NC-SurveyUSA: Obama's lead down to 5

[Alcon]

Obama 49% (-1)
Clinton 44% (+3)

[Alcon]

Where are you getting this info? Nothing is on the SurveyUSA webpage.

There's an affiliate TV station in North Carolina that accidentally leaked it.  It's real.

SUSA is a great pollster, but their Indiana swing worries me (even if it was an odd poll) and they have a history this season of undercounting Southern blacks.

[Alcon]

This is why I'm skeptical.

Assume the black vote is 90% Obama (a solid assumption)

Assume the white vote is 2-to-1 Clinton (a generous assumption)

The electorate would have to be 70.2% white in order for Clinton to win, and 65.8% white for her to come within 5 points.

[Alcon]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

[Alcon]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

I'm confused.  Is 46% the % of the population in the 2004 primary that was black.  Or is this the % of Kerry's vote in the 2004 general election?  The distinction is quite important.

I guess a bit over 3/4 of the 2004 General turnout is what we saw in Virginia, so I guess that's reasonable.

[Alcon]

I know it isn't.  My point was, if blacks consisting only 3/4 (or less) their percentage of Kerry's vote is possible in Virginia, it definitely is in North Carolina.

[Alcon]

Didn't Edwards win NC in 2004?

Yes, as a caucus.