New Jersey 2008

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's not impossible to make up by being a Northeastern moderate.

Like Tom Kean, Jr.?

The war would do Giuliani in. While he'd do better than Bush 2000 no doubt, I wouldn't be surprised if he did worse than Bush 2004 with the 9/11 bounce worn off.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only reason NJ was as close as it was in 04 was due to the Bush 9/11 bounce that he received in much of suburban NYC.  A bounce which is gone for the GOP.

How Bush did in 04 is basically the best a Republican can do in NJ.  Rudy might make it interesting, but he wouldn't win, no other Republican would have a shot in hell.

No, wrong, sorry.  We disproved that in another thread already.  This "9/11 bounce" liberals use to justify New Jersey's swing is negligable.  Stop trying to use it.  I'll go over it again if I have to, but I'd rather not.

Then link to your rebuttal.

I've seen other such attempted rebuttals before, but all of them ignore that Bush only made massive gains in the NYC metro. He made no gains in suburban Philly or Baltimore, just for two examples.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rudy is the type of Republican that voters in NJ used to be comfortable voting for, and I think they still would be. 

Like Tom Kean, Jr.