Is Lauren Boebert at all endangered? (user search)
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  Is Lauren Boebert at all endangered? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Lauren Boebert at all endangered?  (Read 3870 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
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Posts: 113,464
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

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« on: June 28, 2022, 11:17:22 AM »

Boebert does strike me as someone who'll eventually be gone just like MTG because such lightning rod of controversy types don't remain forever in Congress. Steve King is a recent example of one losing. Obviously more vulnerable in the primary but unlike MTG Boebert could lose in a really bad wave, it's a very polarized district with a high D floor and she only won by 6 points in 2018 before she was so controversial. So this isn't the year, but if there was a bet on her still being around at the end of the decade I'd bet against it.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,464
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2022, 11:50:20 AM »

Boebert does strike me as someone who'll eventually be gone just like MTG because such lightning rod of controversy types don't remain forever in Congress. Steve King is a recent example of one losing. Obviously more vulnerable in the primary but unlike MTG Boebert could lose in a really bad wave, it's a very polarized district with a high D floor and she only won by 6 points in 2018 before she was so controversial. So this isn't the year, but if there was a bet on her still being around at the end of the decade I'd bet against it.

Sorta like Musgrave?
Not a bad comparison actually.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,464
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2022, 06:27:29 PM »

Boebert does strike me as someone who'll eventually be gone just like MTG because such lightning rod of controversy types don't remain forever in Congress. Steve King is a recent example of one losing. Obviously more vulnerable in the primary but unlike MTG Boebert could lose in a really bad wave, it's a very polarized district with a high D floor and she only won by 6 points in 2018 before she was so controversial. So this isn't the year, but if there was a bet on her still being around at the end of the decade I'd bet against it.

FYI it was Scott Tipton in 2018 and the new district picked up some rural red Hispano county in the SE while losing a few ski counties so it moved a touch rightwards. Still I do agree she is definitely in danger in the future and I would bet on her losing in a D wave.
Typo, I meant in 2020. Although you are correct even with Tipton who was a pretty generic and inoffensive incumbent it was kind of close-ish in 2018. Of course if any Democrat beats her that seat will be just a one-term rental.
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