2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just cashed out my Cisneros shares on PredictIt and flipped to Cueller. It sucks but Cueller should win big in those two border counties that are still out and NY Times says there's only about 3000 votes left in Bexar County. If that follows the current patterns it'll give her about a ~1300 vote lead on top of her ~1500 lead. But NYT estimates 9000 votes in those two counties, and 5000 still in Webb, to lose that by just about 2800 votes she'd have to hold Cueller to under 60%.

Bleh. But who knows, maybe she'll get another chance in the 2023 special election after Cueller heads to federal prison.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cuellar closing the gap, less than 1k separates him now. I don't think there's enough of Bexar County out to save Cisneros. However if she holds him to a runoff she's probably favored.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Based on what's out I'd bet on Dolan honestly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Vance jumping up to 85¢ on PredictIt.

edit: 91¢

Yeah I just bet against him. I can see maybe arguing he has the advantage, but definitely not that high. If I'm right I win big bucks and if I'm wrong I'm only out $10.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is predictit not closer to 70-30?

What are they seeing.

PredictIt overreacts. Seize the opportunity.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Betting against Mastriano on PredictIt provides a nice opportunity even though what's in probably isn't representative.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just bet against Cawthorn on PredictIt. His strongest areas are mostly exhausted and not too strong.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah a bit more in depth look makes it appear the only way Cawthorn survives is if he has some strongholds in Buncombe County.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW I thought for a minute "oh damn I should play music from bands from Pennsylvania" for a bit but then I remembered I'm listening to Superchunk who are from North Carolina so it's still fitting my rule!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yep Cawthorn is definitely done.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1526739197381443587?t=tY-iSguNVubuRbi5HaxFK...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kenyatta is doing so poorly in western PA. He's at 3% in Allegheny, and 1% in Washington and Beaver counties. He's polling 1.17% and placing FOURTH in Westmoreland.

I get that Lamb and Fetterman both being from the west probably sapped up every vote in this region, but I don't really remember him spending anytime campaigning over here.

Well yeah, he was a stupid epic fail joke of a candidate. As was Lamb of course.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's pretty obvious y'all are pulling for oz.

Whatever happened to the concept of pulling for the best candidate in both primaries?

LOL. That's never been a thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the NY Times is correct, then almost everything out in PA-12 is in Westmoreland County, which isn't a big part of the district but Lee is losing by a lot there, and considering how close it is if that's true she's probably not pulling through. Although there's obviously going to be a recount either way.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In MN-01(R) the slightly less looney Bard Finstad leads over Jeremy Munson 46-36. Jennifer Carnahan is third with 7.3% (So much for the dream that Republicans would be stupid enough to nominate Carnahan).

Which I'm fine with because I'd rather keep Munson where he is, he's more valuable as one of the most pro-marijuana legalization Republicans in the State House than he would be as a generic R backbencher in the US House.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is Cueller up so big on PredictIt?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In MN-01(R) the slightly less looney Bard Finstad leads over Jeremy Munson 46-36. Jennifer Carnahan is third with 7.3% (So much for the dream that Republicans would be stupid enough to nominate Carnahan).

Which I'm fine with because I'd rather keep Munson where he is, he's more valuable as one of the most pro-marijuana legalization Republicans in the State House than he would be as a generic R backbencher in the US House.

But will he drop down to run for the state house?

Oh yeah he might still be running in November after all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Final numbers from Starr Co.

Yeah that's enough to erase Cisneros' lead. It's over.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So I initially supported McBath due to her being Protestant but now I learned that despite her name Bordeaux is actually Protestant too. But ah well, she still sucked based on what was said about her being with Gottheimer.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/28/us/elections/results-illinois-colorado-new-york-oklahoma-utah-mississippi-nebraska.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2022&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

We start with runoffs in SC for D Senate and R superintendent at 7 ET. More major primaries across the country begin at 8 ET.

This thread will NOT cover the Special Senate Primary in Oklahoma or the Special General Election in NE-1. Please refer to the stickied congressional special elections thread for that content.

Why? I know you started the thread but unless you are a moderator it is not up to you what can be posted in it. For better or worse this has turned into a primary night mega thread and that includes specials IMO. If I have anything to say about NE-01 (which I don't expect to as it will be a blowout) I would just as soon post it here.

It'd be best to get the mods' decision on this for there to be a standard, but I actually do agree with Wulfric here: special elections are a different beast than primaries and it's useful to have all of their results compiled in a separate megathread.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And not a single report from Johnson County.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why did "The Devil Went Down to Georgia" start running through my head?

Oh, the flashbacks of sweet, sweet victory...

Funny I just put on an Appleseed Cast album. You see I always play a band from the most relevant state when watching election results, so we need a Kansas soundtrack!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why isn't Kari Lake crashing on PredictIt? I highly doubt Pima County will bail her out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Red Eagle Politics must be melting down right now

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1554520796189671424

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can say I unlocked an achievement tonight: for the only time I can remember, I turned a would-be non-voter into a voter. Someone at the National Night Out party saw my "I voted" sticker and suddenly remembered today was election day. She got her ballot in right at the last minute.

Oh like the time I managed to do so for that lady who cleaned my apartment naked!