PPP: Huckabee and Palin leading in Missouri

[Whacker77]

I guess Romney is still likely to run, but I don't see an easy path for him.  It really depends on what Huckabee does.  If Huck doesn't run, Romney would just be wasting his money in Iowa as the majority of Huck support would go to Palin.  If Huck runs, there's always a chance Palin and Huck split the vote and allow Romney to come from behind.  Doubtful.

Romney's best bet is to cede Iowa to Palin and then aim his sights on South Carolina and hope a likely win in New Hampshire gives him momentum.  Honestly, I don't see it though.  Palin is going to be extremely tough to beat in South Carolina, especially with Haley probably backing her.  If Sarah gets those two states, then how do the others continue.  This is why I say Palin is the prohibitive front runner.

The wildcard in Newt.  Honestly, I can't believe he is a serious candidate, but I haven't quite figured out how he plays into all of this.  My guess is he ends up on the outside looking in.  Palin and Huck go after one group of primary voters, Romney gets the more establishment voters, and Newt is left to pick up the leftovers.  I don't think there's enough room for him, but it will give him the opportunity to hock another book.

[Whacker77]

Agree Palin's tone is more appealing to limbaugh fans who strike me as more male.  My gut feeling is women as a group aren't as hardline on social conservatism, a la Laura Bush, Meghan McCain, Kay Bailey Hutchinson.  I wonder if more of these women prefer Huckabee's reasonable tone, even if his actual stances on social issues is more severe.

I'm not sure I would characterize Laura Bush, KBH, and dopey Meghan McCain as standard Republican women.