NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[TarHeelDem]

OJEDA +21 BAH GAWD

[TarHeelDem]

Could people stop overreacting? Not enough voters polled yet.

What are you talking about? It wouldn't be Atlas if we didn't indulge in overreaction.

[TarHeelDem]

Ojeda down to +14! Behold the TIGHTENING!

[TarHeelDem]

Right now Black voters are breaking 73% for McCready and 2% for Harris, with 25% undecided. I assume that 25% will go to McCready in the end (and make the topline look much more realistic than it does right now).

[TarHeelDem]

Rossi was up big early on in WA-08, and he finished down by 1, so it's too early to just to any conclusions about NC-09. As for the MI-08 poll, either it's off by a lot, of Bishop shouldn't be getting triaged.

Re:Bishop I imagine the internals for both sides are showing really different numbers than the NYT poll.

[TarHeelDem]

Rossi was up big early on in WA-08, and he finished down by 1, so it's too early to just to any conclusions about NC-09. As for the MI-08 poll, either it's off by a lot, of Bishop shouldn't be getting triaged.

Re:Bishop I imagine the internals for both sides are showing really different numbers than the NYT poll.

In this case it's probably better to go by the fact that national groups are pulling out of this district than this one poll. Both sides have probably been polling this place a lot and evidently they both realized that its fate was likely sealed, and moved money elsewhere. That is essentially an implicit statement that Slotkin is consistently leading in polls, despite what this one shows.

Another reminder to not rely too heavily on these polls in prognosticating.

Exactly. The NYT has produced several serious outliers already, no?

[TarHeelDem]

It's getting hard for me to take the NYT numbers very seriously...

[TarHeelDem]

I genuinely think a lot of these congressional race polls are off. That's the risk you take by doing so many polls in such a short time frame, but I'm seriously at the point where I think these call centers are having trouble reaching democratic voters.

Almost everything they've polled recently has been Lean R-Likely R districts. Only real toss up was NC-09.

NC-13 is a Toss-Up.

[TarHeelDem]

I genuinely think a lot of these congressional race polls are off. That's the risk you take by doing so many polls in such a short time frame, but I'm seriously at the point where I think these call centers are having trouble reaching democratic voters.

Almost everything they've polled recently has been Lean R-Likely R districts. Only real toss up was NC-09.

NC-13 is a Toss-Up.

It's an R+6 seat, is it really considered a toss-up?

With the GCB where it is, absolutely.