Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

CNN should get a big pro-Obama dump from Delaware anytime soon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Chester finally coming in. 10% in and Obama has 55%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Chester is another county CNN is slow with. The official site has 32% in and Obama ahead with 54%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

More good news in Chester, the Coatesville area (which is majority black) is not in yet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Quit the spam guys. It's already annoying enough to post to this thread since you keep getting messages about posts that have been posted already, we don't need to make it even worse with meaningless crap.

Sorry, I forgot, we are just undereducated typical white people who have no right to this thread.

We'll leave it to you elites to tell us what is best for us.

WTF? I wasn't even referring to you. I was instead talking to BushOklahoma and Angry Weasel who were basically spamming just to increase this thread's post count.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Doing some quick numbers here about the CDs in the less populated areas:
CD3 - Clinton 3-2
CD4 - The gerrymander is impossible out here, but it could well be Clinton 4-1, definitely 3-2
CD5 - There simply isn't enough rural to get it past 2-2 (62.5%) I think.
CD8 - Clinton 4-3
CD9 - Clinton 2-1 obviously
CD10 - Clinton 3-1
CD11 - Clinton 4-1
CD12 - Clinton 4-1
CD15 - Clinton 3-2
CD16 - Not enough for Obama to get out of 2-2, I suspect (still early)
CD17 - Reading won't help Clinton get enough past Dauphin - 2-2
CD18 - See CD4. Either Clinton 3-2 or 4-1
CD19 - Tied 2-2

CD6 will undoubtedly be 3-3.  Without a good breakdown, I can't say anything on CD7 or CD13.
CD1 will be 4-3 Obama and CD2 will be 7-2 Obama.
CD14, I don't know.  Who knows the gerrymander.

Obama has won PA-14.

http://www.county.allegheny.pa.us/elect/200804pri/pripres08.asp

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Quit the spam guys. It's already annoying enough to post to this thread since you keep getting messages about posts that have been posted already, we don't need to make it even worse with meaningless crap.

Sorry, I forgot, we are just undereducated typical white people who have no right to this thread.

We'll leave it to you elites to tell us what is best for us.

WTF? I wasn't even referring to you. I was instead talking to BushOklahoma and Angry Weasel who were basically spamming just to increase this thread's post count.

Aw, common, God....whose my creampuff?

Alright, ignore time...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Delaware is basically all in even though CNN isn't reporting it yet, and Obama took it over 55%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

35 at large, 20 PLEOs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama now below 60% in Dauphin. He might even drop to 58% depending on what's out is...but still rather impressive. People laughed at me for predicting he'd take it too. Looks like Rob was probably vindicated on Lancaster too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

PA-7 is still over 8% black and based on the numbers in Chester and the fact that Obama actually took Delaware with around 55% I'm pretty sure he won the county all around and thus the district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see what's surprising about Obama winning Chester or the white parts of Delaware, those areas are exactly the type of white areas he usually takes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hillary has 19 at large and 11 PLEOs. Things are going to have to change DRASTICALLY for that to change. So that's a total of 30 to Obama's 25.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So it wont flip over to 54-46 now? Its gonna stick at 55-45?

It might, but that won't affect the delegate numbers.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lancaster is 84% in and Obama still leads. Rob owned Phil big time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm almost certain PA-4 will be just +1 for Hillary. She got "only" 60% in the Allegheny part of the district, and the rest of the district is just barely above or around 70% for her.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also Hillary has 63% in the Allegheny part of PA-18.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-18 should be just +1 for Hillary too, a similar scenario to PA-4 (though she does have 63% as opposed to 60% as said above.) The only way Hillary breaks 70% is if the parts of Westmoreland and Washington in it are way more favorable to her than the counties at large.

So with both PA-4 and PA-18 +1, would that put her statewide numbers at +13?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

PA-7 is still over 8% black and based on the numbers in Chester and the fact that Obama actually took Delaware with around 55% I'm pretty sure he won the county all around and thus the district.

Chester, and the bulk of the Black areas, are in PA-1.  It's basically the waterfront to just north of the Delaware border and then along lower Cobbs Creek, Yeadon and Darby are either majority Black of have a sizable minority population.  Also, part of PA-7 is in Chester County (King of Prussia).

PA-7, and PA-13 are still out.

What I'm really interested in is PA-12 and some of those other Western PA districts.

Regardless, Hillary's not going to get the +20 that you said she needed. So is she finished or are you going to lower the bar?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

You still got owned by Rob on Lancaster though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

You still got owned by Rob on Lancaster though.

Oh wow! Great!

Here's where the big boys discuss the results and little Zach resorts to, "Haha, you got owned!" We're thinking of putting Zachy in a nice after school program where he can improve on his people skills.

You've completely ignored everything else I've posted in the thread then but since I can't expect you to read back more than 30 pages I'll give you a break on that. All I'm saying is that Rob is vindicated there since he barely posts anymore and probably won't be able to say it himself.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The outstanding areas in PA-7 appear to favor Obama except for Collingdale (but even that's almost all in), most of the areas that are still out in Delaware are the heavily black areas in PA-1. I'm assuming a majority of places still out in PA-7 are in Chester then. Besides, Collingdale is probably canceled by Radnor which has a similar margin still out.

PA-11 is surprising, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre must've not've been as bad as the counties then. Of course that means the rural parts of the counties must've been UGLY.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That looks most likely.

So yes, Walter can mock all he likes, but Kansas did in fact more than cancel out Pennsylvania.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It worked in southern states, but not Alabama. The reason it failed in Alabama though was the whites voting just as much in bloc as the blacks, and some unfortunate delegate allocation for Obama. He fell just short of winning 3 delegates in both of the 4 delegate districts and had his margin in the majority black district canceled out by that nasty abomination that is AL-4. This resulted in an even split among district delegates, with Obama's +2 among the statewide delegates making up his margin.

In all fairness though, if Obama were white and was somehow winning similar numbers of the black vote but also a decent chunk of the white vote as well, the rules would help with minorities. And it might've done so in Mississippi too.