers from NYC are more likely in my opinion.

I wonder whether there's actually going to be a real primary challenge for Hochul? If she maneuvers the state safely through the coming months, why would Dems replace the 1st female gov? Same actually happened with Gilibrand, who was expected to be challenged in 2010 but never actually was. Like Hochul, she was a rep from a conservative district and suddenly elevated to a position of power. The parallels are striking.

Possible she runs virtually unopposed, but I don't want to bet at it at this point. The parallels with Gillibrand are striking indeed, though I don't know, for some reason I don't like Gillibrand very much while I find Kathy Hochul very likeable.

[President Johnson]

Since Cuomo's resignation takes effect at midnight on Tuesday Hochul will immediately get the first real test of her leadership skills.

You mean because of the Hurricane? I heard Cuomo has just declared a state of emergency?

[President Johnson]

Looks like Hochul has really done some hard outreach since Cuomo announced his resignation, which will be very helpful to govern and secure reelection. Including Cuomo-critics.

From a longer article an interesting passage:

How Kathy Hochul is trying to win over New York and turn the page from Andrew Cuomo

[...]

But so far, she has impressed state leaders.

"The difference between Kathy Hochul and Andrew Cuomo is night and day," said Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, D-Pelham, Westchester County, a vocal Cuomo critic who reached out to Hochul and spoke with her in recent days.

"There was a zero percent relationship with Governor Cuomo."

Cuomo’s poor relationship with the Legislature, which extended to both Democrats and Republicans, played a big role in his demise. As the Assembly moved toward impeaching him, it was clear he did not have the support among lawmakers to stave it off.

Senate Deputy Majority Leader Michael Gianaris, D-Queens, said Hochul began taking steps to engage with key lawmakers even before Cuomo resigned.

Just before Cuomo announced his plan to step down, Hochul traveled to Queens to meet with Gianaris.

“It's a low bar to say someone's going to have a better relationship with the Legislature than Andrew Cuomo because it's hard to imagine it being any worse,” Gianaris said.

“That said, Kathy Hochul has proven to be much more collaborative and has already engaged in more outreach in the last week than Andrew Cuomo had in years.”

[...]

Hochul is widely regarded as a centrist Democrat, though her positions have become increasingly progressive since she has been lieutenant governor, which is more in line with the New York City-dominated Legislature.

“That being said, the importance in the change of style cannot be overstated," Gianaris said.

“To have someone, even if they disagree with you, respect and work with you is going to be a sea change that's going to be to the benefit of all New Yorkers.”

She also hired additional staff:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1429857032203538433

[President Johnson]

Anyway, Hochul will digitally address the state at 3pm on ny.gov.

It was a very good speech:

https://twitter.com/GovKathyHochul/status/1430243867799035910

[President Johnson]

I have to wonder, with Cuomo having resigned, will Zeldin stay in the Governor's race, or will drop out and run for reelection instead.

I think he was clearly running because he thought Cuomo wasn't going to resign and wasn't going to be removed from office. Now that he's gone, maybe he'll calculate that he'll have a better chance at winning reelection, even against Garbarino or Suozzi than statewide against Hochul.

Wasn't his district about to be eliminated or redrawn to a more blue leaning one? At this point, I think he stays in the race and loses to Hochul by 20-25 points.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1430547776572690439

Seems like a very solid choice, although I am disappointed Jumaane didn’t get it.

Jumaane would have been a good gesture, but seems like Benjamin is a very solid choice who's been engaged in criminal justice reform and public housing since becoming a state senator. He also provides a good balance to the ticket. I wonder whether this makes a Williams' gubernatorial bid more likely? Not sure about that, though Hochul should be fine. I'd only consider James a real challenge. However, she's probably not going to run and seek reelection to her post for which she's a top choice.

Although it's still very early, it looks like she does have a great start. Don't want to brag, but I said for quite some time people tend to underestimate her. On the second spot she unfortunately didn't have the chance to be more visible.


More stuff on Cuomo and her:

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1430490287550484488

[President Johnson]

Absolutely amazing is this. Queen

https://twitter.com/GovKathyHochul/status/1430690112015421451


Edit:

And here's the announcement video for Benjamin's lt. governor nomination. Al Sharpton introduced the governor with kind words:

https://twitter.com/GovKathyHochul/status/1430941365542793221

[President Johnson]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2021/09/02/de-blasio-sees-hope-in-gubernatorial-field-as-he-faces-political-wilderness-1390641

[de Blasio], who will leave office in four months due to term limits, has begun calling allies about a prospective run for governor in the wide-open Democratic primary next June.

De Blasio phoned several labor leaders in recent days to gauge support, a union affiliate familiar with the previously unreported conversations told POLITICO.

“He’s letting the leaders know that he’s considering running for governor,” said the person, who requested anonymity to speak freely about the preliminary steps.

I feel confident in saying that Hochul would defeat de Blasio if he challenged her in the primary. Hochul seems to be reaching out to all factions of the Party and is building a good reputation, while de Blasio is despised by both Democrats and Republicans, and his presidential campaign was an utter failure.

If he ran, which I doubt, Kathy would absolutely demolish him. He's just not popular, even in New York City.

At this point, if anyone runs against her, it would be Williams.

[President Johnson]

It's early, but everywhere go you, the tenor is the same: Relations between the Executive chamber and State Legislature have improved a lot. Hochul is building (or expanding) alliances, which is giving her a boost to win next years quite easily.

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1435664239461535747

[President Johnson]

Zeldin probably should step aside for his own well being, he's not going to win a November election anyway. And never was, even with Cuomo.

I'm not sure James is actually going to run. What would be her argument to replace Hochul? Ideological differences or a scandal would be compelling arguments, but otherwise, I don't see the Democrats abandon the first female chief executive. She'll certainly have Hillary Clinton and Gillibrand supporting her, and Brian Benjamin's appointment was a smart move to gain support in black community in New York. Also, Hochul outraised James even before taking office and was ahead in the most recent poll from before her swearing in.

I hope Queen Kathy can run unopposed for the Democrats.

[President Johnson]

It's still early, but Hochul seems like a perfect fit for the state at large.

Interestingly there are many parallels to Gilibrand: Both started off as a congresswoman in a red district with relative moderate views and then were unexpectedly elevated to higher office and became more liberal. However, as I stated earlier in the thread, I find Hochul much more likeable. Both apparently know and like each other though and I'm certain Gilibrand will endorse and campaign for Hochul.

[President Johnson]

Jumaane is going to lose by a wider margin than 2018 unless Hochul screws it up in the meantime (doubtful).

[President Johnson]

Hochul has done a tremendous job so far. I think she'd beat Williams pretty easily. James is still a very strong challenger, if she chooses to run. She may end up hanging around at AG and biding her time for now though.

Well, the last poll and only of value was conducted between Cuomo's announcement to resign and before he actually left. Hochul was already ahead against any challenger(s). Not sure it means much, though even in the not so likely case James runs, Hochul still can win easily. Especially with support from heaviyweights Schumer, Gillibrand and the Clintons. Why should the Democrats even abandon the first woman in the office who's running a scandal-free administration and with a totally different leadership style than Cuomo? Furthermore, James would gamble with a gubernatorial bid since she can't run for her current job at the same time, in which her reelection would be assured.

I think Kathy is also the best candidate for the general election. Even though no Democrat is endangered to lose, Hochul is the best choice to halt or reverse Upstate Democratic losses (especially with Schumer on the same ballot). It's not necessarily a good thing for governor to only get elected by New York City.

I still hope she can run unopposed; just like Brian Benjamin. Not sure anyone has expressed in interest in challenging him?

[President Johnson]

Saw this in the NY Post first, though now confirmed by other sources. Clearly shows how Cuomo is a disloyal POS. So good that he's out.

https://twitter.com/bern_hogan/status/1445545598485102593


Also seems she's not concerned about DeBlasio:

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1445776569692143621