the 2004 white vote

[Alcon]

NY and CA surprise me a bit, I suppose, but otherwise nothing to phone home about.

I'm also surprised that (possibly excluding African-Americans) CNN's exit polling say that whites were Kerry's strongest ethnic group in Hawaii.

[Alcon]

Sure upstate NY would be a lean-Rep swing state without NYC & suburbs (exclude the exurbs as well if you want to have a realistic map), but it would have less than half of NY's EVs and be losing more fast, as nobody wants to move there.

Upstate NY has long been economically depressed.  I think one of the major problems there is that NY is an exceptionally high-tax state. 

NYC can get away with this to some extent, because it has certain advantages that make it worthwhile for people to pay those high taxes.

But upstate doesn't have those advantages, and with a high-tax structure that is effectively imposed by NYC, it finds it very difficult to attract business.  This is an example of my contention that NYC is a political drag on the state as a whole.

I'm not exactly pro-tax, but I find the decline of local industry to be more the reason of upstate New York's issues than high taxes...

[Alcon]

Sure upstate NY would be a lean-Rep swing state without NYC & suburbs (exclude the exurbs as well if you want to have a realistic map), but it would have less than half of NY's EVs and be losing more fast, as nobody wants to move there.

Upstate NY has long been economically depressed.  I think one of the major problems there is that NY is an exceptionally high-tax state. 

NYC can get away with this to some extent, because it has certain advantages that make it worthwhile for people to pay those high taxes.

But upstate doesn't have those advantages, and with a high-tax structure that is effectively imposed by NYC, it finds it very difficult to attract business.  This is an example of my contention that NYC is a political drag on the state as a whole.

I'm not exactly pro-tax, but I find the decline of local industry to be more the reason of upstate New York's issues than high taxes...

High taxes prevent upstate NY from attracting business to replace local industry that has declined.  And high taxes are part of the reason for the decline of local industry.  High taxes prevent places from adjusting to economic challenges and changes, and that is what has happened, in part, in upstate NY.

I do agree, but low taxes alone are not going to fix upstate New York's problems in my view.  There will always be ceaper area with cheaper land than upstate New York, even if NYC was to suddenly disappear and lower tax rates.  Part of the area's problem is that it is simply no longer  "hot," and will continue having difficulty rebounding from economic hardship until it finds a niche, and low taxes alone cannot provide that niche in time while at the same time maintaining government services that improve the area.

This is from an outsider with a basic knowledge of economics at  best, so please do correct me if my comments make no freaking sense, which I would be unsurprised to find out they do.

[Alcon]

I do agree, but low taxes alone are not going to fix upstate New York's problems in my view.  There will always be ceaper area with cheaper land than upstate New York, even if NYC was to suddenly disappear and lower tax rates.  Part of the area's problem is that it is simply no longer  "hot," and will continue having difficulty rebounding from economic hardship until it finds a niche, and low taxes alone cannot provide that niche in time while at the same time maintaining government services that improve the area.

This is from an outsider with a basic knowledge of economics at  best, so please do correct me if my comments make no freaking sense, which I would be unsurprised to find out they do.

Much of what you say is true, but high taxes make it very difficult to find a niche because they scare off a lot of business.

True, but wouldn't it be better to find and plan a niche before cutting taxes?  If the business doesn't come, the taxpayers may feel cheated and just institute even higher taxes than before.