2007 Governor's Races

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looking a bit ahead, it looks like 2007 might be interesting in this area. Unless he messes up badly somewhere Barbour will easily be elected in Mississippi. The other two aren't quite the same though.

In Louisiana, Blanco is pretty much screwed, and honestly the only way we're going to hold this one is we can eliminate her in the first round (not too difficult under Louisiana's electoral law). But even if that happens, holding it will probably be a long shot, unless the candidate is Breaux. Basically if Breaux steps in, we hold it, otherwise they take it.

In Kentucky, its the opposite situation, unless he can pull a miracle Fletcher is a dead man walking. The question is who will run against him, Chandler would probably beat him this time but he might want to stay in his House seat and run for Senate sometime when one of the seats open up. The other likely candidate is Mongiardo, the guy who almost beat Bunning. My guess is that one of them will run and beat Fletcher, the other will run for the next open Senate seat.

So what do you think?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

KY-Fletcher doesn't run for re-election (or is successfully hallenged in the primary).  GOP hold.

Even an open race (which is unlikley) would favour the Dems, what GOP candidates are there who cant be matched by stronger Democrat opponants?

I'm not that familiar with Kentucky politicans so I couldn't answer that question, but Democrats seem to have no success in the state with the losses of Clooney, Mongiardo and whatever that guy who ran against Northup's name is and the fact that their only Democratic Congressman is a Blue Dog.

Clooney lost because he was way too liberal for the district (which is actually the most conservative district in the state, the fact that even a Democrat as conservative as Lucas held it was a bit of a fluke), and that his main claim to fame was that his son is famous, especially since his son is much more liberal than he was. Northrup barely held on like she keeps doing because she's fairly entrenched (I hope the Democrats get a very strong well funded opponent to her now, this is probably our best chance to take her out) and her opponents are getting weaker. As for Mongiardo, the guy went from a race he was considered to have absolutely no chance in to a 2 point loss, hardly something to be ashamed of.

Of course the only Congressman is a Blue Dog, Kentucky is going to elect liberals. But it can still elect Democrats. I think every state office except the Governor and one other is still held by the Democrats (and they held every one until the 2003 elections). It's really the Republicans that lack strong candidates, just about every one they got is already in office and most don't want to leave. A bunch of those House districts are vulnerable once open too, especially the 2nd, (Mongiardo is from there too, hopefully he takes a stab at it if it's soon). Fletcher's victory was basically a fluke to begin with.