Kaine and Kilgore tied in new Rasmussen Poll (user search)
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  Kaine and Kilgore tied in new Rasmussen Poll (search mode)
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Author Topic: Kaine and Kilgore tied in new Rasmussen Poll  (Read 2850 times)
Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
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« on: September 30, 2005, 10:07:52 AM »

Peaking at the right time.  Like someone else said in another thread, you may see a Republican victory in NJ and a Democratic victory in VA.

...or, more likely, a republican vicotry in both.

Well, yes, but it's also more likely that there will be a Democratic victory in both.
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2005, 07:54:24 PM »

I still think that VA is leaning towards Kilgore, if only for reasons of general partisan advantage, what does however seem to be the case is that the momentum is on Kaine’s side and as I said he would do he’s got his second wind, just at the time when Warner has begun to campaign hard across the state… its still a tossup but the momentum is working to Kaine’s advantage right now, doesn’t mean he’ll win, but as I’ve been saying for weeks he’s narrowing the gap.

Actually, Kaine is trying to cover up his past and pretend that he's 'Warner Jr.'

However, Kaine has two major weaknesses:

First, his opposition to the right to keep and bear arms,

Second, his support for illegal immigration.

Both matters are likely to loom large on election day.

I do not mean to offend, but you seem to act as if these two issues are unusually important in every race.  They are important, to be sure, but I don't see how these issues would loom more on election day than in polling?

I have never heard much about people walking into the polling booth and saying "well, I was supporting the Democrat, but now that I think about his immigration and gun control, I can't possibly vote for him."  Abortion, sure.  Gay marriage, yes.  I'm sure it happens with gun control and immigration, but I do not think that a huge proportion of the population will decide the race based on these two issues alone on election day, so your assertion is a bit odd.
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Alcon
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,866
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2005, 05:47:22 PM »

Finally, with respect  to the problem with the polls, there is a key problem with the turnout models used.

Would you like to explain that?
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