AK-AL Special election: Peltola wins!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm not sure how Gross dropping out hurt Begich? With him Peltola would've likely came in last, not first, but her votes would've mostly gone to him. Can't see many Peltola-Begich voters. And that would've likely left Begich in third place and then eliminated.

Even if we assume a typical race just consists of generic R and generic D type candidates I don't think field size matters much, if you have two of each then the lower placing Republican and lower placing Democrat are eliminated and their votes just go to the other candidate of their party. If you have two generic Rs vs a generic D then the generic D almost always will have first place but then likely falls behind after one generic R is eliminated and the other gets the vast majority of their votes. This rave just shows Palin's overall weakness as a candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Note there's only 5 precincts left. I'll assume they're heavily Native precincts in the Bush, but I can't see Peltola's lead increasing by much in raw numbers. Still 16k may be quite the steep climb for Palin with Begich voters disliking her so much.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah I'm not sure where this talking point is coming from that Gross dropping out made a huge difference. Maybe Peltola is a stronger candidate in the later rounds than Gross is, but even if the order was R/R/D/D then after the lowest D was dropped their votes would transfer and put the other D in at least second place.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/iris_samuels/status/1564753716540223489

That sounds as awkward as when a winner is named in Miss America, or a reality competition show, or something.

That's actually how every UK Parliamentary election winner is announced.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

People who complain about tactical dropouts I think miss the point, while it's true that Alaska picked a pretty weird-ass system for ranked voting (I say either do the Twin Cities model of having no first round at all and just have all the candidates run against each other in one ranked contest or the NYC/Maine model of having a traditional primary and general election but use ranked voting for both), the main reason there was such a push is Alaska has a strong tradition of third parties, and while the Alaska Independence Party and Libertarians haven't done well this year, that doesn't mean they or any other third party never will ever again, this would allow a way around the spoiler effect. It also makes the elections involving Murkowski quite neater. Now if you get a system in place where every time there's more than one Democrat or Republican making the second round and then one drops out, is that any different from just having a normal primary? It might not be what's intended, but it's hardly something that nullifies the point of the ranked voting.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FWIW the way UK Parliament election results are announced is in my opinion one of those quirky British traditions that's fine remaining a quirky British tradition but really just don't make sense anywhere else (much like how they don't allow resignations on paper so resignations have to be done by being appointed to those absolutely powerless positions which the resigner keeps until the next resignation) so I'm hoping this doesn't continue.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

DARK BRANDON STRIKES AGAIN

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Peltola hadn't even been born yet the last time anyone other than Don Young held this seat!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Red: States that Sarah Palin has lost an election in:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Another first: Peltola will be the first Alaska-born Representative for this seat.

That also makes her the first member of Congress born in the state of Alaska (Lisa Murkowski was the first member of Congress born in Alaska less than two years before it became a state.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How do you think would Don Young have voted in this election?
Do you think he is satisfied with his heir?

IIRC he and Palin did not get along at all. Palin always had a rocky relationship with Alaska's congressional delegation.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Terrible title for this documentary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Imagine walking into an Anchorage hospital 49 years ago and telling everyone that that recently born baby girl to a Yupik family was going to be the next person to represent Alaska in the US House.

And then also imagine telling them that the new Senator from Delaware just elected the previous year was going to be President when she took office.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Democrats were able to win Alabama in the lead up to the 2018 blue wave midterm elections. Republicans can't even win in Alaska in what is supposedly a red wave year.

I think the talk of a "red wave" is pure fantasy at this point. There is literally no reason to expect one anymore other than feelings. And as we all know, facts don't care about your feelings.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/_sn_n/status/1565151231676497920?t=CaEjnifXYnFcaj8Nin7zZA&am...