Assume a High Voter Turnout in November

[Alcon]

I'm expecting turnout to be higher numerically, but I think it will be lower as a percent of registered voters.

[Alcon]

I'm expecting turnout to be higher numerically, but I think it will be lower as a percent of registered voters.

I agree. And, J. J., it doesn't depend on who turns out. Unlike 2004, it is eminently obvious who would be the ones turning out in a high-turnout election.

In the current landscape, sure, but the sheer complexity of the variables between now and November (youths deciding Obamamania was just another passing fad, the emergence of culture war along the fissure lines of gay marriage, etc etc) means no, it is not eminently obvious who benefits from a high turnout.

Actually, I think that the highest turnout will start to curve toward McCain.  I see this as a reverse 2004 -- Bush got the turnout he needed, very high but no earth-shatteringly.  That's the kind of turnout, IMHO, that would benefit Obama this year.  It's also essentially the best I expect.

[Alcon]

I'm expecting turnout to be higher numerically, but I think it will be lower as a percent of registered voters.

I agree. And, J. J., it doesn't depend on who turns out. Unlike 2004, it is eminently obvious who would be the ones turning out in a high-turnout election.

No, actually it isn't.  Will there a larger or smaller than normal turnout of suburban women, for example?  How about white working class Democrats?

Even if Obama under-performs among working-class Democrats, he's still not going to lose them, so increased turnout will still help him.

[Alcon]

I might depend on which working class "Democrats" turn out. I think it is all very fluid. Both candidates are pretty well liked in general, which also makes things fluid.

If it were just "the working class," I'd agree.  But whenever you add "Democrats" to a phrase, you have trouble finding a group that's going to even come close to voting McCain.

[Alcon]

I suppose the swing does count, but I just realized J. J. was probably talking about decreased turnout among those groups among ex-Clintonites.

I honestly think there'd need to be a lot of that to make up for the low GOP enthusiasm levels.  I just wish we could get an Obama vs. McCain poll that breaks down support to "very enthusiastic" through "not at all enthusiastic."  If Obama has a lot of the latter, and it's life-long Democrats who won't bother, he may have trouble.