MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/RebsBrannon/status/1525257366287040512
Upset brewing for the AG endorsement. Wardlow was considered the favorite going in. Schultz should wrap it up next ballot. Don't know much about him but he has to be a better GE candidate than Wardlow.

Former member of the White House Counsel team under Trump (for less than a year.) So basically just like Wardlow he has toxic ties, Wardlow to anti-LGBT groups and him to the Trump Administration. Probably still a less weak candidate than Wardlow though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also seems a bit odd we're getting endorsements on a Friday...are the Republicans not having a 3-day convention? If they are and they're doing the endorsements first then what exactly do they do the next two days?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also seems a bit odd we're getting endorsements on a Friday...are the Republicans not having a 3-day convention? If they are and they're doing the endorsements first then what exactly do they do the next two days?

They supposedly have to be done by 6:00 tomorrow because of their lease.  The plan is to do all endorsements but Governor today and the Governor tomorrow. It's possible the may start the Gov race tonight.

LOL. Reminds me of how they almost got evicted from their HQ because they couldn't afford the rent

Although honestly I actually wish the DFL was doing the same this year, especially as I may leave early Sunday to be back in the Twin Cities by 5.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wouldn’t be super pumped if I was Keith Ellison tbh. He won because of a blue wave year and Wardlow was his opponent. Neither of those two will be factors this time through

Of course those abuse allegations completely evaporated and he now has a record to run on including convicting Derek Chauvin instead of the scaremongering stuff from his House career.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also access to all the internal party data with the endorsement probably means none of these candidates can beat Jensen now. That's not a necessity for established politicians like Walz in 2018 or Dayton in 2010, but none of these guys fit the bill.

Jensen has all but won the nomination.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is the GOP going to win anything down ballot this year? The party simply died in MN over the past 15 years.

Their best chance would be Jim Schultz for AG. He looks like a pretty generic corporate lawyer who might be able to beat Keith Ellison. Ellison still probably a slight favorite IMO.

I'd say their strongest candidate is probably the guy for State Auditor who looks like a generic businessman type and doesn't have any toxic ties or a paper trail like Doug Wardlow's anti-LGBT groups, Jensen's anti-vaxx and medical controversy or even Schultz's experience in the Trump Admin. However no one really pays attention to this race and it just goes based on coattails, and there's not really much you can attack Julie Blaha on.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also worth noting Jensen has openly associated with some people arrested for being involved in the January 6 Capitol riot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Walz and Flanagan have been officially endorsed for renomination.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cory Hepola meanwhile (remember him?) also has not filed and dropped out: https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/cory-hepola-abandons-bid-to-become-minnesota-governor

His campaign was going absolutely nowhere and nothing but bland platitudes so at least he had sense here.

Although maybe not, sounds like it may not have been voluntary since 8 days ago he only had about 500 signatures out of the 2000 needed. LOL.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/minnesota/walz-ellison-keep-fundraising-edge-over-gop-challengers

Walz has $4.46 million on hand and Jensen has $663k. And for Attorney General Keith Ellison has over $500k and Schultz has about $110k and Wardlow with about $36k.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The pot parties' votes don't really come based on ideology. They're effectively just protest votes. Look at the 2020 Senate race results outstate. Most of their voters were voting for Trump. Tina Smith actually won more counties than Biden.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Haha. Desperation.

https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1567342830514831360?t=z3AdiVsHxr51ilU2EznSi...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The thing about Jensen ads too is that he needs to make them count because he's very low on money. After the primary and him and Walz officially became nominees Walz waived the state public funding program which would've given him $245k. Because of this Jensen actually gets his share meaning he gets $490k. Except Walz has over $5 million on hand and is raising well over that $245k a month. Jensen meanwhile can't raise any more money, so he's stuck with the $490k plus the $580k he had remaining at the primary. So he had barely over a million dollars and that was in mid-August. Walz has five times that and he can keep fundraising.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The thing about Jensen ads too is that he needs to make them count because he's very low on money. After the primary and him and Walz officially became nominees Walz waived the state public funding program which would've given him $245k. Because of this Jensen actually gets his share meaning he gets $490k. Except Walz has over $5 million on hand and is raising well over that $245k a month. Jensen meanwhile can't raise any more money, so he's stuck with the $490k plus the $580k he had remaining at the primary. So he had barely over a million dollars and that was in mid-August. Walz has five times that and he can keep fundraising.

Obv Walz is safe but for some reason I have a gut feeling Simon is in danger, at least if we assume Ellison is losing. Thoughts?

Ellison is actually the strongest downballot Dem based on that poll which sounds weird but makes sense when you consider people know who he is and he has accomplishments to cite. And while Schultz isn't as flawed a candidate as Wardlow he's still easy to attack for Trump Admin ties and post-Dobbs behavior.

Simon's opponent is a lunatic but most people probably don't even know who she is or much about her or much about Simon since it's a low profile office hence the low polling numbers. But it's tough to see many Walz/Ellison voters voting for her, even if they aren't familiar with her they'll thus probably just vote party line. That's usually how SoS goes. State Auditor is weird because for some reason Republicans nominate their least bad candidates for it. Blaha's 2018 opponent was even endorsed by the Star Tribune which is near unheard of for a non-incumbent Republican. But since most people don't even know what that office does they don't give answers on polls (hence both under 40) and just vote party line. This year again Republicans nominated someone most non-objectionable for it by modern GOP standards but if Walz is winning by double digits and Ellison wins too there just won't be enough crossover voters for an office that rarely gets them. SoS is similar actually.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/senmattklein/status/1570577421925240832?t=9s-X_3Rk7_uNLh-daJ...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ellison is actually the strongest downballot Dem based on that poll which sounds weird but makes sense when you consider people know who he is and he has accomplishments to cite.

?

Most notably he convicted Derek Chauvin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/mbrodkorb/status/1574425517603831809?t=iFZASeD2HmEpPbWwSHL_u...

This sounds like a logical and winning strategy. Remember how Republicans never talked about abortion prior to the Dobbs decision?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The gaslighting about abortion is obvious crud to us, people who are informed politically. But I'm not convinced the voters are that smart. GOP is using a tactic here of "my opponent is desperately talking about x instead of more important issues". I'm not saying Jensen is favored but it might not be such a bad strategy.

Walz mostly IS talking about other issues though. Jensen is getting dragged on abortion from PACs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The gaslighting about abortion is obvious crud to us, people who are informed politically. But I'm not convinced the voters are that smart. GOP is using a tactic here of "my opponent is desperately talking about x instead of more important issues". I'm not saying Jensen is favored but it might not be such a bad strategy.

Walz mostly IS talking about other issues though. Jensen is getting dragged on abortion from PACs.

My point is it's not a dumb strategy. It's like Reagans "Here you go again!"

There's no proof it's working. And Jensen's campaign is so bad he's just looking incompetent as a whole.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does Jensen honestly think this will help him?
https://twitter.com/bringmethenews/status/1585265091359956995?t=pyJwHSyPjbR_ub61...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is a little amusing. Remember Lori Swanson?

https://twitter.com/LoriSwansonMN/status/1588000332059185152?t=-XNMqQb8VVFrl13xE...

This is literally her first tweet in over two years. She didn't even tweet something similar about voting for Biden.

This is obviously in direct response to Jim Schultz saying that no former Minnesota AG has endorsed Ellison. So clearly someone contacted her just so she could say "yeah I voted for him and Mike Hatch will too" which is pretty weak as endorsements go but almost certainly true (I do know Hatch disliked Ellison and even almost ran against him until other candidates jumped in but he's still fundamentally a party guy.)

Just funny to see Swanson make a sort of cameo after basically retiring from politics and public life entirely, I assumed she just took a job with some super high paying law firm and had no reason to pop in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kim Crockett meanwhile, who actually lost by the largest margin of any statewide candidate said this:

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1590415741915832320?t=LLhMeh1d2cjVGs1...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I mentioned a couple reasons before why I think Blaha did so poorly but one I overlooked and didn't mention is that a some voters might've blamed her for the Feeding Our Future scandal.

For those unaware Feeding Our Future was a Minnesota non-profit that provided meals to low-income children and received large funding from federal COVID-related grants. However the director then committed fraud by vastly overstating how many children they were feeding to get more grants, and then she a bunch of individual site directors just pocketed the extra money. The feds recently caught on and have indicted over 50 people for fraud related to it.

Now there's very little Blaha could've done about this since it was federal funds and just symptomatic of the lack of federal oversight in regards to these COVID related programs, I bet more fraud in other states will be uncovered soon. But it's not hard to see how some voters might think she could've.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1590528705511968768
The 2022 MN Gov map looks a lot more like Biden 2020 than Walz 2018. Rural parts of the state continue to trend right but it will not matter if Dems continue to get 70% in Hennepin/Ramsey.

LMAO he almost won Lakeville!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593019859407089664
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593030124328595456
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593037076978896898
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1593040474688065538
Also that sole Biden/Jensen district is the closest one that exists to the one Jensen represented when he was in the State Senate.

And 34A voting for Walz is just.....WOW. Even as close as it is...that seat probably voted for Romney by like 20 points. It's the northern edge of Hennepin County and consists entirely of formerly hyper-GOP hyper-partisan exurbs.

As for the other seats he mentioned, 3 is the one in the northwest corner of the state and is one of those ancestrally D trending R areas but still not all that strongly D even for Trump, and 32 is an Anoka County district based mostly around Blaine (very swingy city) but with parts of hyper-R Ham Lake also attached. R candidate won it by 6 points regardless. 48, the aforementioned sole Biden/Jensen one that Jensen himself mostly represented is based in Carver County, a former R stronghold based on a coalition of ancestral R rural German areas and affluent suburbanites that has now strongly trended D with the suburbanites jumping ship.