Northern Virginia population growth

[stevekamp]

In Virginia, 2012 Obama at Atlas website 51.16% overperformed Obama national by 0.15 of a point -- not much, but its' the first Virginia Democratic overperformance of national since FDR 1944 (VA 62.36% vs national 53.39%)(Obama 2008 -- national 52.87%, Virginia 52.63% -- minus 0.24; 1964 LBJ VA 53.54%, national 61.05% -- minus 7.51).

If Virginia continues to overperform -- and it probably will because between 2004 and 2012,   
the Republicans have added only 105,563 Virginia votes, whereas the Democrats have added 517,078 -- Republicans are deservedly doomed in the EC unless they flip Pennsylvania (unlikely) because Kerry-Obama-Obama 246 + Iowa 6 + New Mexico 5 + Virginia 13 = 270 without Florida, Ohio, NC, Nevada, or Colorado.

R posters who assert GOP will flip Pennsylvania: prove you can eliminate D margins in Philly, the suburban quartet, and in Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Wayne-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Schuylkill-Pike Carbon

[stevekamp]

If Opebo and nonswing voter are correct, the Ds have a 272 EV lock -- Kerry 246 + Iowa 6 + N Mex 5 = 257 + Nevada 6 + Colorado 9 = 272

[stevekamp]

Never good to take any state for granted, but the 2012 Republican Iowa raw number is BELOW not only the winning Bush 2004 number, but also the losing-by-10059 Kerry number. In contrast, Democrats fell only 6,396 even as Romney was outpacing McCain by 48,238.

2004 Republican 751,957 -- post 1952 Republican high raw number

2004 Kerry  741,898

2012 Romney 730,617

2008 Obama 828,940
2012 Obama 822,544