Bradley Effect

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Saxony example is rather poor, especially since the counter-example of Deval Patrick (and before him Douglas Wilder) exist. Paterson too but he arguably doesn't count.

I'll agree with Phil about the Scottish PM thing too. Don't know much about Kashubians though they are still white, frankly that might be more of a parallel to some really stereotypically Italian guy being elected President than a black.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That map is misleading since it deals with raw numbers, not per capita rates. I also suspect it underreports in some states, only one racially motivated crime in Alabama in 2006? LOL. I'd also laugh at the thought of only one black on white racially motivated crime in Alabama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There was no Bradley Effect in Iowa. The polling average gave Obama 54%. He got...54%. He never had outside the MoE in any recent polls. There was no mass lying to any pollster saying they would vote for Obama who then went to vote for McCain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There was no Bradley Effect in Iowa. The polling average gave Obama 54%. He got...54%. He never had outside the MoE in any recent polls. There was no mass lying to any pollster saying they would vote for Obama who then went to vote for McCain.

Technically people saying they're undecided but really not could be counted as a B.E.

However, it's asinine to assume this isn't just due to poor weighting or leaners dissatisfied with McCain (he wasn't popular in the caucus if you remember).  Especially when it doesn't show up in other states with similar demographics!

Exactly. There's a million reasons why polls could be off or undecideds can break heavily, etc. But try telling that to J. J., who basically argues any discrepancy in McCain's favor MUST be the Almighty Bradley Effect.