Would the Virginia-at-large be a swing state now? Or Republican-leaning? And what about the state level?
In 2016, for example, the state would have gone to Trump by a narrow margin of to 48.06% to 46.18%. Yes, I was surprised the margin is still so close despite Trump winning West Virginia 68-27% and losing Virginia only 50-44%. But I calculated it twice (see below). Under this scenario, the Democrat could easily win the entire state by winning actual Virginia with Ralph Northam's 2017 numbers (54-45%) and improving a little in West Virginia, say narrowing it down to 65-30%.
Random note on 2016: Trump would have still won the Electoral College by taking Virginia-at-large even if Hillary managed to take Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in addition to all other states she carried (except for Virginia of course). She'd be at 265 electoral votes under this scenario.
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Calculation:
Hillary: 1,981,473 votes in VA + 188,794 in WV = 2,170,267 votes for her in total
Trump: 489,371 votes in WV + 1,769,443 in VA = 2,258,814 votes for Donald
Total votes cast: 3,984,631 in VA + 714,423 in WV = 4,699,054 votes in both states
Hillary: 2,170,267 / 4,699,054 x 100 = 46.18%
Trump: 2,258,423 / 4,699,054 x 100 = 48.06%
* almost the national popular vote in reverse
Source: Wikipedia, results by state
