Official 2023 General Election Results Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It is concerning to see Democrats skipping minority outreach in favor of resist liberal whites. I get that it's tough to argue with their post-Dobbs track record, and tonight will shed more light on that, but there's no reason to give up on minority outreach.

Black turnout often craters in off-year elections like this, nothing new. Also black voters aren't monotholically pro-choice.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1721957045971132785?s=20

Watch out for disastrously low turnout in Charlottesville, Blacksburg and Williamsburg. This’ll only cost Democrats about 1 state house seat and 1 state senate seat though.

Doesn't seem to be happening.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How useful are turnout anecdotes anyway?

They're not at all. It's just until we get exit polls or results us nerds don't have anything else to go based on so we just cling to whatever reports and data exist.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, only Ohio Ballot Measures will apparently have Exit Polling.

Conclusion = Edison Research are the biggest FRAUDS ever!

Could just be that no media outlets cared to have and pay for any other exit polling conducted.

I mean, I get this stuff costs money, but Ohio of all places, where the measures seem like the most likely outcome of the entire night seems like a weird place to spend money. At least chip in for KY, since the results of that exit poll would be fascinating given there is considerable likely crossover support.

The Ohio numbers are most relevant to the national picture though, which is what the news media ultimately cares about. Remember, exit polls exist not just to predict the outcome, but to show demographic data. The latter is really what the news media cares about when it comes to abortion (as far as marijuana being polled, it's just tagging along for the ride). To the extent that the KY and MS races are nationalized (particularly the former), that will be shown in the topline results.

Virginia elections are far more relevant than Ohio.

I don't think the national networks have ever done exit polling for state legislatures though.

Furthermore the results would be kind of useless since only voters in a few districts matter anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

VaTech is going to pass 2022 turnout.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722003391604232508?s=20

It's worth noting that 2022 was actually a pretty trivial election in Virginia, because there was no Senate seat up and all state offices and the legislature are in odd years, the only thing on the ballot was the US House and maybe some random county or local offices, and Blacksburg is in a Safe R House district, so hardly much reason to vote then. But this does show that heatcharger's "vibes" were wrong and turnout isn't cratering.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Chaz is now saying Lily Franklin may be favored in HD-41. He rates this a Lean GOP district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1722011687987925150?s=20

What Seat would this be for the Dems? Definitely past 52-48, right?

It's a Trump+1 seat but super polarized, Blacksburg of course is super-D and the rest of it is super-R rural countryside. So if the Democrats win it probably means rural turnout dipped and Blacksburg turnout was solid. The latter seems to be true so far. If that happens it means the Democrats are probably favored for control because it looks like all of the swing seats are ones where the Republicans rely on very Republican rural areas to counter D areas, but it's also not clear if turnout patterns in the mountainous part of western Virginia will be the same as turnout in the rest of rural Virginia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If you want to check out an interesting election in Minnesota, Minneapolis Ward 5 has a race where Keith Ellison's son is facing Victor Martinez, a right-wing fake Democrat. He's not someone who would be aligned with the more moderate wing of the council, or even a Blue Dog-type, he's just a Trump supporting Republican pretending to be a Democrat ala David Clarke. And yet he seems to actually have solid support, I noticed A LOT more signs for him than Ellison when I was doing some DoorDash orders in north Minneapolis, not a very scientific measure but there was definitely a lot of Biden voters with signs up for him, (his signs do specifically say "Democrat for City Council" mind you), I think this might be a sign that a pro-"law and order" and "anti-anti-police" message is doing well there, Jeremiah Ellison tied himself a bit too close to the police reform measure in 2021 that was badly voted down there.

I'm actually a bit torn on that race because as much as I like Ellison's father and as much as Martinez sucks, he'd at least be a consistent vote against the idiocy from the "progressive" side of the council, such as them trying to pass an identical rent control measure to the one that was an outright disaster in St. Paul. On police issues I'd like someone who sits on a middle ground between outright cop-supporting bootlickers and the "ACAB" crowd, but the only person in Minneapolis politics who seems to be doing that well is Mayor Frey and I suppose LaTrisha Vetaw and Andrea Jenkins. The measure is probably dead anyway with Frey's veto still in place, but still. Just glad I don't have to vote there.

Which says a lot because my race was atrocious, there's my complete moron of an incumbent whose solution to a housing crunch is apparently to magically will new affordable housing into existence (she's both promoting that rent control while opposing new developments and construction because that might also benefit wealthy developers in addition to renters), a guy who is now banned for life from DFL politics after his supporters violently assaulted people at the ward convention, and a guy who's running on a single issue "Abolish Bike Lanes" campaign...and the guy I voted for, a wealthy landlord who doesn't even really live in the ward (he's declaring a vacant room in a building he owns as his residence but he really lives in a big house in southwest Minneapolis) and is claiming any police reform measure are "anti-police". But he seems to be friendly with Frey and anti-stupid rent control, so I held my nose and voted for him. I expect said idiot incumbent to win easily anyway though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Beshear seems to be outrunning his 2019 numbers in the first batch from Laurel County.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Menifee did vote for Bevin in 2019, so even though it's under 20% in, this could be a good sign for Beshear. (Those rural counties are pretty homogenous so I doubt the votes vary much precinct by precinct.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's weird to make projections this far out but since Beshear seems to be outrunning his 2019 numbers consistently in all rural counties reported so far, that's probably a pretty good sign for him. Unless Cameron has a surge in the Louisville and Cincinnati suburbs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's still too early to extrapolate from the results we're seeing in Kentucky but I will say this isn't a bad starting point for Beshear.

How can you even tell? Just wondering, not snark.

He's outrunning his 2019 numbers in all the results we have so far. Not a lot of results of course, but again, definitely not a bad starting point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What was the final margin for Beshear in Laurel County back in 2019?

Bevin+45

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722030020116267275?s=20

Good signs. Now I can breathe easier and just enjoy The Hotelier tonight!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Beshear also leads in the first results in Owen County, which he lost by over 20 points in 2019.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wait until we get a county with 75+% in before getting sad or excited folks

If it's the election day vote then it's over for Cameron.

If it's the early vote then Beshear is in trouble.

I'm not sure about either of those things. Idk if there even is that much of a difference between early/ED vote in some of these deep red rural counties.

I'm not sure why people still think early vote is as dramatic a difference as 2020. Resist libs scared of COVID probably don't even exist in those counties anyway, lol.

They barely even exist in Minneapolis anymore based on the early votes here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

also lol lmao Beshear leads Casey County

I read this while a song from the Welsh melodic hardcore band Casey was playing. I'll take this as a positive sign from God.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kentucky is a Dem mirage state right?

Generally yes, but it's pretty hard to find any good news for Cameron out of anything so far, including comparing Beshear to the downballot candidates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Beshear surging on PredictIt FWIW.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I missed the last 20 minutes driving...looks good.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also Beshear winning Elliot County!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Beshear has clearly won.

Dude stop. This will be close.

I have plenty more accolades to accept.

How's that turnout crash in Blacksburg and Williamsburg?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722047246512832967

And now I can enjoy The Hotelier with a clear mind!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722047246512832967

And now I can enjoy The Hotelier with a clear mind!

I have episodes of Scooby Doo: Where Are You? and The Scooby Doo Show in the background.  Comfort shows ftw. 

But if you were in Minneapolis you could see the band that released the best emo album of the last decade!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've decided the phone is going into airplane mode during The Hotelier. One thing to keep checking countybresults during the openers but...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Come on, Elvis. I know you're out there watching your cousin run in this Mississippi race. Give him a little boost.

I can dream!

Was Elvis a Democrat?