SurvyUSA 2012 Polls: Obama far ahead of Romney, Palin

[Alcon]

The gap between the Oregon and Washington polls may be the least believable thing in the history of ever.  Obama +45 vs. Romney in WA and +9 in OR?  Obama +42 vs. Palin in WA and +6 in OR?  Um, yeah

[Alcon]

There are a sh**t load of hicks in Oregon. Then again, there are a lot of 'em in Washington. Then again, Eastern Washington is beginning to modernize as Seattle fills up.

Outside of a few spots in Okanogan and Chelan County, and around Snoqualmie Pass, there really isn't that much "Westernization" in Eastern Washington, in the "Seattle people moving East en masse" sense.  It's not exactly close enough in to be anything but vacationland/retirementworld.

Over 60% of Eastern Washington is in three counties (Benton, Spokane, Yakima).  "Hicks" maybe, but that doesn't really make sense; Obama won Oregon by 16 with "hicks" in full force.  They don't love Palin that much, and they aren't that numerous.

If Washington is going to swing 25 points to the Democrats, Oregon is going to swing 10 points to the Republicans?  It doesn't make any sense.

[Alcon]

There are a sh**t load of hicks in Oregon. Then again, there are a lot of 'em in Washington. Then again, Eastern Washington is beginning to modernize as Seattle fills up.

Outside of a few spots in Okanogan and Chelan County, and around Snoqualmie Pass, there really isn't that much "Westernization" in Eastern Washington, in the "Seattle people moving East en masse" sense.  It's not exactly close enough in to be anything but vacationland/retirementworld.

Over 60% of Eastern Washington is in three counties (Benton, Spokane, Yakima).  "Hicks" maybe, but that doesn't really make sense; Obama won Oregon by 16 with "hicks" in full force.  They don't love Palin that much, and they aren't that numerous.

If Washington is going to swing 25 points to the Democrats, Oregon is going to swing 10 points to the Republicans?  It doesn't make any sense.

So Oregon is the 1-in-20.

The thing about 1-in-20s is that, it's not like 1-in-20 polls just randomly explodes like this.  The chance that a poll is off by like 20 points is much, much greater than 1-in-20.  I'm not saying it's statistically impossible but it's a result to be extremely skeptical of.

[Alcon]

it's a result to be extremely skeptical of.

Yes, it is.

Well, if this is all just a weird unfunny set-up for the Bachmann joke at the bottom, they're all results to be skeptical of.