Northern Virginia population growth

[Non Swing Voter]

According to the US Census, the state of Virginia grew by 184,000 people between 2010 and 2012.  115,000 of that (63%) occurred in the major jurisdictions in Northern Virginia (Arlington County, Alexandria City, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Loudon County, Prince William County, Manassas City).

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/virginia_map.html

I didn't add the numbers for the rest of the state, but it looks like most of the counties in Southwestern Virginia (Republican stronghold) lost between 1-5% of their population between 2010 and 2012.

The other growth areas appear to be the Virginia Beach area and Richmond city.

If these trends continue, NOVA will increase from almost 30% of the state population to about 40% of the state population by the 2030's.

I think with NOVA at 40% (assuming no dramatic shifts in demographic voting patterns) we can safely move Virginia from purple to blue state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That Democrats now cheer mushrooming suburban sprawl is rather telling.

[Beet]

It's not all suburban sprawl. In the Tyson's Corner area there's a concerted effort to mingle residential, commercial and professional office space to reduce traffic and make the area 'walkable'. And City Center DC, while not in Virginia, is another example- office buildings, apartments and condos rolled up into the same set of interconnected buildings.

[The Free North]

That Democrats now cheer mushrooming suburban sprawl is rather telling.

Most of that growth isn't even really "suburban sprawl."

Arlington and Alexandria are basically just extensions of DC.

A lot of parts of Fairfax, especially right on the metro line are more urban than suburban.  It's basically as dense as parts of New York City burroughs.

Id like to see a stat on the last part of this post.

NYC:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Looks like you have a few areas of around 5k and thats it in VA

[ElectionsGuy]

That Democrats now cheer mushrooming suburban sprawl is rather telling.

Most of that growth isn't even really "suburban sprawl."

Arlington and Alexandria are basically just extensions of DC.

A lot of parts of Fairfax, especially right on the metro line are more urban than suburban.  It's basically as dense as parts of New York City burroughs.

Id like to see a stat on the last part of this post.

NYC:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Looks like you have a few areas of around 5k and thats it in VA

According to the US Census, Alexandria (City) is the most densly populated county equivalent, at around 9,000 people/square mile. So yes, its not near NYC.

[barfbag]

According to the US Census, the state of Virginia grew by 184,000 people between 2010 and 2012.  115,000 of that (63%) occurred in the major jurisdictions in Northern Virginia (Arlington County, Alexandria City, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Loudon County, Prince William County, Manassas City).

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/virginia_map.html

I didn't add the numbers for the rest of the state, but it looks like most of the counties in Southwestern Virginia (Republican stronghold) lost between 1-5% of their population between 2010 and 2012.

The other growth areas appear to be the Virginia Beach area and Richmond city.

If these trends continue, NOVA will increase from almost 30% of the state population to about 40% of the state population by the 2030's.

I think with NOVA at 40% (assuming no dramatic shifts in demographic voting patterns) we can safely move Virginia from purple to blue state.

We won't know until we see real votes. I think Virginia will match the national vote for two more elections before it moves center-left. Republicans must learn how to campaign there though.

[stevekamp]

In Virginia, 2012 Obama at Atlas website 51.16% overperformed Obama national by 0.15 of a point -- not much, but its' the first Virginia Democratic overperformance of national since FDR 1944 (VA 62.36% vs national 53.39%)(Obama 2008 -- national 52.87%, Virginia 52.63% -- minus 0.24; 1964 LBJ VA 53.54%, national 61.05% -- minus 7.51).

If Virginia continues to overperform -- and it probably will because between 2004 and 2012,   
the Republicans have added only 105,563 Virginia votes, whereas the Democrats have added 517,078 -- Republicans are deservedly doomed in the EC unless they flip Pennsylvania (unlikely) because Kerry-Obama-Obama 246 + Iowa 6 + New Mexico 5 + Virginia 13 = 270 without Florida, Ohio, NC, Nevada, or Colorado.

R posters who assert GOP will flip Pennsylvania: prove you can eliminate D margins in Philly, the suburban quartet, and in Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Wayne-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Schuylkill-Pike Carbon

[opebo]

Republicans are deservedly doomed in the EC unless they flip Pennsylvania (unlikely) because Kerry-Obama-Obama 246 + Iowa 6 + New Mexico 5 + Virginia 13 = 270 without Florida, Ohio, NC, Nevada, or Colorado.

Great analysis, but its a bit of a stretch to lump NV in with those other very weak D wins.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans are deservedly doomed in the EC unless they flip Pennsylvania (unlikely) because Kerry-Obama-Obama 246 + Iowa 6 + New Mexico 5 + Virginia 13 = 270 without Florida, Ohio, NC, Nevada, or Colorado.

Great analysis, but its a bit of a stretch to lump NV in with those other very weak D wins.

Colorado is nearly as solid as Nevada.

[memphis]

Isn't half of Staten Island a garbage dump?

[stevekamp]

If Opebo and nonswing voter are correct, the Ds have a 272 EV lock -- Kerry 246 + Iowa 6 + N Mex 5 = 257 + Nevada 6 + Colorado 9 = 272

[ElectionsGuy]

If Opebo and nonswing voter are correct, the Ds have a 272 EV lock -- Kerry 246 + Iowa 6 + N Mex 5 = 257 + Nevada 6 + Colorado 9 = 272

Those states are by no means "locked".

[Skill and Chance]

If Opebo and nonswing voter are correct, the Ds have a 272 EV lock -- Kerry 246 + Iowa 6 + N Mex 5 = 257 + Nevada 6 + Colorado 9 = 272

Those states are by no means "locked".

NM could be.  The others absolutely aren't.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Opebo and nonswing voter are correct, the Ds have a 272 EV lock -- Kerry 246 + Iowa 6 + N Mex 5 = 257 + Nevada 6 + Colorado 9 = 272

Those states are by no means "locked".

NM could be.  The others absolutely aren't.

I could actually argue that even NM isn't. Hispanic voters around these stable consistent voters for democrats. But ultimately, democrats are pretty favored there.

Would people say Missouri is locked for republicans? I wouldn't say so.

[Skill and Chance]

If Opebo and nonswing voter are correct, the Ds have a 272 EV lock -- Kerry 246 + Iowa 6 + N Mex 5 = 257 + Nevada 6 + Colorado 9 = 272

Those states are by no means "locked".

NM could be.  The others absolutely aren't.

I could actually argue that even NM isn't. Hispanic voters around these stable consistent voters for democrats. But ultimately, democrats are pretty favored there.

Would people say Missouri is locked for republicans? I wouldn't say so.

Yes with the possible exception of someone like Scott Brown or Christie.  But a Southern SoCon could crack 60% there in a national tie.

[opebo]

Yeah NM and MO are pretty much locked, that's right.

NV is getting pretty close to that, but IA no, and CO no.

[stevekamp]

Never good to take any state for granted, but the 2012 Republican Iowa raw number is BELOW not only the winning Bush 2004 number, but also the losing-by-10059 Kerry number. In contrast, Democrats fell only 6,396 even as Romney was outpacing McCain by 48,238.

2004 Republican 751,957 -- post 1952 Republican high raw number

2004 Kerry  741,898

2012 Romney 730,617

2008 Obama 828,940
2012 Obama 822,544

[JacobNC]

I think Christie could still win VA.  Maybe even against Hillary.

[CountryClassSF]

That's an assumption that I don't mind Democrats having. Democrats could not possibly have done better in Fairfax County and the DC Metro area, which is far different from the rest of Virginia as you know.

Democrats can't possibly do better than 08 and 12 elections, just look at Obama's approval ratings. They've hit a peak. Just because NoVa is growing doesn't mean it's only Democrats moving in.

Ken Cuccinelli was abandoned By RINO RNC and nearly pulled off an upset despite being down 10 pts, and this was BEFORE "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan." I love how Democrats win 2 elections, and think it's some permanent thing. Be overconfident all you want!

[Smash255]

That's an assumption that I don't mind Democrats having. Democrats could not possibly have done better in Fairfax County and the DC Metro area, which is far different from the rest of Virginia as you know.

Democrats can't possibly do better than 08 and 12 elections, just look at Obama's approval ratings. They've hit a peak. Just because NoVa is growing doesn't mean it's only Democrats moving in.

Ken Cuccinelli was abandoned By RINO RNC and nearly pulled off an upset despite being down 10 pts, and this was BEFORE "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan." I love how Democrats win 2 elections, and think it's some permanent thing. Be overconfident all you want!

There is no indication the Dem momentum in NOVA is slowing down anytime soon and while its not only Democrats moving in, hey are certainly moving at a faster clip than Republicans. Cuccinelli lost NOVA by larger margin than Romney did. 

It is also more than just NOVA.  Look at suburban Richmond.  Chesterfield is still GOP, but nowhere near as Republican as it once was, Henrico is almost a carbon copy of Prince William.

The problem for the GOP is the GOP trending areas of the state have seen minimal if any growth and are small in population, the Dem trending areas are large and exploding in population.  There have been little signs of anything changing in that regard.  Hell, Romney is probably the best Republican for NOVA

[CubanoTX]

I will need to agree VA has a strong Dem invasion from the states that are dying out (all dem controlled BTW) So unless the Republicans can reach out and switch there politics around its gonna be a tough battle ahead. Florida is in the same boat more retired yankees are moving there and most are uber liberal. Now Texas for some reason seems to get all the conservatives from california that are sick of JB Moonbeem, maybe the GOP can reach out to some midwestern conservatives and get them there to offset the plague of liberals destroying VA

[opebo]

the states that are dying out (all dem controlled BTW)

What?  I think only Michigan has lost population in the last decade or so, and its state government is largely Republican.

[All Along The Watchtower]

the states that are dying out (all dem controlled BTW)

What?  I think only Michigan has lost population in the last decade or so, and its state government is largely Republican.

But the parts of Michigan that have grown are largely the god-awful suburban/exurban/faux-rural sprawl (sorry Cathcon! ), which are the places where Republicans of the "Right-Wing Nutjob" variety usually come from.

[DINGO Joe]

I will need to agree VA has a strong Dem invasion from the states that are dying out (all dem controlled BTW) So unless the Republicans can reach out and switch there politics around its gonna be a tough battle ahead. Florida is in the same boat more retired yankees are moving there and most are uber liberal. Now Texas for some reason seems to get all the conservatives from california that are sick of JB Moonbeem, maybe the GOP can reach out to some midwestern conservatives and get them there to offset the plague of liberals destroying VA

Yes, as WV is dying out they're all moving to VA and making it more D, it all makes sense now.

[hopper]

the states that are dying out (all dem controlled BTW)

What?  I think only Michigan has lost population in the last decade or so, and its state government is largely Republican.

But the parts of Michigan that have grown are largely the god-awful suburban/exurban/faux-rural sprawl (sorry Cathcon! ), which are the places where Republicans of the "Right-Wing Nutjob" variety usually come from.

No and Yes. Oakland County is not largely Republican even though the County Exec is a Republican. Kent County is Republican yes. Livingston is hugely Dem though. Wayne is losing population like crazy.