Official West Virginia Democratic Primary Discussion Thread...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was one delegate off, looks like it'll be 20-8. Oh well. Hardly changes the situation much. Note no movement on InTrade.

Hey, Obama needed 150 delegates to clinch the nomination before tonight, now he needs 142. A little bit closer.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

1.  most of those plain states had a caucus, which is completely un-democratic.  working people cant always show up at 7pm.  give them a 13 hour window.

And do you think any of them would've flipped in a primary? Unlikely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

if i were a democrat, id be worried.  this shows obama has a very serious problem with the white working class.

forget wv.  how the hell is he going to win pa or oh or even va if he cant do better among the blue collars?

i dont say this as a hack.  if i had to vote today. id probably vote obama over mccain.

I think it's pretty ridiculous that whites are only "working class" if they live in Appalachia. Yes, Clinton is winning white Appalachians. But Obama is winning white "working class" voters as well, in the Plains states, in the Mountain West, and states like Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.

And he hasn't wone of those since March.

Because none have voted since then. He will in June though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

if i were a democrat, id be worried.  this shows obama has a very serious problem with the white working class.

forget wv.  how the hell is he going to win pa or oh or even va if he cant do better among the blue collars?

i dont say this as a hack.  if i had to vote today. id probably vote obama over mccain.

I think it's pretty ridiculous that whites are only "working class" if they live in Appalachia. Yes, Clinton is winning white Appalachians. But Obama is winning white "working class" voters as well, in the Plains states, in the Mountain West, and states like Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.

And he hasn't wone of those since March.

Because none have voted since then. He will in June though.

Oh, please.  You've had that in OH, PA, IN and WV. 

The question will be, how many "working class" voters will there be in the rest.

As I've said, the demographics are horrid.

I'm talking about South Dakota and Montana. Which are plains states, unlike the ones you listed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

if i were a democrat, id be worried.  this shows obama has a very serious problem with the white working class.

forget wv.  how the hell is he going to win pa or oh or even va if he cant do better among the blue collars?

i dont say this as a hack.  if i had to vote today. id probably vote obama over mccain.

I think it's pretty ridiculous that whites are only "working class" if they live in Appalachia. Yes, Clinton is winning white Appalachians. But Obama is winning white "working class" voters as well, in the Plains states, in the Mountain West, and states like Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.

And he hasn't wone of those since March.

Because none have voted since then. He will in June though.

Oh, please.  You've had that in OH, PA, IN and WV. 

The question will be, how many "working class" voters will there be in the rest.

As I've said, the demographics are horrid.

I'm talking about South Dakota and Montana. Which are plains states, unlike the ones you listed.

I'm talking about the white "working class" which was the subject of the post.

I don't think this is over (largely because Clinton is tenacious, and has the morals of a Styrofoam cup). 

And what are Montana and South Dakota? Latte liberal land?

Montana and South Dakota will be interesting, actually.

Isn't every state "interesting" except for the ones where all you need is racial demographics and you can already draw the entire county map?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Montana and South Dakota will be interesting, actually.

Isn't every state "interesting" except for the ones where all you need is racial demographics and you can already draw the entire county map?

Those states are interesting too.

So then what states aren't interesting?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Montana and South Dakota will be interesting, actually.

Isn't every state "interesting" except for the ones where all you need is racial demographics and you can already draw the entire county map?

Those states are interesting too.

So then what states aren't interesting?

Minnesota and North Dakota.

I actually did find interesting quirks in the maps there, but how's ND not interesting and SD is?

brtd is so far gone that it isnt even worth arguing.

of course (the great) obama is going to win the presidency.  forget about florida, west virginia, michigan, pennsylvania  ohio/...the (great) obama is going to win virginia, georgia, and most importnatly kansas and the dakotas!!!!1333453i6u

Please find a post of mine where I have claimed Obama will win any of those states over McCain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

Of course, who hasn't.  Doesn't seem to affect the bitch much.

Sure she can stay in as long as she wants, but that doesn't increase her chances of winning the nomination anymore than Paul sticking in increases his chances.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

Yes, maybe the fifty that Obama promised in March might be out by now.

As a group, they have yet to step in (which tells you more about the super delegates than the race).

Really, to end this, there needs to be an en masse movement in the triple digits to one candidate or the other.  For whatever reason, they are not doing that, as of yet.

Triple digits? Obama needs only about 50-60. Hillary meanwhile needs close to 200, and more than 80% of the remaining total.

If all the remaining superdelegates slowly trickle in at a 50/50 split (very generous to Hillary), Obama wins it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

Yes, maybe the fifty that Obama promised in March might be out by now.

As a group, they have yet to step in (which tells you more about the super delegates than the race).

Really, to end this, there needs to be an en masse movement in the triple digits to one candidate or the other.  For whatever reason, they are not doing that, as of yet.

Triple digits? Obama needs only about 50-60. Hillary meanwhile needs close to 200, and more than 80% of the remaining total.

If all the remaining superdelegates slowly trickle in at a 50/50 split (very generous to Hillary), Obama wins it.

I repeat, either candidate needs triple digits to end this:

Need to Nominate   2,026.0
B Obama                        1,878.5

A slow trickle doesn't end it and that's without FL/MI; it has to be dramatic.  A 26 delegate gain , per week, will end it in mid-June.  There has to be a dramatic shift to Obama, or he has to win net gains on the ground. 

What's his ground game been like from April (Wright/bitter) to today, a slight net loss for Obama.

He only needs about 50-60 after adding all the delegates he'll win in the remaining primaries.