NC Insider Advantage: Obama only up 3

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?type=src&source_id=34

Take a look at IA's track record in the south. Hmmm, I notice a pattern...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Only Alabama?

Mississippi:
IA - Obama +6
Actual - Obama +24

Virginia:
IA - Obama +15
Actual - Obama +28

Tennessee:
IA - Hillary +20
Actual - Hillary +13

Georgia:
IA - Obama +15
Actual - Obama +35

South Carolina:
IA - Obama +10
Actual - Obama +29

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can't dispute numbers, let's resort to ad hominems.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can't dispute numbers, let's resort to ad hominems.

Umm... aren't you the one who is disputing the numbers in this poll?

I wasn't.

I'm referring to the numbers I posted. IA consistently underpolls Obama in the south. It's a fact.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can't dispute numbers, let's resort to ad hominems.

Umm... aren't you the one who is disputing the numbers in this poll?

I wasn't.

I'm referring to the numbers I posted. IA consistently underpolls Obama in the south. It's a fact.

Now you know what it's like to deal with you and some of the other Obama supporters. It's frustrating when people don't listen to facts and logic.

I still think that Obama will win NC by 10% or more, but I hardly expect t to be a 20-30% route like it was back when he still was viewed as a Messiah by a lot of people. NC does not have as large a black electorate, and the whites will not vote for Obama like they did in VA. He'll be lucky to get 35-38%. Obama is far more damaged now than he was Super Tuesday through Wisconsin.

When have I said in this thread that it'll be by 20-30 points?

I've simply pointed out that IA consistently underpolls Obama and thus this poll is by their record likely way off. Obama winning by 10 would fit in with that. You claimed it was only Alabama, and I have debunked that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I love how nobody entered this because it makes Obama look bad.

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080504034

More than likely because it's just an all around bad poll. But thank you for at least linking the entry to this thread rather than make a whole new one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I love how nobody entered this because it makes Obama look bad.

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080504034

More than likely because it's just an all around bad poll. But thank you for at least linking the entry to this thread rather than make a whole new one.

If we eliminated all around bad polls, we wouldn't have had many for New Hampshire.  We can't be excluding polls because they don't agree with our predictions.

There's a difference between the polls being just wrong due to different dynamics (New Hampshire) and really bad disasters of polls (ARG)

IA isn't necessarily on the level of ARG, but they clearly haven't fixed their habit of chronically underpolling Obama in the south.